The kids are here. OK, more kids are here.
It has been a summer of fairly consistent debuts among prospects, and the past week added three more names to the fantasy-relevant pile: New York Yankees sluggers Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin, and Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson.
Though the Yankees will certainly grant healthy amounts of playing time to both -- as well as soon-to-qualify-at-catcher catcher Gary Sanchez -- Judge is the guy to get, if only because of his massive power potential and the ballpark in which to exploit it. He hit home runs in each of his first two big-league games, becoming the first player to do that since Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story did it to begin this season, and during that time generated a healthy .214 well-hit average (the league's average for non-pitchers is .155), an average exit velocity only slightly behind that of the league's leaders and an average fly-ball distance of 306.2 feet (more than 25 feet greater than the league's average of 288).
Still, for all of Judge's big power, he should also have a big strikeout rate, after posting a 23.9 percent number in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre this season and 24.7 percent during his minor league career. Chances are, he might be a somewhat streaky performer initially, as pitchers adapt to him and vice versa, but it's not unreasonable to project another six to eight home runs from him this season.
Judge debuts 173rd in my going-forward rankings this week, and 52nd among outfielders, but in a best-case scenario he might post numbers like those of Oakland Athletics outfielder Khris Davis, a similar three-true-outcomes type (historically speaking, as this season he has rarely walked) ranked 99th overall and 27th among outfielders. In Rotisserie leagues, categories are all that matter at this stage, so owners fortunate enough to have landed Judge via FAAB/free agency can feel free to aim for Davis' more optimistic valuation.
Austin, meanwhile, fell short of a top-250 overall ranking and is 71st among outfielders, with a primary obstacle to his success the presence of Mark Teixeira on the Yankees' roster. Austin has earned three of five starts at first base ahead of Teixeira, and his skill set might make him a safer bet for numbers like a .260 average and five home runs the rest of the year, but unless he can somehow sneak his way into a clear majority of the Yankees' final 42 games, it's going to be difficult for him to contribute to mixed-league teams.
The Braves' decision to promote Swanson might've taken some owners by surprise, but I think it's nothing more than the team finally trading Erick Aybar to pave the way for everyday at-bats for the 2015 No. 1 overall pick and primary return from the Shelby Miller trade. Swanson's professional stat sample is extremely limited -- .277/.367/.435 with 10 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 127 games, only 84 of those in Double-A ball -- and it's possible he'll face a lengthier adjustment than a typical prospect. Still, he's capable enough in terms of power and speed to be an upgrade from Aybar for both the Braves and fantasy owners in a below-average scenario, and the best case could have him performing like a top-15 fantasy shortstop.
Swanson enters the rankings as my No. 26 shortstop.
Here are some quick thoughts about the week's big movers in the ranks:
Judging by his first 13 games' numbers since his return from a fractured bone in his elbow -- and bear in mind that he played every inning of the most recent 12 -- Detroit Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez isn't showing any signs of being limited as he recovers from injury. He's batting .400 with four home runs during that time, but a better indicator is a comparison of his pre- and post-DL performance:
Pre-DL (65 G): .234 ISO, .196 WHAV, 34.4 FB%, 24.2 LD%, 323.2 average FB
Post-DL (13 G): .340 ISO, .260 WHAV, 38.5 FB%, 23.1 LD%, 318.2 average FB
Billy Hamilton continues to soar up the rankings thanks to his torrid stolen-base pace, now 29 in 28 games (to go along with a .321 batting average) since the All-Star break. He's the impossible name to rank -- and that'll only continue as the season winds down and the level of trade demand for him rises as teams seek to address categorical needs -- but the case can be made that he's got top-25-overall value going forward. Be extremely careful about pricing him on the trade market as his owner; he can have a substantial impact in a Rotisserie race with the way he has been performing.
Anyone else happen to notice that the Boston Red Sox's remaining schedule -- especially after this coming weekend -- is somewhat light as far as their pitching potential is concerned? This is part of the reason for Rick Porcello's jump in the rankings, as here's what he and his team has left: @BAL-1, @DET-4, @TB-4, KC-3, TB-3, @OAK-3, @SD-3, @TOR-3, BAL-3, NYY-4, @BAL-4, @TB-3, @NYY-3, TOR-3. There are a few doozies in there, but it's still quite a bit softer than what we've come to expect from an American League East team's late-season schedule in recent years.
Jose Ramirez has always been a cheap source of stolen bases, something AL-only owners have been more apt to exploit, but during the past two months he has established himself as a bona fide fantasy star. Since June 15, the last time he sat even one inning (he sat out that day's game), Ramirez is a .329/.372/.483 hitter with five home runs, 29 RBIs and 13 stolen bases in 52 games, which projects to 16, 90 and 41 in those counting-number categories in a 162-game schedule. What's more, he's now the Cleveland Indians' everyday third baseman, so even with some regression to his .354 BABIP, he'll have little trouble contending for -- even if falling slightly short of -- a top-10 finish at all three of his eligible infield positions (second, third and shortstop).
Brandon Moss has started each of the St. Louis Cardinals' past six games against a left-handed pitcher, an indication of how locked-in he is to an everyday role, especially with Matt Holliday injured. Moss' sizable jump in the rankings isn't merely his return to full health; it's the team's prioritizing him as a regular part of their lineup.
New ESPN position eligibility
The following players added new position eligibility within the past two weeks. As a reminder, position players need to appear 10 times at a new position to gain in-season eligibility, while pitchers need to make three starts to earn starting-pitching eligibility or five relief appearances to earn relief-pitching eligibility.
Derek Dietrich (1B), Marwin Gonzalez (2B), Michael Martinez (2B), Max Muncy (2B), Jake Peavy (RP), Jurickson Profar (OF), Andrew Triggs (SP), Jacob Turner (RP), Danny Valencia (1B), Jonathan Villar (3B), Tyler Wilson (RP).
The following players are within two games of earning new eligibility, with their total games played noted at the listed position.
Cristhian Adames (2B, 9 games), Christian Bethancourt (OF, 8 games), Emilio Bonifacio (OF, 8 games), Daniel Castro (3B, 9 games), Christian Colon (3B, 8 games), Chase d'Arnaud (2B, 9 games), Ivan De Jesus (3B, 8 games), Stephen Drew (3B, 9 games; SS, 9 games), Marwin Gonzalez (OF, 8 games), Marco Hernandez (3B, 9 games; 2B, 8 games), Paul Janish (3B, 9 games), Howie Kendrick (1B, 8 games), Michael Martinez (2B, 8 games), Shawn O'Malley (2B, 8 games), Gregorio Petit (3B, 9 games), Jorge Polanco (3B, 9 games), Jurickson Profar (SS, 8 games), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (1B, 8 games), Ronald Torreyes (SS, 9 games).
Going-forward rankings: Week 19
Listed below are my updated, going-forward rankings. These are based upon an ESPN standard league of 10 teams and Rotisserie 5x5 scoring. Click here to see these rankings sorted by position.