(Editor's note: Following each of the Breeders' Cup Challenge weekends, we will present a look back at the races, the performers and the ramifications. The winners of the Challenge races earn automatic berths into Breeders' Cup races. In other words, win and you're in.)
THE ROAD TO THE BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC - POWERED BY DODGE
In a field that was headed by the incomparable Lava Man and included several accomplished horses, it's easy to see why Student Council was overlooked in the Pacific Classic, a major prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic. He had never won a graded stakes race, let alone a Grade 1 race, let alone a $1 million race. But Student Council was making his first start for a new trainer Vladimir Cerin, and sometimes a mere change of scenery can do wonders for a horse. In the 21st start of his career, Student Council turned in what was by far his best career race, winning the Pacific Classic at Del Mar by a half-length at odds of 23-1.
"This horse was just so professional and classy today," winning jockey Richard Migliore said. "You couldn't ask more from a horse."
The question handicappers must now ask is this: was his Pacific Classic win a fluke or is Student Council a new horse?
Strange things can happen over Polytrack and the results of the Pacific Classic were, well, a bit weird, suggesting that the track surface had a lot to do with the outcome.
Lava Man, ultra-consistent, as long as the race is run in California, turned in a poor performance, finishing sixth. The "he didn't like the track" excuse is normally the lamest one in the book, but it's probable that Lava Man just didn't take to Del Mar's quirky surface. Second-choice Sun Boat was so bad that he was eased. Student Council had never showed any indications that he had the ability to beat horses of this caliber. And the final time for the mile-and-a-quarter was 2:07.29, which is slow on any surface in any condition.
That doesn't necessarily mean that Student Council will be a one-hit wonder. By Kingmambo, he has the pedigree to be a good horse. Could he finally have come into his own? It happens.
Cerin said Student Council will either run next in the Goodwood at Santa Anita or train up to the Breeders' Cup.
Awesome Gem was closing strongly at the end and might have caught Student Council had the race been a bit longer or had he gotten into gear a bit early. He is a consistent horses who might give the Breeders' Cup a try, but he appears to be a cut below the very best of the division.
The Breeders' Cup forecast for Lava Man was cloudy going into the Pacific Classic and his performance did nothing to clear up the picture. Because of Lava Man's odd habit of flopping every time he runs outside of California, trainer Doug O'Neill didn't seem to be relishing the thought of shipping his horse across the country to run in the Classic at Monmouth. Now, he's got the added problem of trying to figure out why Lava Man threw in a clinker. The guess is that Lava Man will not try the Breeders' Cup this year.
Student Council's chances in the Classic: Shaky
THE ROAD TO THE TVG BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT
It's a safe bet that trainer David Hofmans wishes the Breeders' Cup were run at Del Mar this year. The best sprinter in his barn, Greg's Gold, clearly loves the place. He won Sunday's Pat O'Brien Handicap, upping his Del Mar record to two wins and two seconds from four career starts. He won the Pat O'Brien by two lengths over Surf Cat.
As is often the case, the prospective field for the Sprint includes many solid horses but no one standout. Greg's Gold looks like one of many who figures to have a chance, should he bring his A game and have a good trip. The main question will be how he fares on an unfamiliar surface.
Winning trainer David Hofmans may get his answer soon. He is considering starting Greg's Gold next in the Phoenix at Keeneland. Another possibility, he said, is the Ancient Title at Santa Anita. In Greg's Gold's lone start outside of California, he ran a poor fourth in the Aristides at Churchill Downs.
The big disappointment in the Pat O'Brien was Bordonaro, who was fourth in last year's Sprint. He set the pace and faded to last. Clearly, his game -- run as fast as you can for as long as you can -- doesn't work at the new Del Mar. He deserves another chance.
"He rated kind enough for me, but he just got done in by the track again," his jockey, Richard Migliore, said. "It's too bad. He's a better horse than this, but he just can't show it here."
Greg's Gold's chances in the Sprint: Fair
THE ROAD TO THE NETJETS BREEDERS' CUP MILE
John Sadler was pretty certain that Crossing The Line had the class to win a North American stakes race, but he knew that the gelding had to prove it. That was the challenge for the New Zealand-bred in the Del Mar Handicap, where Cross The Line faced more accomplished horses.
"He was really sensational in his two wins at Hollywood (in allowance races)," Sadler said. "He did it so impressively that I really thought he could take the next step, but you never know till you run him."
Now, he knows. Crossing The Line is one of the best turf milers in the country. In his stakes debut, he won the Del Mar Handicap by three-quarters of a length over Becrux and he did it with style. He had just three horses beat at the eighth-pole but flew past his rivals when it counted. He is a perfect 3-for-3 in his three starts in the U.S. He began his career in his native country.
Crossing the Line must be supplemented to the Breeders' Cup. Winning trainer John Sadler said the decision will not be made until after the horse's next start, which will likely come in the Oak Tree Mile.
Crossing The Line's chances in the Mile: Solid (if he runs)
Bill Finley is an award-winning racing writer whose work has appeared in the New York Times, USA Today and Sports Illustrated. Contact Bill at wnfinley@aol.com.