"My heart hurts. I just lost on that Dixon score."
Got a lot of texts, tweets and emails like that last week, as underperforming superstars -- or facing Le'Veon Bell -- ended a lot of fantasy seasons, including two of mine.
I wasn't surprised. I find that sometimes, that's the role I play in people's lives. They like the advice. They like the column or the podcast or the Sunday show. But sometimes they just want someone to talk to -- someone who understands what they are going through. And so, from Sunday night through Tuesday, my inbox exploded, my phone lit up, my Twitter was going nuts.
"My heart hurts."
"I'm so depressed."
"%#$^%#%!!!"
If I am being honest, I had some of the same sort of feelings. Been a rough month for me, both personally and professionally, with a variety of things going on in my life. So I understood and appreciated as the messages rolled in.
They were all different, yet they were basically all the same; talking about their pain, their hurt, their disappointment.
They were all the same ... except one.
Brian Kenny's note was different.
Brian is an avid fantasy player, playing in three different leagues and running two of them, including "The League" (named after the show), which is a close-knit group of buddies, and the "IRHC," named after the Illini Roller Hockey Club, where many of the league members first met. Brian's wife, Ashley, is in that one, and in fact took home the title in 2015.
As for many of us, these leagues are important to Brian and Ashley in a big, big way. But their reasons are probably a lot different from yours or mine.
Brian writes:
Matthew,
I just got back from lunch and thought to myself, "Hey, maybe Love/Hate is up. Let's see what Matthew thinks this week!"
Then I read the article, and I'm sitting at my desk a bit tearful. You did the same thing to me last year with your amazing article about your daughters, which I then shared with my wife. I can get fantasy advice anywhere, but you add a human element to things and make it fun. Your article went right to my heart, and I immediately wanted to write.
After reading the rest of Brian's note, we spoke on the phone for over an hour, and with his blessing, I am sharing his story with you.
Brian's wife, Ashley, gave birth to a daughter, Elizabeth, in July of 2013. She was almost four weeks premature, and, as Brian puts it, "That's when everything began."
By everything, Brian means that at a routine doctor visit at three months, they heard what every parent fears.
They had found some "abnormalities," and the doctors wanted to look at them further.
That set off an almost seven-month odyssey for Brian, Ashley and young Elizabeth. Blood tests, MRIs, many different specialists and more than 30 different hospital visits to try to figure out what was wrong with Elizabeth. Finally, they figured it out.
Craniosynostosis.
And so, at 7 months old, young Elizabeth underwent an operation performed by a brain surgeon and a plastic surgeon. She made it through. But unfortunately, she didn't get any better.
More tests, more visits, more doctors. And while it was very tough on the young family, they kept an upbeat attitude. "Yes, there were some dark days, but what keeps driving you is hope. Hope that one of these doctors can figure out what's wrong with my little girl and make her better."
And then, on Oct. 22, 2014, smack dab in the middle of fantasy football season, "That's the day my life would never be 'normal' again," says Brian.
As Brian and Ashley sat in a doctor's office with Elizabeth, they were told their daughter had been diagnosed with mucolipidosis type 2, a genetic defect that affects just one in 400,000 children.
There is no known cure, they were told. Elizabeth will never walk, she will never talk, she will never crawl, they are told. And the disease will kill her, they are told. Most likely before she turns 9.
"I am living with a terminal child."
I can hear the pain in his voice as Brian tells me this. "It's hard to go 10 minutes during the day without thinking about it. My life will simply never be 'normal' again."
Elizabeth is 3 years old now and still just 20 pounds. She can't talk, but she has figured out how to communicate with a series of sounds and pointing. And she has just come out of another surgery, this one to take out her tonsils to try to help her sleep better.
In addition to the obvious, horrible burden of what something like this does to a young family, there was one aspect I had never considered. They feel eerily alone. Obviously it is very hard to find other families going through what they are, and by choice, they had not told very many people in their lives about Elizabeth's condition, until now.
"You feel like you're on an island sometimes, because we've been scared of sharing our story. We still want to be Brian and Ashley, you know? We don't want people treating us differently."
Which makes complete sense. But it also means even the most innocent conversation can cause pain.
"A guy at work who has no idea about her condition will ask, 'So, is she running around, keeping you busy, ha ha?' And I'm thinking like, 'Well, no, she can't walk.'" In order to keep his life private, Brian says, he has to figure out standard development for a child, so he knows what she's supposed to be doing in what time frame, so when asked innocent questions like that, he doesn't have to get into it.
I can't imagine what life is like for Brian and Ashley and what it must be like to go through their everyday existence. Which makes sense why fantasy football has become such an important escape to them.
"One of our Sunday-morning routines is to play with our daughter and her toys while watching Fantasy Football Now. Fantasy has become so important to me as an escape, all the way down to reading things on my phone while my wife sleeps next to me. Other than family and job, I don't know what else to pour my energy into or what else to do to try to keep me sane. I listen to your podcast every day, read articles and stalk Twitter, trying to give myself an edge. In the grand scheme of things, none of it means anything, yet at the same time it means so, so, much to me."
When, at the end of our conversation, I asked Brian if I could share his story, I told him I was happy to either leave it be, or change any details he wanted if he didn't want it to become public. I told him to discuss with Ashley and get back to me, no pressure either way.
In a follow-up note, he wrote, "I initially wrote to you because I just wanted to say thanks. I know you get a lot of criticism from people via Twitter or email or what have you when your picks 'miss,' but I hope you don't let that bother you and continue to do what you do.
"I am thankful that you, Field, Stephania, Daniel and the entire FF Now Sunday crew help me 'escape' and give me something fun to look forward to and enjoy with my wife and my friends. But when you reached out and wanted to write about it, we decided to go public to try and pay it forward.
"As you are well aware, rare diseases severely lack funding and awareness, so this disease can use all the publicity it can get. Maybe someday this, along with cancer and all other terrible diseases, will have a cure or better treatment so in future generations, families can have better outlooks. Either way, I hope this story can help people out there and bring more positivity to this world. Lord knows we could use it.
God Bless,
Brian Kenny
Elmhurst, IL"
No, Brian, thank you, and to Ashley and Elizabeth as well, for reminding us, as we look back on our season or head to Week 15 with a few fantasy predictions, what actually matters.
Quarterbacks I love in Week 15
Kirk Cousins, Redskins: Ask anyone who was sent packing in their league last week. In the playoffs, especially, you need consistency. Well, there are only two quarterbacks who currently have a streak of eight straight 15-plus-point games. Aaron Rodgers and ... Kirk Cousins. Throwing a deep ball as well as any QB in the league these days, Kirk is helped by a strong run game, terrific receivers and a suspect defense that keeps him throwing. All are in play Monday night, as the Panthers bring their 27th-ranked pass defense the past four weeks to Washington. Since Week 4, the Panthers are bottom three in completions, passing touchdowns and completion percentage allowed, plus bottom six in most fantasy points against. Fire him up.
Derek Carr, Raiders: If you own him and you're still alive ... well-done. Yes, I know he was brutal on a short week traveling to Arrowhead (ding!) in Week 14, but prior to that he had scored at least 18 points in three straight and four of the previous five (the Denver game being the only exception). In that five-week span, from Weeks 8-13, Carr was tied with Tom Brady as the fifth-best QB in fantasy. This week, Carr gets a bounce-back opportunity against a Chargers team that he lit up for 317 yards and two scores in Week 5. San Diego has the sixth-fewest sacks on the season, and when NOT pressured, Carr has 20 TD passes and just one interception. Now that I have written it out and looked at it for a while, that seems like a pretty good ratio. The Bolts have coughed up an average of 17 fantasy points to opposing QBs in home games, and as you'll soon see -- not to brag, kids, but that's what's called foreshadowing -- I'm expecting a shootout here. So while I understand the trepidation, I'm still driving the Carr because it's Week 15 and I'm too tired to try to beat a lame pun like that. He's a solid, low-end QB1 to me.
Philip Rivers, Chargers: That's six straight games with multiple touchdown passes for Rivers. He's better in leagues that don't count turnovers, obviously, but he's back at home this week and he'll need to throw a ton in this one, both to keep up with the Raiders and because I don't think the Chargers will run that effectively without Melvin Gordon. The Raiders are giving up the 11th-most QB fantasy points per game, but they've looked better recently. However, take a closer look at the opposition: Alex Smith, Tyrod Taylor, a struggling Cam Newton (who still put up 19 on them) and Brock Osweiler. The Raiders gave up 359 yards and four scores to Rivers in Week 5, and while it may take 50 attempts (and there will be a pick or two along the way), Rivers will also wind up with solid, low-end QB1 numbers.
Others receiving votes: Eli Manning at home has been a thing this year. Yes, he struggled against Dallas, but prior to that he had multiple touchdown passes or had thrown for at least 350 yards in all six of his home games. Meanwhile, the Lions are 21st against the pass the past four weeks. Detroit is tough against the run, so Eli will have to throw to move the ball. I like his chances to do so on Sunday. ... Among my favorite streamers this week is Tyrod Taylor, who, you know, faces Cleveland. The Browns have allowed 19 fantasy points a game to opposing QBs, most in the league, including a league-high 11 games of allowing at least 15 points. A healthy Sammy Watkins can only help. ... Super-desperate deep leaguers could consider Alex Smith, who is usually a safe bet for double-digit points; he gets a Titans team that has allowed at least 15 points to QBs in eight straight games.
Quarterbacks I hate in Week 15
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: So, for the season, the 27th-best quarterback in fantasy is Brock Osweiler. Alex Smith and Sam Bradford are tied for QB25. I bring that up because, on the road this season, Roethlisberger has been QB26. The Bengals are playing better since their Week 9 bye, allowing fewer than 12 points per game to opposing QBs, including games against Eli Manning, Tyrod Taylor and Joe Flacco, so, you know, legit NFL QBs. In what should be a low-scoring, hard-fought divisional battle, it's worth noting that Ben has been no better than QB13 in four of his past five divisional road games. Anyone with Ben's skills and players like Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell and Ladarius Green as teammates has a shot, but he's a risky play in a fantasy playoff game, so he's outside my top 10 this week.
Matthew Stafford, Lions: Look, there's only so much future President Jim Bob Cooter can do. I have no idea whether Stafford's injured finger will affect him, and the Giants' defense is playing as well as any in the league right now, giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs and having allowed more than one touchdown pass just once in the past eight games. Stafford's average depth of target (aDOT) is just 33rd of 36 QBs this season, and those short passes don't really work against the G-Men, as they own the second-lowest completion percentage against on passes thrown less than 10 yards downfield and have allowed a league-low three scores on such passes (every other defense has given up at least six). Stafford is merely a mid-tier QB2 this week.
Drew Brees, Saints: Another guy with home/road split issues, I don't know how you can trust him after the past two weeks, in which he scored just 11 fantasy points total. Possibly not having Michael Thomas doesn't help, and neither does the matchup, as the Cardinals have given up just six touchdown passes in seven home games this season and the fourth-fewest points to opposing QBs this season. Brees is another mid-level QB2 for me.
Running backs I love in Week 15
Thomas Rawls, Seahawks: Rawls is averaging 6.4 yards per carry over the past two weeks, and I don't expect Russell Wilson to throw five interceptions this week and suddenly have to abandon the running game. Just the opposite, actually. Traveling on a short week is never ideal, especially when you've just fired your coach and when you are heading to one of the toughest places to play in the NFL against a team that just got embarrassed by the Packers. That's what the Rams are up against. They have allowed a RB rushing touchdown in three straight games and during the past five weeks they have allowed 4.96 yards per carry (third most in the NFL) and 645 rushing yards (fourth most). Rawls should bounce back here with a strong performance.
LeGarrette Blount, Patriots: You know that old adage that you can't trust New England running backs? Well, with at least 18 carries in six of his past seven games, it would certainly appear you can trust Blount. As we've said all year, you can run on Denver, as the Broncos have allowed at least 110 rushing yards in five of the past seven. On the road in Denver, it's always dangerous to try to predict what the Patriots will do, but for the majority of the season, they have given Blount lots of run. He has 10 games with at least 18 carries and has 13 touchdowns in those games. The Broncos are 27th against the run but first against the pass the past four weeks, so yeah, Blount is a RB1 for me this week, even in a tough road game.
Bilal Powell, Jets: This assumes, of course, that Matt Forte does not play. With Forte out, expect a big workload for a running back averaging 5.8 yards per carry this season (best among running backs with at least 75 carries) and who gained yardage on 26 of 29 carries last week, a rate higher than Le'Veon Bell in Week 14. Wanting to take pressure off their young quarterback, expect the Jets to use Powell in a variety of ways to exploit a Dolphins defense that is allowing the second-most yards per carry, the third-most rushing yards per game and opposing running backs to catch 73 percent of their targets. He's a strong RB2 with RB1 upside.
Others receiving votes: San Diego has allowed the third-most running back rushing scores this season, so with a heavy workload intact, expect another strong game from Latavius Murray. ... While I don't think it's a competitive game, I do think a lot of points are scored in the SF-ATL game, so Carlos Hyde (Atlanta has given up nine RB rushing scores in its past eight games) and Tevin Coleman (six times the 49ers have allowed more than 125 RB rushing yards and multiple RB rushing scores) should be on your radar. ... If you're searching around in flex territory, Mike Gillislee is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and is the Bills' red zone back. The Browns have given up more than 20 running back points in eight games this season, second most in the NFL. ... Speaking of that game, I kind of like Isaiah Crowell, off a 118-total-yard game, as Buffalo has struggled against the run recently (as anyone who faced Le'Veon Bell last week is well aware) and they may not have DT Kyle Williams for a second straight game.
Running backs I hate in Week 15
Todd Gurley, Rams: Free Gurley! We can only hope whoever the next head coach of the Rams is either has a great offensive mind or hires someone who does to free up Gurley and not turn him into Trent Richardson. But in the meantime, I am not excited about his prospects facing a Seattle team that has allowed just three running back rushing touchdowns at home this season. Gurley had 51 toothless rushing yards when these teams met in Week 2 and I don't expect much more here. The Seahawks allow the third-fewest yards per carry after first contact, while the Rams average the third-fewest yards BEFORE first contact. Bleah. Gurley is simply a hope-for-a-score RB 3 in Week 15.
Mark Ingram, Saints: Due to Ingram's inconsistent usage (just 12 touches or fewer in three of the past four games and trending in the wrong direction after last week's eight-touch game), I am having a hard time imaging a ton of success against a Cardinals team that is second in fewest fantasy points allowed, allows the second-fewest yards per carry since their Week 9 bye and has given up just one RB rushing touchdown at home all season long (Week 1 versus New England).
Ryan Mathews, Eagles: I know, he has had success. I know, Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles are both banged up. And I know, New England just had success running against the Ravens. But even though the Ravens are dealing with a short week, I am not excited about Mathews' prospects here. The Ravens allow the fewest yards per carry, the fewest RB points this season and just two RB rushing touchdowns in the past 11 games. Playing an important game at home, I could see Baltimore getting up big here, causing Philly to abandon the run and making Mathews (who has just one game this season with more than 80 rushing yards) a risk/reward flex for Week 15.
Wide receivers I love in Week 15
T.Y. Hilton, Colts: He's here just in case people were going to get cute because it's Minnesota. In addition to just being a no-brainer start every week, about half of Hilton's receptions and touchdowns this season have come from the slot. The Vikings have struggled there, as they've allowed 49 receptions, 556 yards and five touchdowns to the slot in the past six games. Hilton is averaging 10 targets and 99 yards a game since Week 9, so he's locked in as a WR1 this week.
Sammy Watkins, Bills: Well, if I am on Tyrod Taylor, it makes sense I like his No. 1 receiver. Finally looking healthy, expect even more targets for Watkins this week against a Browns team that has given up a league-high 30 touchdown passes, including another league-high 16 of them on passes thrown at least 10 yards. Watkins has played 96 percent of the snaps the past two weeks and has been targeted on 25 percent of Taylor's throws, so he should have a good shot at getting into the end zone for a second straight week.
Jamison Crowder, Redskins: As you know from my Cousins write-up, I like a lot of points to be scored in the Panthers-Redskins game, especially from Cousins. So even though Crowder is coming off a down week, I'm back on him as a WR2. No player in the NFL has more fantasy points from the slot than Crowder and look at what the slot has done to Carolina the past eight games: 77 catches, 802 yards and 10 touchdowns. Or, to put in another way, more than 17 fantasy points a game to the slot in that time frame. He hasn't had back-to-back games with single-digit fantasy points since Weeks 4 and 5, and since he's coming off a three-point game last week, I'm not expecting that streak to be broken on Monday.
Others receiving votes: It's not a shock as I like the wideouts of the quarterbacks I like, so yeah, fire up Tyrell Williams (four scores in his past five) and Dontrelle Inman (touchdowns in three straight) this week. ... The Jets have struggled against the slot, giving up 301 yards and a score the past three weeks, so even with Matt Moore under center, I'm higher than normal on Jarvis Landry. ... Even if Julio Jones plays, I still like Taylor Gabriel's chances against a 49ers team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Wide receivers I hate in Week 15
A.J. Green, Bengals: Playing in a cold-weather game with a not fully healed hamstring against the No. 1 scoring defense and the No. 6 pass defense over the past six weeks? He's a big name who needs only one play to make the day worth it, but he's also the franchise and I'm not convinced he plays a full complement of snaps, or even makes it through the game, because if he feels something twinge, they're pulling him ASAP. If this were the middle of the season, I'd probably risk it, but in the playoffs? Too risky.
Alshon Jeffery, Bears: Insanely cold-weather game for a guy with one touchdown on the season, just three games of more than 80 yards receiving, and the better-than-we-thought-but-still-not-amazing Matt Barkley under center? This is the definition of getting cute. I'd need to see the Barkley-to-Jeffrey connection work once before I was willing to risk my playoff life on it. Jeffery is the ultimate risk/reward WR3 this week.
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans: I feel like all the Hopkins owners should meet up with all the Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson and Todd Gurley owners and have a big group therapy session. Before we organize that (I'll bring the punch and pie), you should take a moment and congratulate yourself for playing in Week 15 after using a first-round pick on Hopkins. Hopefully he gets a better QB next year, but in the meantime, I hate the matchup with an underrated Jags secondary that allows the sixth-fewest points per game to opposing wide receivers, is eighth against the pass the past four weeks and held Hopkins to five catches for 48 yards in Week 10.
Tight ends I love in Week 15
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers: Landing in the top six among NFL among tight ends in receptions, yards and touchdowns since the Bucs' Week 6 bye, Brate should find success against a Cowboys team that is top 10 in most points allowed to opposing tight ends.
Zach Ertz, Eagles: No, it's not a great matchup with Baltimore, but I don't care. Here's the entire list of players in the NFL with more targets over the past four weeks: Julian Edelman. That's it. That's the entire list. With 42 catches for 414 yards and two TDs in his past six games, Ertz has finally fulfilled the promise we all knew was there. He's a top-10 play for me.
Others receiving votes; It's a testament to how bad Greg Olsen has been that he's even in this section, but yeah, he's been brutal. That said, I like his chances on Monday Night as Washington has given up 100 yards and/or a touchdown to tight ends in four of the past six games. Speaking of Monday night, you're already starting Jordan Reed if you have him, but no team targets the tight end position more than Washington. Considering the Panthers give up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, Vernon Davis is actually interesting in a TE2-with-upside sort of way.
Tight ends I hate in Week 15
Martellus Bennett, Patriots: Bennett has just 15 targets -- I repeat, TARGETS -- in the past four games that Rob Gronkowski has not played, and only Travis Kelce has produced more than 50 yards in the past seven games against the Broncos. Bennett is a TE2 this week, not a top-10 play.
C.J. Fiedorowicz, Texans: Long a popular streamer, I am looking elsewhere as CJF has had more than 45 yards just once since the team's Week 9 bye. As mentioned in the Hopkins post, Jacksonville actually has a good pass defense and is top-10 in terms of fewest points allowed to opposing tight ends. Now, the Jags did give up two scores to tight ends the last time these two played, but neither was to Fiedorowicz. That's sort of fluky, but whatever. It's the playoffs, and his quarterback is Brock Osweiler.
Note: I know, not a great list for "TE hate," but they're all terrible. And it's the state of the position that anyone with a shot at a score has basically the same value as 15 other tight ends.
Defenses I love in Week 15
Seattle Seahawks: Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's not true. At home against a Rams team that just lost its coach and is traveling on a short week, I like Seattle's chances, especially when you consider the Rams have allowed at least eight fantasy points to opposing defenses in six straight games.
New York Giants: The Giants have the most total points among defenses since Week 7. They're as hot as any team in the NFL right now and are at home against a banged-up Matthew Stafford, who has traditionally struggled outside of a dome.
Others receiving votes: Over the past three weeks, the Tampa Bay Bucs are fantasy's top-ranked defense, and only the Rams have surrendered more fantasy points to opposing defenses than the Dallas Cowboys the past two weeks. I should have put the Buffalo Bills D in the actual "love" section above, considering they are still available in about 30 percent of leagues, and you know, the Browns.
Defenses I hate in Week 15
Carolina Panthers: With a total of just seven fantasy points in their six road games, this doesn't look like a great spot for Carolina in what should be a high-scoring game. Opposing D/STs are averaging just 2.3 points per game versus Washington this season.
Kansas City Chiefs: The loss of Derrick Johnson is a big one for Kansas City, and the effectiveness and mobility of DeMarco Murray and Marcus Mariota, respectively, should help Tennessee with ball control and not give up a lot of sacks. You'll basically need Tyreek Hill to run one back (always a possibility) for the K.C. D to pay off.