After breaking down film, Scouts Inc. runs down what to pay attention to during the Tennessee-Detroit matchup, Seattle-Dallas matchup and Arizona-Philadelphia matchup on Thanksgiving.
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions
• Lions QB Daunte Culpepper is an easy target in the pocket with limited mobility and if he goes to deeper routes or seven-step drops the Titans will dominate the Lions' weaker offensive line, but if the Lions get the ball out quickly in those short drops they can move the ball with passes that are almost like runs.
• The Titans face the Lions' No. 32 ranked run defense, which should lead to a big day for RB Chris Johnson with his slashing style and cuts to the outside. Plus, if the Titans establish the run early, it will force the Lions to play closer to the line of scrimmage and QB Kerry Collins will get all the one-on-one matchups he wants -- especially off play-action.
• The Lions do not blitz often, but it is unlikely that they can get to Collins with just their front four. Tennessee's offensive line has only given up six sacks all season, while FB Ahmard Hall and Johnson excellent in blitz pickup. Plus, Detroit gives up more big passing plays than any other defense in the NFL and it has a pathetic league-low two interceptions. This means Detroit has a dilemma. Do the Lions come after Collins with the blitz to create pressure and leave their defensive backs on an island, or do they sit back in max-cover schemes and keep the passing game in front of them?
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys
• The Cowboys' pass-protection is still shoddy, the blitz pickup is inconsistent but QB Tony Romo has the uncanny ability to feel pressure and move around the pocket to avoid it. Seattle has only one solid cover corner, Marcus Trufant, and there is no way that the Seahawks can hold their coverages versus the Cowboys' multi-receiver sets when Romo extends the play with his feet.
• The Seahawks' offense only completed five passes to wide receivers last week and that must change versus the Cowboys because they will likely need a lot of points. However, this will not be easy because Seattle has the No. 31 rated pass offense and it has virtually no vertical or big-play element. Dallas should be able to shutdown Seattle's passing attack by using some physical press techniques and even when Seattle goes to a nickel offense with WR Bobby Engram in the slot, the Cowboys can play high-low and take him out of the game.
• The Cowboys' offense is explosive, but for some reason they have been terrible in the first quarter. During their last six games they have been out scored 61-7 in the first quarter and they routinely give up touchdowns on their opponents first offensive drive. The play calling has been conservative early in the game and they do not seem to catch a defense off guard coming out of the gate. Seattle is an inferior team and the last thing that the Cowboys need to do is keep the Seahawks in the game. Dallas must dictate the tempo from the start, establish its superiority early and send a message to future opponents.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
• It's obvious Philadelphia has very little confidence in its run game and the Eagles abandon it so early, that defenses barely have to game plan for it. They are particularly terrible at running in short-yardage situations. That allows defenses to sit back in coverages with tight zones that QB Donovan McNabb cannot exploit right now. Arizona's offense is explosive and the Eagles must keep them off the field by eating up some clock, which means they should run the ball 20-25 times.
• The Cardinals think their running game is evolving, but they still realize they are primarily a pass-oriented offense. They know who they are and they play to their strengths, probably better than any other team in the NFL. They will spread the field with four-receiver sets and utilize a lot of underneath throws designed to let their physical receivers get yards after the catch. Then the Cardinals can run the ball versus soft sub packages with some draw plays and they are also effective on screen passes. This is a tough offense to stop and it will wear down the Eagles' pass defense.
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The Eagles will blitz from everywhere and they love to confuse offensive lines. When Arizona is in its spread formations, the Cardinals don't have enough blockers to match up versus the blitz, but QB Kurt Warner is great versus pressure. He will wait until the last second to get the ball out, but it still comes out quickly and he loves those matchups off the blitz with man coverage behind it. Philadelphia leads the league in sacks and it will be interesting to see how Warner handles the pressure.
• As good a year as Warner is having, he is a pocket quarterback prone to hits and he has already fumbled nine times and lost six of those. However, McNabb is also struggling with eight turnovers (six interceptions and two fumbles) during the past three games and he really seems to be pressing. Whichever quarterback protects the ball best and doesn't give up field position will likely win.
Gary Horton, a pro scout for Scouts Inc., has been a football talent evaluator for more than 30 years. He spent 10 years in the NFL and 10 years at the college level before launching a private scouting firm, The War Room.