Football
Scott Engel, ESPN Fantasy Games 17y

Engel's mailbag: Larry Johnson sliding

Russell, Boca Raton, Fla.: I can only keep two players, and not from the same position. I have Reggie Bush and Travis Henry, so who should I keep at running back? Also, I have Carson Palmer, Drew Brees and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, so should I keep a good wide receiver or a great quarterback like Palmer?

Engel: I believe Bush and Henry are both set for great seasons in 2007, but Bush is only in his second pro campaign and is more versatile than Henry. Bush started slowly last year, but was clearly a star by the NFL playoffs and will post excellent all-around numbers from start to finish in 2007. In yearly leagues, I'd take Henry, but I prefer Bush as the keeper. Houshmandzadeh is a top-15 fantasy wide receiver, but Brees and Palmer are top five at their position. I'd go with the quarterback, and I give the slight edge to Palmer, as he will throw a few more scoring passes than Brees. Palmer has thrown 60 touchdown passes over the past two seasons, while Brees has thrown 50 and has two running backs who will always be threats in the red zone. I'd keep Bush and Palmer and make sure I get a top wide receiver and a running back with my first two draft picks.

Fred, Shreveport, La.: I'm in a league where we can keep two players from different positions from the previous year. I'm keeping Chad Johnson and Laurence Maroney. I pick sixth this year out of 10, and I will be left to choose a middle-of-the-pack running back or a quarterback like Carson Palmer or Drew Brees with that pick. I know you can't predict who will fall to you, but having a quarterback like Palmer sure sounds a lot better than Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson or any of the 15th-to-30th-ranked running backs going into the season.

Engel: I assume from you telling me who will be available, a lot of running backs will be kept in your league, so your first pick is a rare opportunity for you to get that solid No. 2 running back. I like Jones a lot heading into 2007, as he stabilizes the New York running game and will also catch passes out of the backfield. Benson can blossom now that he finally gets to carry it regularly. There aren't going to be too many quality choices available for the second running back spot, so get what you can right away. It's more important to get what is scarce when you can still get a very good quarterback with your second pick. Plus, unless you have not specified otherwise, you have to start only one quarterback, so they will be easier to come by on draft day. Taking an elite player at quarterback isn't the best strategy when a "middle-of-the-road" running back is a more precious fantasy commodity.

John, Hartford, Conn.: I have the second pick in a two-year keeper league. The top players available this year are LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Willie Parker and Peyton Manning. My keeper is Steven Jackson. With so many questions surrounding Larry Johnson, who should I take?

Engel: Obviously, Tomlinson goes first, and you already have the second-best player in fantasy on your roster. With Johnson holding out and facing the possibility of working with an inexperienced quarterback this season, his yearly value is down, but he is still a top keeper with excellent longer-term appeal. Alexander will be 30 when the season starts and has maybe two good years left, and Parker isn't quite on the level of those two. Johnson is still the best keeper pick of the three, but since you already have Jackson as your top running back, I see no need to use your first draft pick on another player from that position when you can get Manning. The Colts' quarterback is the safest player in fantasy football, and with the Jackson/Manning duo, you'll have two elite players at two different positions. You can then address your second running back slot in the second or third round.

Nick, East Lansing, Mich.: I have the third pick in our draft this year. LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson are sure to go first and second. Do I risk taking Larry Johnson at No. 3, or should I look toward Frank Gore or Shaun Alexander?

Engel: Several months ago, I was arguing that Johnson was still worth the second pick in fantasy football. Now, with the holdout and the Brodie Croyle factor, I am down on him in yearly leagues. Gore's broken hand also makes him a shaky third for now, and while I expect a rebound year from Alexander, it's simply too early for him at that spot. I love the upside of Joseph Addai, but I have some minor doubts about his ability to carry a heavy workload, plus the retirement of left tackle Tarik Glenn concerns me a bit. My earlier rankings are all out of whack now. Gore's injury, though, is not expected to keep him out of regular-season action, so I would still pick him third. I'd then rank Alexander fourth, Addai fifth and Johnson sixth in yearly leagues for now. But hey, that can change anytime soon.

Rick Flatt, Dearborn, Mich.: I am in a two-player keeper league and I have this group of guys to choose from: Rudi Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Travis Henry, Maurice Jones-Drew and Larry Fitzgerald. This year we are giving running backs a point per reception, and I have the third pick in the draft.

Engel: As much as I like Jones-Drew, even in a PPR league, he's not a No. 1 running back on the level of your other choices. I would also rather have a top-level running back than a wide receiver, so I will also eliminate Fitzgerald. Johnson has never been a receiving threat and may see his playing time threatened by rookie Kenny Irons as well. By deduction, that leaves Henry and Brown as your keepers. Henry is no pass-catching threat, either, but you'll get at least one outstanding year from him in 2007 and he will be very good in 2008 also. Brown is potentially versatile, and Trent Green will make more of his receiving skills than his Miami predecessors did. Brown will soon become one of the best all-around running backs in fantasy football. Keep Henry and Brown, and then use your first draft choice on the best available wide receiver.

Scott Engel covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can contact Scott here.

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