I really wish I could offer some contrarian viewpoint about kickers in fantasy football. I wish I could say, "I know everyone tells you from year to year that kicker performance is random, but I've found a statistical trend that debunks that myth." I wish I could find some good reason not to wait until your draft's final round to select your kicker. But I can't. So I won't.
A rookie kicker (Mason Crosby) led the fantasy world last year. Another rookie kicker (Nick Folk) was fourth. The consensus preseason No. 1 kicker (Adam Vinatieri) finished in a tie for 10th. The guy who surprisingly led the fantasy world in 2006 (Robbie Gould) finished seventh. Plus, over the entire '07 season, the difference between the 10th fantasy kicker (a three-way tie between Vinatieri, Matt Bryant and Nate Kaeding) and the 20th fantasy kicker (David Akers) was 10 points. Hey, kickers play a big (and kind of annoying) role in determining fantasy outcomes. But predicting who'll be ranked where by season's end is essentially impossible.
That's not to say you shouldn't keep up with the latest news, track the guys who figure to play for high-powered offenses and search for what few trends are available in the arena of fantasy kicking. But you shouldn't stress over which guy in the top half of our rankings you wind up with. And you really, really shouldn't think about drafting a kicker until the bitter end.
The elite
Insofar as it's possible to predict such things in June, the Cowboys' offense appears to have one of the league's best combinations of explosiveness and dunderheadedness. That's good news for Nick Folk, because it likely means a whole bunch of field goal attempts. Folk didn't miss a kick from inside the 50-yard line last year (he was 14-for-14), and while he was only 2-for-5 from long distance, he figures to get lots of work again in '08. The only kicker who has finished with 115 points or more each of the past three seasons is Shayne Graham, which practically makes him his position's Lou Gehrig. The Bengals have some pretty serious questions on offense, and it wouldn't be a shock to see the team curl up into a ball and get coach Marvin Lewis fired. But Graham figures to remain steady. Nate Kaeding perennially finds himself in a great position for fantasy kickers. He plays in warm weather, he has a high-powered offense propping him up and the Chargers' defense is one of the league's best. Kaeding isn't the most clutch kicker, but he's accurate and tough (he played last season's final five games with a fractured leg). By rights, Stephen Gostkowski deserves consideration as the top kicker in fantasy simply because the Patriots were such a ridiculous offensive machine in '07. Of course, even in that record-breaking year, Gostkowski finished second at his position in fantasy scoring, and it's likely that defenses will be able to slow New England down a little more effectively in '08. Then again, if that happens, maybe a few more touchdowns will become field goals. He's a safe bet to score plenty.
Falling down
Adam Vinatieri didn't cover himself in glory in '08. He attempted only three kicks of 40 yards or longer and missed all three, plus cost his team a win during a rain-soaked game in San Diego. The Colts still should have a high-octane offense, but Vinatieri's accuracy is waning. In the Mike Martz years, Jason Hanson enjoyed a resurgence, but in the season before Martz came to Detroit, Hanson scored only 84 points. He is accurate and always has had a booming leg, but as the Lions' offense slows to a more conservative run/pass mix, Hanson won't merit starting. Jason Elam's big competitive advantage these past several seasons has been the thin air in Denver, which helped him become one of the league's best bets to convert on long-distance kicks. This winter, though, Elam moved to Atlanta, and while he'll be kicking mostly indoors, he'll also be kicking for what figures to be one of the league's most anemic offenses. It's tough to project consistency for him in '08. David Akers still is a famous name among fantasy kickers, but he has been borderline awful for a few seasons. He hasn't made more than 78.3 percent of his kicks in any of the past three seasons, and he was just 2-for-10 from 40 yards and beyond in '07. Don't be fooled by his name.
Rookie crop
In Seattle, Brandon Coutu has a better-than-even chance to replace Josh Brown, who has moved on to the dome in St. Louis. Coutu flashed a huge leg at the University of Georgia (24-for-35 from 40 yards and beyond in his collegiate career, including a 58-yarder) and has to beat out only Olindo Mare to win the job. Stay tuned.
Martin Gramatica took over for Mare in New Orleans at the end of '07, but he got a scare when the Saints selected Taylor Mehlhaff this April. Gramatica won the job, but there's a place for Mehlhaff in the NFL. He
performed well from longer distances at the University of Wisconsin, and he should be given a chance by some team.
Connor Barth, who holds all the kicking records at North Carolina, failed in his bid to win the Chiefs' job. Nick Novak, beat him out, but Barth might get an opportunity elsewhere.
Unsettled situations
The Coutu/Mare and Mehlhaff/Gramatica situations had the most scrutiny, but with Jason Elam gone, you have to ask yourself: Will the Broncos simply hand their kicking job over to Matt Prater? After all, Prater lost the kicking job with the Falcons a little quickly in '07 and never really got to show what he can do. You have to figure Denver will bring in a veteran to compete with him in camp, though. Jay Feely made the best of an awful situation in Miami last year, missing only two kicks all season. It asn't enough for him to keep the Dolphins' kicking job heading into this season; the team released Feely and go with undrafted rookie Dan Carpenter.
Sleepers
Josh Scobee missed eight games in '07 because of a bad quad, and he got only 12 attempts (he made 11) in seven games after his return. But the Jags' offense figures to be as conservative as ever this fall, which can be a recipe for good kicker value. How bad will the Ravens' offense be in '08? Just bad enough to get Matt Stover into field goal range often, or super bad? If you believe the first answer, you should consider Stover a fantasy starter because he'll get plenty of attempts and his accuracy is never an issue. If the Texans take the quantum leap many are predicting in '08, Kris Brown could vault to the front of the class. He had a terrific '07 season and even made three boots of 50-plus yards in a single game. Of course, he also has struggled with accuracy in the past. John Kasay could be a primary beneficiary of Jake Delhomme's return in Carolina. There's no questioning Kasay's big, accurate leg, but a couple of consecutive years of stagnant Panthers offense has led to him scoring just 100 and 99 points, respectively, the past two seasons. If Carolina gets it in gear again, Kasay might, too.
Draft strategy
Simply put, there's no reason to take a kicker early. If your draft features a run on kickers before the last couple of rounds, chuckle to yourself, take another flyer on a possible surprise running back or wide receiver, and wait. There never will be very much difference between the top kicker and the 12th kicker, plus, it's well nigh impossible to predict which guys will occupy those spots. If you have an itchy trigger finger, take your kicker in the second-to-last round instead of the last one. That's as adventurous as you should get, though. And never take a second kicker. Ever. You always can pluck one off the free-agent wire when you need one.
Auction strategy
It doesn't matter when in your auction you take your kicker. Just make sure you don't pay more than $1 for him. If somebody wants to bump up one of the "elites" at this position to more than that, nod graciously and bow out. There's absolutely no reason to leech away any of your budget to the kicker position. Spend that extra money to get LaDainian Tomlinson, for heaven's sake.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner across all three of those sports. You can e-mail him here.