Dion Lewis' injury setback isn't only frustrating news for his fantasy owners in leagues that drafted early; it's also aggravating in that it takes the New England Patriots' backfield a step backwards in terms of role certainty from week to week.
Lewis, only nine months and four days removed from surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee, will undergo a second surgery on the knee, a "cleanup" procedure that will apparently afford him a chance to return before the 2016 season concludes.
In all likelihood, Lewis will land on the reserve/PUP list, which requires a minimum six games' absence. The Boston Herald, meanwhile, reports that Lewis will miss 8-10 weeks, which would put his timetable for recovery at around Weeks 7-9. As the Patriots have a Week 9 bye, it's likely that Lewis won't be a consideration until the Week 10 game against the Seattle Seahawks, giving him a chance at an eight-game season, but then the difficulty in a typical player's recovery from an ACL tear needs to be considered. In standard leagues, it's impossible to formulate a case to draft Lewis, especially not with bench spots precious during the Weeks 3-11 bye period.
In Lewis' absence, the fallout might seem somewhat obvious: LeGarrette Blount, who at times during the offseason was hinted to not even be guaranteed a roster spot, now appears to be the team's primary back on first and second downs; James White, who caught 40 passes in 10 games (playoffs included) after Lewis' Week 9 injury last season and was the subject of much buzz during the 2014 preseason, now steps up as the team's passing-down back.
The problem, however, is that each player presents inherent flaws, and for those drafting in close proximity to such value-changing news, the danger is in overreacting. Blount, for example, is a mere 9-for-20 in converting goal-line runs (within 1 yard of the goal line) during his career, his 45 percent conversion rate well beneath the 54 percent league average during that time span. And he scored a whopping (and league-leading) 40 of his 110 fantasy points with the Patriots up by at least two touchdowns on the scoreboard in 2015, giving him more of a look of "finisher" than workhorse.
White, meanwhile, is an inferior talent to Lewis who had a largely up-and-down performance after stepping into that role in 2015.
That's why, while both Blount and White moved up my rankings following the Lewis news, the name that might warrant the closest attention these next two weeks is Tyler Gaffney, who in two preseason games has 20 carries for 95 and one touchdown. Gaffney, like White, possesses more limited skill than the men ahead of him on the depth chart, but without a clear-cut leading man on the roster, he's certainly capable of carving out a respectable role. After all, it was only two seasons ago that the Patriots gave five different running backs starts, had four different running backs post a 15-point fantasy game and failed to have a single back exceed 101 fantasy points for the season.
With the news, Blount is now my No. 33 running back, tops among Patriots backs but still 12 spots behind where I initially had Lewis (21st). White, meanwhile, has moved up to 48th, though he'd earn a ranking closer to Blount's in PPR formats.