ELMONT, N.Y. -- Christophe Clement is uncertain if American Pharoah will capture the Belmont Stakes and complete a sweep of the Triple Crown.
He's quite sure, however, that the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner will face a formidable challenge from a "fresh" horse in the mile-and-a-half Test of the Champion on June 6 -- and he speaks from firsthand experience.
Just last year, the 49-year-old trainer ended California Chrome's Triple Crown hopes when he sent out Tonalist to win the 2014 Belmont Stakes as the California-bred suffered a cut foot and could do no better than finish in a dead heat for fourth.
Tonalist had not competed in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and his victory left California Chrome's co-owner Steven Coburn so bitter and infuriated that in a nationally televised postrace rant, he smeared Tonalist and other horses that did not run in the Derby and Preakness, calling them "cheaters" and said they "took the coward's way out." Clement, of course, did nothing wrong, and a year later, he still brushes aside Coburn's outburst with no malice.
The French-born trainer merely followed a path that has become the best and most direct road to success in the final leg of the Triple Crown. Tonalist's victory marked the ninth straight year in which a horse that skipped the Preakness won the Belmont, and the way Clement sees it, that streak is anything but a coincidence.
"There's no doubt it's an advantage to have a fresh horse going into the Belmont," Clement said. "It is amazing what horses go through in the Triple Crown. They have the preps. Then they ship in for the Kentucky Derby and have a tough race. Then they ship to Pimlico for another tough race. Then they go to Belmont. It's three different tracks in five weeks. That gives the fresh horse a big edge."
The Belmont Stakes and Preakness could not be more different in terms of the résumé of the horses that have been victorious in them. American Pharoah was the sixth straight Preakness winner, and the 13th in the past 15 years, who also raced in the Derby.
Those numbers explain why American Pharoah's trainer, Bob Baffert -- who has won the Derby four times and the Preakness six times -- describes the middle jewel as "the easy one" in the series.
Baffert's one win out of nine Belmont Stakes starters underscores the degree of difficulty in the mile-and-a-half ordeal of the Belmont, especially for horses that had the Derby and Preakness on their dance card.
Afleet Alex, who won the Preakness in 2005, was the last horse who raced at Pimlico in the middle jewel, then prevailed three weeks later in the Belmont. He is also one of only three Belmont Stakes winners in the past 18 years who has raced in all three legs of the Triple Crown.
Of the past nine Belmont winners, five, like Tonalist, were making their first start in the Triple Crown. The other four raced in the Derby -- finishing no better than fourth there -- then rested for five weeks before they uncorked their winning efforts in the Belmont.
While Preakness winners like American Pharoah and California Chrome have just three weeks' rest between races and are making their third start in five weeks, 11 of the past 15 Belmont winners had at least four weeks of rest.
On another front, Tonalist was the second horse in five years to use the Peter Pan -- a graded stakes contested at Belmont Park four weeks before the Triple Crown finale -- as a steppingstone to victory in the Belmont. Yet Clement believes an extra measure of rest, as opposed to success over the racetrack, is the crucial element in the mile-and-a-half classic.
"I think being fresh helped Tonalist more than the race over the track," said Clement, who will not have a starter in this year's Triple Crown. "We had originally planned to run him in the Derby, but then we missed the Wood Memorial and the plan became to run in the Peter Pan and then the Belmont."
As much as American Pharoah was peerless in the Preakness and the Derby, it's the specter of those last nine Belmonts that has inspired confidence in the rivals lining up to face him.
Of the prospective challengers, only Preakness runner-up Tale of Verve raced at Pimlico.
Frosted (fourth), Materiality (sixth), Keen Ice (seventh), Mubtaahij (eighth), Carpe Diem (10th) and Frammento (11th) have not raced since finishing fourth or worse in the Derby and will have five weeks of rest heading into the Belmont. Materiality and Carpe Diem are trained by Pletcher, winner of the 2013 Belmont with Palace Malice, who also had five weeks' rest after finishing 12th in the Derby.
None of them are an Eclipse Award winner like American Pharoah. None of them can boast a six-race winning streak like the Zayat Stables homebred. None of them are in position to sweep the Triple Crown.
But they are fresh, and on June 6 that might matter most in the final furlongs of a mile-and-a-half test that will determine whether racing can finally celebrate a 12th Triple Crown winner or bemoan a 14th near-miss since 1978.
"I think American Pharoah was dominant in the Derby and Preakness," Clement said. "It would be great for racing if he could win the Triple Crown. But if there's something that can help the horses that he beat catch up with him, it's the extra rest they have."
And with those words, a large group of trainers will indeed "rest" their case for a victory in the Belmont Stakes.