Anyone who claims that the NBA preseason is meaningless clearly doesn't have much of a history with fantasy basketball. Those of us who play know better. Much better.
As you know, a lot can change, and fast, when you consider the enormous impact of one big preseason injury. That can alter the fantasy hoops landscape -- it's no wonder the Top 200 rankings have to be adjusted so often!
This October, we saw several instances of this.
We saw it with Anthony Davis' sprained ankle; the power forward has been dropped from No. 9 to 11 as a result. Given the renewed concern of another injury-plagued season, he is a first-round talent who is dropping into the second round in many fantasy leagues.
Gordon Hayward, Reggie Jackson and Ben Simmons are the three others who drop considerably due to injury. Hayward's broken finger is expected to keep him out of Utah's lineup until the end of November, causing him to fall to No. 46. Jackson's left knee tendinitis is likely to keep him out for five to seven weeks, causing him to drop from No. 50 all the way to 82 while also elevating Detroit's fill-in starting point guard Ish Smith from No. 175 to 123.
And then there's Simmons, whose broken foot will likely keep him out of action until sometime in early 2017, thus ending his rookie of the year chances and dropping him all the way to No. 138. Simmons still makes sense at a higher part of the draft in dynasty leagues, but he's missing too much of the season to be chosen above that 130-140 range in redraft leagues.
Here are the other big storylines since our last rankings update:
Harden leapfrogs Westbrook for No. 1
James Harden and Russell Westbrook are in a class by themselves as the top two fantasy options this season, but until now, we've always had Westbrook ahead of Harden. Not anymore. I explained recently the reasons why Harden now makes sense over Westbrook in category leagues that include 3-pointers, but it can be summed up with this:
1. Harden is now eligible at two positions -- shooting guard and point guard -- while Westbrook is still only a point guard. The versatility that multi-position eligibility creates on draft day is a huge advantage for anyone who selects Harden over Westbrook.
2. Westbrook's biggest edge over Harden last season was assists (2.9 more per game), but there's a good chance that gap closes now since Harden has more point guard responsibilities and Westbrook is without super-efficient future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant on the receiving end of his passes.
3. Harden is a much greater presence from beyond the 3-point arc, and that advantage may grow in the fast-paced offense of new Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni.
Paul falls, Freak peaks
Chris Paul drops from No. 6 to 8, falling behind Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James. We've listed the Los Angeles Clippers star point guard at No. 6 throughout the past two months, but he has continually been passed over for the likes of Leonard and James -- and often times Davis and DeMarcus Cousins -- so it was evident a slight adjustment was in order.
Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo rises to his highest spot ever in the ESPN rankings, jumping past Davis to No. 10. While the Greek Freak's ceiling may be slightly lower than Davis if both log close to 82 games, there's no denying that Antetokounmpo is a more durable option who is the safer of the two options. Remember, Davis has yet to play more than 68 games in a season as he enters his fifth year in the NBA.
Embiid's rise
Only a couple of weeks ago, the general consensus was that Joel Embiid would need some time to ease his way into the rigors of the NBA following back-to-back missed seasons due to foot injuries. While that still may prove to be true, Embiid has wasted no time making his presence felt in the preseason, showing rare skills for a big man who is actually bigger than Detroit's Andre Drummond. Embiid has moves down low, and his stroke looks great from beyond the 3-point arc. When you factor in his size (7 feet, 250 pounds) and athleticism, it's easy to see why the 76ers thought enough of the relatively unproven talent to select him No. 3 overall in 2014. He moves up 31 spots from No. 130 to 99 on the updated rankings, and if Embiid can stay healthy, he has a chance to be one of the best bargains of the draft for anyone who takes him in this range.
Other big movers:
Kris Dunn, Minnesota Timberwolves (132 to 105)
Eric Gordon, Houston Rockets (123 to 97)
Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets (147 to 87)
Dario Saric, Philadelphia 76ers (131 to 118)
Ish Smith, Detroit Pistons (175 to 123)
Return of Exum
After missing all of the 2015-16 season, Utah's Dante Exum is fully recovered from ACL surgery on his left knee and highlights the list of newcomers to the Top 200. Any concerns of lingering effects from the lost season have been squashed during the preseason; Exum has looked like a totally different player than the wide-eyed rookie of two seasons ago. His scoring and passing have been on display throughout the preseason, propelling him to No. 157 in the rankings. In 2016-17, he looks to be one of the main guards in the Jazz rotation, along with George Hill, Alec Burks and Rodney Hood. Remember, we're talking about a player who is still only 21 and two years removed from being the No. 5 overall pick in the 2014 NBA draft.
Other new additions:
Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets (146)
Trevor Booker, Brooklyn Nets (153)
Nemanja Bjelica, Minnesota Timberwolves (161)
Solomon Hill, New Orleans Pelicans (167)
Dwight Powell, Dallas Mavericks (168)
Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns (172)
Kelly Oubre, Washington Wizards (180)
T.J. Warren, Phoenix Suns (194)