Matthew Berry, ESPN Senior Writer 7y

10 lists of 10: Breakout candidates, sleepers, rookies and the best team names

Fantasy NFL, Fantasy

Twitter gives you 140 characters. Snapchat gives you 10 seconds. And if my kids are any indication, you get two seconds to impress on TV before they keep flipping. We are a short-attention-span, slideshow-worshipping, list-loving society. So in honor of that, it is an annual preseason tradition.

These are 10 lists ... of 10.

List 1: 10 players who are not currently being drafted as starters in ESPN.com leagues (top 10 QB/TE or top 20 RB/WR) that I believe will finish as such

1. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (current ADP: QB12): So you're telling me that the most efficient red zone quarterback (since he entered the NFL), who added the most efficient red zone receiver (in terms of PPR points per game since 2012) and was QB7 before he got hurt last season (Weeks 1-15), isn't being considered a fantasy starter? According to Tristan H. Cockcroft's Consistency Ratings, Mariota is joined by the second-most-consistent TE over the past three seasons, and Rishard Matthews is back in the fold after breaking out (WR22) in his first season with the Titans. Did I mention that the Titans used two top-75 picks on receivers? Or that they have an elite offensive line?

2. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers (current ADP: QB17): I get there's nothing sexy or interesting about Rivers, but the guy always stays healthy and was QB14 last season throwing to no one. As I mentioned in Love/Hate this year, I am a Keenan Allen believer this year. And Rivers' career per-game numbers with Allen on the field are eye-popping. Over a 16-game stretch, you'd get 4,597 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Hunter Henry and Tyrell Williams emerged last season, plus Antonio Gates is back for another year and maybe they get something out of Mike Williams ... a lot of toys for Rivers to play with.

3. Adrian Peterson, New Orleans Saints (current ADP: RB25): Well, he was going as RB31 a few days ago, but you spend 28 straight hours on TV talking a guy up apparently it helps his ADP. I get the "he's old and an injury risk" concern, but come on. He doesn't have to be his Hall of Fame self, he just needs to stay reasonably healthy. There are 247 non-Mark Ingram touches available from last season on a team that had 17 rushing touchdowns and the fourth-most rushing scores the past three seasons. He could fall into double-digit scores.

4. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (current ADP: RB37): Martin has looked good this preseason, we have certainly seen him do it before and I expect the Bucs' offense to take a major step forward this season. Combine Martin with RB48 Jacquizz Rodgers and you have the starting RB on a good offense for a 12th and a 14th, according to ESPN ADP. I love the price and the upside.

5. Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (current ADP: RB40): I expect his ADP to continually rise, and after the second preseason game that hype will continue. But I still don't think he'll get drafted inside the top 20, and I know the Chiefs love him. Hunt is a true three-down back I've written about a lot (and I'm not alone), and he has received good reviews in pass protection from Andy Reid. He'll be involved from day one and this will be his job sooner than later.

6. Brandon Marshall, New York Giants (current ADP: WR 30): I could spit stats at you, like the fact that Marshall is the top-scoring fantasy receiver in the red zone since 2012 or that the Giants have dropped back to pass at the fourth-highest rate inside the red zone over the past two seasons. But after finishing as a top-three fantasy wideout in both his first year in Chicago and his first year with the Jets, I like Marshall's chances at a top-20 finish this season while playing with the best QB of his career.

7. Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers (current ADP: WR32): The upside is high. Like really high. Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL in deep touchdown passes last season, despite missing a pair of games, relying on 5-foot-10 Antonio Brown to stretch the field and with a trio of receivers in Markus Wheaton, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Sammie Coates combining to drop 10.4 percent of their targets (league WR average: 3.5 percent). Bryant has the physical tools to fill that role in a massive way and that's not just me saying that, we've seen it. In 2014-15, Bryant ranked fourth in air yards per target and third in yards per reception. The receiver pool is deep this season and that means that you have no excuse to not draft Bryant as a starter, as your replacement-level player will be plenty productive to offset the risk taken.

8. Eric Decker, Tennessee Titans (current ADP: WR 38): Doubling down here ... if I'm going to be right on Mariota, it will be because his connection with Decker is as good as the numbers suggest. Since 2012, Decker has been among the most consistent wideouts in the NFL and is averaging 82 catches, 1,116 yards, and 10.6 touchdowns per 16 games. That's his average ... not his ceiling. The combination of high floor and ceiling is impossible to match at this point in the draft. Sign me up.

9. Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts (current ADP: TE13): I've talked him up a ton this preseason. We got a glimpse of Doyle's upside in Weeks 1-7 last season (when he was fourth among TEs in fantasy points) and with Dwayne Allen no longer eating up the red zone looks, Doyle has tons of potential with a quarterback and offensive coordinator that both love to utilize the tight end.

10. Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons (current ADP: TE20): As Matt Ryan got even more comfortable in Kyle Shanahan's offense last season and Alex Mack helped solidify the offensive line, a funny thing happened. The Falcons started using the tight ends, as they accounted for 10 scores, twice as many as they tallied the previous two seasons combined. I'm not sure Hooper gets all of that action, but there's no more Jacob Tamme, and after a Super Bowl in which Hooper scored a touchdown, he might not get to top 10, but he will easily beat his current ADP.

List 2: Ten leftover stats from my "100 Facts" column, among my favorites to write every year

1. Jamison Crowder ranked fifth in fantasy points scored from the slot last season. Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson accounted for 47.9 percent of non-Crowder Redskins fantasy points from the slot last season and are no longer in Washington.

2. Carson Wentz threw more passes than anyone in the second half of last season. The Eagles added Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith and get Lane Johnson back on the offensive line for the full season. His current ADP is QB16.

3. Bilal Powell was fourth in running back receptions last season. And he ranked third in yards per carry AFTER first contact.

4. In his first season with Sam Bradford, Kyle Rudolph caught 14 passes in the red zone. In the past five seasons, the only TEs with more such catches in a single season are Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed and Tony Gonzalez.

5. There were only four players in the league who saw more targets than T.Y. Hilton last season.

5a. But there were 49 players who saw more looks in goal-to-go situations.

6. The Broncos graded out 27th in pass protection, 30th (which means third highest) in off-target percentage and took fewer snaps than the average team last season. Demaryius Thomas still caught 90 balls for 1,083 yards and five scores (his fifth straight season reaching all of those thresholds) on his way to a WR16 finish in PPR leagues.

7. During the past five seasons, no rookie TE has scored more PPR points than Tim Wright. Wright's 141.3 points as a rookie in 2013 would have ranked as TE15 last season. In theory, Evan Engram (TE14) and O.J. Howard (TE15) would have to produce the best season by a rookie TE since Rob Gronkowski in 2010 to make good on their ADPs.

7a. Gronkowski produced 154.6 points as a rookie in 2010. That would have ranked as TE11 last season.

8. During the past three years, the second-most-targeted Green Bay Packer is averaging 1,058 yards and 11 touchdowns per season.

9. In the past two seasons, Tyler Eifert has missed 11 games. He still leads all tight ends in that time frame with 18 TDs. His current ADP is TE8.

10. If you remove Julio Jones' 300-yard, 48-point game from Week 4 last season, he averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game (FPPG) in PPR last season in 13 games (he missed two because of injury). His 211.9 total points he scored outside of the 300-yard game would have ranked just ahead of WR22 Rishard Matthews' 211.5. If, instead of the 300-yard game, you gave Jones the 16.3 FPPG he averaged in the other 13 games, his 228.2 total points would have been just better than WR16 Demaryius Thomas (226.3). On a per-game basis, that 16.3 average would have ranked just ahead of WR9 Doug Baldwin's 15.85.

List 3: Ten rookies I would take, in order, in dynasty leagues

1. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
2. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
4. Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
5. Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
6. Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
7. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
8. O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. John Ross, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
10. Zay Jones, WR, Buffalo Bills

List 4: The 10 best fantasy team names (that I can print!) I've heard this year. These are all from the amazing community on my Fantasy Life app.

1. Turn and Coughlin (jmgjr2017)
2. Here Today, Gone Aguayo (soyeljefe)
3. Fournetteflix and Chill (johnny_quid)
4. Krispy Kareem Donuts (txchief)
5. Mild Concussions (koreanry with an 06010 podcast joke)
6. Fournette About It (dembones)
7. Fake Drews (jrod1253)
8. The Dakstreet Boys (jedy)
9. Amazing Gase (lionsalldayipa)
10. Keenan and Mel (jjones6)

List 5: Ten running backs going in the 10th round or later who have sneaky PPR value and can be used as an RB2 or flex, depending on league size

NOTE: All references to rounds below are for 10-team leagues.

1. Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions: Obvious, but going in Round 10 (90th overall).

2. Duke Johnson Jr., Cleveland Browns: ADP will rise, but still a lot to like at 111th overall (12th round).

3. James White, New England Patriots: Super Bowl hero was top three in RB receptions, targets and receiving yards. Going in Round 12 due to "Patriots RB fears."

4. C.J. Prosise, Seattle Seahawks: Needs to stay on the field, but there's no question about the talent or how Seattle wants to use him. Going in Round 14.

5. Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins: A crucial part of Washington's passing offense. He finished strong last season, averaging more than 11 points a game in his final four. Going in Round 15.

6. Shane Vereen, New York Giants: Forgotten after last year's injury-plagued season. He has a specific role on a pass-first offense and a reasonable path to significant playing time. Going undrafted.

7. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: Already penciled in as Drew Brees' third-down back. He's a true three-down talent behind two veterans who have struggled with health in their careers.

8. T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars: It's unlikely the Jags will have Leonard Fournette play on third downs initially, so Yeldon, who has caught 78.9 percent of his targets from Blake Bortles during his career (all other Jags have caught just 58.7 percent of his passes in that stretch), is the third-down beneficiary and basically free on draft day.

9. Kyle Juszczyk, San Francisco 49ers: Juszczyk is a good pass-catcher, and he became the NFL's highest-paid fullback this offseason. After catching at least 37 balls in two straight seasons, he has been working out at tight end some and will absolutely have value this in deeper PPR leagues.

10. Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears: As mentioned by Chris Mortensen on "The Fantasy Show" earlier this week, the Bears like what they have in Cohen and he should see 8 to 12 touches a game in relief of Jordan Howard.

List 6: Ten surprisingly consistent (or not) players, based on Tristan H. Cockcroft's consistency ratings

1. During the past three seasons, the Colts' Andrew Luck has been starter-worthy 52.1 percent of the time, the third-highest rate among quarterbacks. In that stretch, he has produced seven "stud" (top-two QB in a given week) performances and just four "stiffs" (outside the top 20 in a particular week) -- far and away the best rate in the NFL. Because of injury concerns, he's going in the ninth round.

2. Todd Gurley didn't have a single "stiff" (outside the top 50 running backs) performance last season, something that might not seem like a major accomplishment, but DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy and Devonta Freeman were all credited with one last season. The Gurley is tied with McCoy for most games with 16-plus carries since he assumed the lead role in the Rams' backfield (Week 4 of 2015), and that volume gives him a nice floor, especially in a revamped offense under new coach Sean McVay.

3. Tennessee's DeMarco Murray has quietly graded out as the most consistent running back not named Ezekiel Elliott over the past three years, and that says something given that he has been performing at such a high level (30.2 more PPR points and 58.2 more non-PPR points than any other running back in that span). That might be surprising considering he's played for three teams in that time frame, but he leads RBs in both top-fives (14) and top-25s (37) over that stretch.

4. Murray's new Titans teammate, Eric Decker, has proved himself to be nothing short of an elite red zone option. Since 2014, Decker has more top-25 finishes and fewer finishes outside of the top 50 than fellow receiver A.J. Green despite, shall we say, inconsistent quarterback play. Now this red zone monster finds himself with the most efficient red zone QB since 2015.

5. Despite missing 10 games and being banged up for other games, Rob Gronkowski has 13 top-two tight end finishes during the past three seasons. No other TE has more than seven. It might require patience during the week, but the advantage he gives you when active over the rest of the position is unlike anything else in fantasy football.

6. Russell Wilson had four "stiff" performances (outside top 20 QBs) in 2014 and 2015 combined, but last season, he recorded a league-high seven! The Seahawks signal-caller had just five touchdown passes at the end of October, proceeded to throw five touchdowns during the next two weeks, followed that up with a four-game stretch that saw him fire three TDs and eight interceptions and promptly finished the season winning you your league (if you got there) with eight TD passes and one interception over the final three weeks. Quite a ride!

7. Mark Ingram was not worth a spot in your starting lineup nine different times last season, and he had a pair of weeks in which he lost you your matchup with a finish outside the top 50 RBs. The downward-trending carry count is a bad sign for consistent production and with Adrian Peterson and Alvin Kamara joining the Saints' backfield, it is hard to consider Ingram a "safe" option, as some like to proclaim.

8. Despite playing for one of the most consistent offenses in football and posting consistent annual numbers, new Patriots receiver Brandin Cooks is a tough one to get a handle on weekly. Last season, Kenny Stills actually had more top-25 WR finishes than Cooks, but Cooks also had as many top-five finishes as Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas and Terrelle Pryor Sr. put together. Boom or bust last season, does the consistency pick up now that he is part of a juggernaut offense that is capable of featuring a different player each week, or will it suffer even more?

9. In addition to questionable health, receiver Sammy Watkins has posted more weekly finishes outside of the top 50 (17) than he has inside of the top 25 over the past three seasons (15) and recently joined a team in the Rams headed by a second-year quarterback in Jared Goff, whose skill set doesn't seem to match Watkins' strengths.

10. The Raiders' Amari Cooper had seven games last season in which he finished as a top-25 fantasy wide receiver but also had five games in which he finished outside the top 50.

List 7: More team names suggested to me, this time by my followers on Twitter

1. Pour one out for Mahomes (@big_jphil)
2. Dez-pacito (@jonserventi)
3. Cobbfefe (@chris_schieffer)
4. Trust the Prosise (@RojoJawnson)
5. Remember the Tight Ends (@at_trevorjames)
6. Hit me with your Prescott (@diamndawg)
7. Golladay Inn Express (@thebismofunyun)
8. Abdullah Oblongata (@TonyG804)
9. Cooterific (@evan_rens)
10. Odell, Motel, Golladay Ginn (@deanis19)

List 8: Ten boring, old guys who won't elicit "oohs" when you draft them but who will be very solid and outperform their current ADP

1. Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (current ADP: QB18): He enters 2017 having posted four consecutive seasons with at least 4,200 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns and should have a healthy Keenan Allen at receiver to help bolster those numbers.

2. Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals (current ADP: QB19): Can you list for me all of the quarterbacks over the past two seasons with more passing yards and more passing touchdowns than Palmer? Drew Brees and the aforementioned Rivers. That's it and that's all. With RB David Johnson wanting to catch 100 balls and Larry Fitzgerald (keep reading) continuing to do Larry Fitzgerald things at receiver, a now-healthy Palmer should finish closer to 2015's top five than last year's QB19 disaster.

3. Danny Woodhead, RB, Baltimore Ravens (current ADP: RB19, sixth round): A hamstring injury should continue to lower his ADP and, yes, while there is certainly health risk, the 32-year-old enters a Ravens offense that not only lost its projected starting running back but one that also counted on its backfield for 26.9 percent of completions last season. Woodhead has a pair of 75-plus catch seasons on his résumé, and it wouldn't be shocking if he added a third in what appears to be a perfect match.

4. Adrian Peterson, RB, New Orleans Saints (current ADP: RB25): With more than 200 non-Mark Ingram touches from last season available, the team that had 17 rushing touchdowns last season and Drew Brees as its quarterback should allow Peterson to run without seeing a bunch of eight-man fronts, as he has his entire career.

5. Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets (current ADP: RB40): With not much else on the Jets roster, expect Forte to touch the ball a lot. As much as Bilal Powell? No, but the guy has never been worse than RB21 in fantasy, and now he's going as RB40 in the 12th round! He's not dead; he's just a Jet, which isn't the same thing, I promise. I did research.

6. Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Giants (current ADP: WR32): Assuming his injury is nothing serious -- podcast fans know you can't teach 6-foot-5 -- the fact that the Giants rely on a pair of sub-6-foot receivers means Marshall should be called on often in both field-stretching situations and when in the red zone (where he happens to be the top-producing fantasy WR since 2012). The G-men love to spread out defenses with their three-receiver sets; good luck in man coverage against Marshall. Big bounce-back year coming for the veteran wideout.

7. Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers (current ADP: WR33): I've written and spoken about him a lot, but after some early buzz, the interest seems to have cooled on the 31-year-old Garcon. I'm still a believer. He got the big deal because of two coaches fighting over him in the offseason: Former Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and another former Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay. Garcon went with Shanahan, who gave him in excess of 180 targets in 2013 and will now force-feed him the ball once again in an offense that will need to throw a lot.

8. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals (current ADP: WR19): The date was Jan. 3, 2015. The Cardinals had just lost a playoff game to the Panthers with QB Ryan Lindley racking up all of 82 passing yards, and Fitzgerald was able to pull down just three of eight targets. After 11 great years, was his career over? He missed a pair of games and scored only two touchdowns that regular season -- the writing was on the wall. Well, all he has done since is rattle off the two highest catch totals of his career, ranking him behind only Antonio Brown and Julio Jones in receptions during that stretch. With some of the best hands in the NFL and a veteran QB at the helm, Fitz is an unsexy but proven PPR threat going in the fifth or sixth round.

9. Mike Wallace, WR, Baltimore Ravens (current ADP: WR42): There are times when you think to yourself: No one is listening. I've been banging the table for the 31-year-old Wallace since May and yet his ADP continues to hover in the 40s (11th round). He has been a top-30 fantasy wideout in seven of his eight seasons in the NFL (including last season in Baltimore), and had the most targets last season of anyone still left on the team. More than 300 targets from last season are available, and just how many do you think Jeremy Maclin actually gets? If Joe Flacco is going to miss regular-season games, OK, I get it, but Wallace has a shot at 150 targets in his second year on the team that threw the ball the most the past two seasons. I like his chances to improve a little on last year's four touchdowns.

10. Ted Ginn Jr., WR, New Orleans Saints (current ADP: WR55): Did you know Ginn is 32? Neither did I, but while podcast fans know Ginn by another name, the fact is this list is about older players who could help win you your league -- not a list of actually good football players. So, while there is a list of stuff Ginn does not do well, he is still legitimately fast. And now he goes to a QB who ranks first in completions, fourth in completion percentage and fourth in touchdowns on deep passes (15-plus air yards) over the past three seasons. In that span, the majority of Ginn's receiving touchdowns (eight out of 14) have come on such passes. He will absolutely beat that ADP, and I love him in "best ball" leagues this year.

List 9: Ten games (plus seven more) that allow you to get a top-five fantasy QB out of picks in Rounds 11 and 12

OK, so you know Ben Roethlisberger (health, road splits) and Matthew Stafford (pace of play, outdoor splits) both made my "hate" list, but since that list has come out, both have seen their ADPs drop. Love/Hate is always about ADP, so if I were writing the list today, neither guy would be on it based on the current ADP. Stafford averages 19.89 points in his past 16 indoor games. Roethlisberger averages 23.96 points in his past 16 home games. So, if you blew off QB early and then drafted both of them in Rounds 11 and 12, you could do something like this with your lineup this season:

1. Week 1: Stafford vs. Arizona
2. Week 2: Roethlisberger vs. Minnesota
3. Week 3: Stafford vs. Atlanta
4. Week 4: Stafford at Minnesota (tough matchup but still indoors)
5. Week 5: Roethlisberger vs. Jacksonville
6. Week 6: Stafford at New Orleans
7. Week 7: Roethlisberger vs. Cincinnati
8. Week 8: Stafford vs. Pittsburgh
9. Week 9: Stafford at Green Bay (he's averaging 19.56 points in his past four games at Lambeau Field)
10. Week 10: Stafford vs. Cleveland
11. Week 11: Roethlisberger vs. Tennessee
12. Week 12: Roethlisberger vs. Green Bay
13. Week 13: Joe Flacco vs. Detroit. (OK, so we have to veer off here. At this point, Stafford doesn't work, so you can either trade him or cut him for Flacco, who should be available, averages 39 percent more points at home, and the Lions defense was third worst against quarterbacks last season. I expect them to be a plus matchup again this year.)
14. Week 14: Roethlisberger vs. Baltimore
15. Week 15: Roethlisberger vs. New England
16. Week 16: Flacco vs. Indianapolis
17. Week 17: Roethlisberger vs. Cleveland

If you add up the per-game averages for Stafford in a dome the past 16 games, Stafford at Green Bay the past four years, Roethlisberger at home the past 16 games and Flacco's 17.43 points per game at home the past five years and divide by 17, you get a QB that should average 21.55 points a game. Last year, Tom Brady was QB3 averaging 21.55 points a game. Loosey-goosey math, and these are all just based on averages, but still -- interesting, no?

List 10: Ten final team names

1. I'm just here so I don't get last place (@fsilva_bvoy)
2. Good Kamara (@JamesMKE)
3. Hooked on a Thielen (@sstauff24)
4. I Gotta Thielen (@kjwetherille)
5. 13 Reasons Ajayi (@JoelInOne)
6. House Tyrell (@Tyler_J_Worden)
7. Bye-week Curious (@Pelley9)
8. 99 problems but a Mitch ain't one (multiple)
9. Watch me Zay Zay (@az_cat_chris)
10. Yo Mahomes Smell Ya Later (@kcford76)

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