In their first season under Herm Edwards, the Chiefs managed to make the playoffs. Kansas City stayed afloat despite the retirement of All-Pro tackle Willie Roaf and the absence of Trent Green for eight games because of a concussion.
Green was sent to Miami during the offseason, and Edwards hopes to usher in a new era under second-year quarterback Brodie Croyle. It won't be an easy transition, though. There will be questions about Croyle's inexperience, a thin wide receiver corps and more changes on the offensive line. The biggest problem could be Larry Johnson holding out for a new contract. Even if he does get things worked out, there are other concerns surrounding the team's best player.
Key Additions
WR Dwayne Bowe
OT Damion McIntosh
LB Donnie Edwards
LB Napoleon Harris
DT Alfonso Boone
Key Losses
QB Trent Green
OG Will Shields
OT Jordan Black
K Lawrence Tynes
Probable Lineup
QB: Brodie Croyle
RB1: Larry Johnson
RB2: Michael Bennett
WR1: Eddie Kennison
WR2: Samie Parker
WR3: Dwayne Bowe
TE: Tony Gonzalez
K: Justin Medlock
Key Backups/Position Battles
Quarterbacks
Edwards has made it clear he wants to give Croyle every opportunity to win the starting job during the preseason. Croyle looked sharp during recent minicamps; he's a natural leader who makes quick decisions; he displays good accuracy, puts a lot of zip on his passes and also played in a pro-style offense at Alabama.
There are concerns about his durability and strength, though. Croyle is listed at 203 pounds and missed much of training camp last year with a shoulder problem. In addition, he had to overcome a major knee injury at Alabama. Croyle needs to bulk up and is not mobile. There will be natural growing pains if he begins the season as the starter, and he won't post good fantasy numbers playing in a conservative offense. Croyle should not be drafted in fantasy leagues.
Damon Huard will be ready to start at a moment's notice. Huard is very comfortable at the controls of Kansas City's ball-control offense. He threw 11 touchdown passes and one interception in eight starts last year.
Running Backs
Veteran Michael Bennett would be the starter if Johnson makes good on his holdout threat, but he is an infamous injury risk who missed considerable time last year because of hamstring troubles. Rookie Kolby Smith is strong and has good vision, but has never carried a heavy workload. I'd expect Bennett and Smith to share carries if the Chiefs need to replace Johnson. Bennett's speed could mean a few long runs, but I would not trust him as a fantasy player. Smith could get some opportunities as a goal-line back. The real sleeper could be Derrick Ross, who was named the co-MVP of NFL Europa in 2007. He led the league with 802 rushing yards and 933 yards from scrimmage.
Wide Receivers
Samie Parker never blossomed as hoped. He caught only one touchdown pass in 2006. Bowe will take the starting job from him and should be one of the best rookie receivers in this year's class. He's a solid possession guy who can make things happen after the catch and will be an asset in the red zone. Bowe is worth a late-round pick and will be a top fantasy reserve in his first pro season as he shows a lot of promise.
Second-year man Jeff Webb is a nice package of size (6 feet, 2 inches, 211 pounds) and speed, but he's too raw to draw much fantasy attention yet. Chris Hannon is a burner, but will be buried on the depth chart.
Tight Ends
Jason Dunn is a great asset as a run blocker, but he and Kris Wilson offer no fantasy appeal.
Key Games/Bye
Week 2 @ Chicago Bears
Week 4 @ San Diego Chargers
Week 6 Cincinnati Bengals
Week 8 BYE
Week 11 @ Indianapolis Colts
Week 14 @ Denver Broncos
Week 15 Tennessee Titans
Week 16 @ Detroit Lions
Week 17 @ New York Jets
What to Look for in 2007
The uncertainties surrounding Johnson will hurt his fantasy outlook. Many owners won't be willing to spend a No. 2 overall pick on him when they consider the possible holdout, along with last year's record-setting workload and a shaky supporting cast. His 416 carries last year raise well-documented fears that he will be an injury risk in 2007 after undertaking such a grueling workload. On the positive side, Johnson has been a full-time starter for fewer than two years and the Chiefs plan to give him more breathers this season. They also want to use him more as a pass-catcher to get him the ball in open space.
Missed time in the preseason, however, could affect Johnson's conditioning. With the possibility of Croyle starting, there's additional fear that Johnson could face a lot of extra defensive attention early in the schedule. The retirement of Shields is another devastating blow to the offensive line. McIntosh is a minor improvement over the departed Black at left tackle, and the team is pinning its hopes on a Chris Terry comeback season at right tackle. Brian Waters is still a force at left guard but the unit is no longer one of the league's better groups. Even if he gets his contract situation settled, Johnson is going to have to battle harder for yardage in 2007.
Croyle doesn't have the weaponry needed to help him move the ball consistently, and this is not the type of offense to hand over to a quarterback with limited pro experience. It will be only a matter of time before Huard takes the job back, even if Croyle opens the season as the No. 1 guy. Huard will be a respectable fantasy starter when he gets back in driver's seat.
Eddie Kennison is no longer dependable and he is starting to slow down at age 34. He doesn't get enough chances to make big plays in a conservative offense, and is often overmatched against top cover cornerbacks. Bowe is the future No. 1 wideout, but the team's top pass-catcher is still tight end Tony Gonzalez. Lack of complementary talents in the passing game have caused him to draw a lot of double-teams, and his reception and touchdown totals have fallen over the past two seasons. The ESPN projections of 73 receptions, 900 yards and five touchdowns are still better than most players at his position.
Medlock set a UCLA record with six career field goals of 50-plus yards and he made 28 of 32 field goal attempts in 2006. He's a sleeper candidate. The additions of Edwards, Harris and Boone should improve the run defense, and rookie defensive tackles Turk McBride and DeMarcus Tyler offer more hope for the future. The Chiefs' front seven will be better, but will take time to gel, and cornerbacks Ty Law and Patrick Surtain have seen better days. The defensive unit won't be reliable in fantasy leagues. Linebacker Donnie Edwards and rising young defensive end Tamba Hali are top individual defenders.
Bottom Line
The Chiefs will struggle early if they insist on using Croyle and don't work out a deal with Johnson in timely fashion. If they can deploy the Huard/Johnson combination for most of the season, the offense should be respectable. Opening the season at Houston could cover up some problems, but reality will strike hard in a week two game at Chicago. With teams like the Bears, Bengals and Colts on the schedule, plus two matchups each with the Chargers and Broncos, the Chiefs need to come together quickly on offense to avoid a bumpy ride.
Scott Engel covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can contact Scott here.