NHL teams
Matthew Coller, Special to ESPN 7y

Sophomore Slump Threat Index: How will Matthews, Laine perform?

NHL, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Columbus Blue Jackets, Pittsburgh Penguins, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets

In the future, we might look back at the 2016-17 class of rookies as one of the best the NHL has ever seen.

Only a year removed from Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel owning the spotlight, the 2016 No. 1 and No. 2 picks put on a show in their debuts. And they were hardly the only ones. Fans around the league saw the emergence of exciting rookie scorers, top-pairing defensemen and even a franchise goalie.

But every season, some of the top rookies from the previous campaign hit a wall. Whether it's because opponents adapt or because coaches put more on the shoulders of their young players or simply a regression to the mean, the sophomore slump can be "a thing" in the NHL.

In 2015-16, for example, Arizona winger Anthony Duclair looked like a rising star, putting up 44 points in his rookie campaign. He followed that strong start with just five goals and 10 assists in 58 games in 2016-17 and saw his shooting percentage drop from 19.0 percent to 6.6.

On the other hand, we also saw McDavid rocket from a strong start as a rookie to winning the Hart Trophy as league MVP.

How will the historically good 2016-17 class fair in their sophomore seasons? We're breaking out the Sophomore Slump Threat Index:

  • Green: Not a candidate for a sophomore slump

  • Yellow: Sophomore slump a possibility

  • Red: Good chance of sophomore slump


Top five Calder Trophy finalists

Matz

Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
Key 2016-17 stats: 82 games, 40 goals, 29 assists, league-leading 32 even-strength goals, 14.3 percent shooting percentage
Threat level:

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