Last year, the two worst divisions in the NFL were clearly the AFC South and the NFC East. But those two divisions have gone in very different directions this year.
The AFC South is still terrible. Every team in the division ranks 20th or lower in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and all four teams average fewer than 7.5 wins in our 50,000 simulations this week. The AFC South champion now goes 8-8 or worse in 40 percent of simulations and has a losing record 9.1 percent of the time. An AFC South team wins the Super Bowl in just 1.3 percent of simulations, which gives the entire division worse Super Bowl odds than 13 different teams.
On the other hand, the NFC East has been outstanding this year. Defense has improved in Washington, New York, and especially Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Dallas has the best offense in the league thanks to great performances from two rookies, quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott. Every team in the NFC East has a winning record right now, and all four teams are also above-average in DVOA. This week, we end up with every NFC East team finishing 8-8 or better in 42.5 percent of simulations. The entire division has a winning record in 12.2 percent of simulations, roughly a 1-in-8 chance.
And yet ... the NFC East may not be the best division in the game. The AFC West has three teams with winning records and the underrated 3-4 San Diego Chargers. AFC West teams also get easier schedules than their NFC East counterparts, which mean there are even better odds of the whole division finishing with a winning record. The AFC West has every team at 8-8 or better in 47.8 percent of simulations, and every team has a winning record in 14.7 percent of simulations.
Once again, we're doing our weekly run through the playoff odds for all 32 teams in the NFL. For a full explanation on how we calculate each team's playoff odds, see the bottom of the article.
AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
FAVORITES
1. New England Patriots (6-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 95.7 percent
The Patriots have climbed from 13th to third in offensive DVOA since Tom Brady's return three weeks ago. They now have the best record in the NFL and are clearly in the driver's seat for home-field advantage. The Patriots take the No. 1 seed in over half our simulations (55.7 percent) and get a first-round bye 78 percent of the time. The biggest thing standing between the Patriots and a top-two seed isn't Denver or Pittsburgh; it's a Buffalo surge that would knock them into a wild-card spot. If the Patriots beat Buffalo this week, their odds of getting the No. 1 seed go up to 70.3 percent and their odds of a first-round bye increase to 93.4 percent.