NCAAM teams
ESPN.com 8y

Hype, expectations, youth among roadblocks for top 25 teams

Men's College Basketball, North Carolina Tar Heels, Wisconsin Badgers, Connecticut Huskies, Kansas Jayhawks, Duke Blue Devils, Villanova Wildcats, Kentucky Wildcats, Virginia Cavaliers, Oregon Ducks, Xavier Musketeers, Michigan State Spartans, Indiana Hoosiers, Arizona Wildcats, Louisville Cardinals, Purdue Boilermakers, West Virginia Mountaineers, Gonzaga Bulldogs, UCLA Bruins, Maryland Terrapins, Saint Mary's Gaels, Creighton Bluejays, Rhode Island Rams, Cincinnati Bearcats, Florida State Seminoles, Syracuse Orange

The Way-Too-Early Top 25 rankings for next season in college basketball have been updated, and with that, we've decided to look beyond the on-the-court talent and see what lies in the future. Just because they are in the top 25, it doesn't mean it will be clear sailing for these coaches. It's time to look at the challenges ahead.

1. Duke Blue Devils
Quality and quantity are supposed to be dichotomous. Every now and then, though, a truly special roster bends this talent calculation into an all-you-can-eat-buffet. Mike Krzyzewski will lead one of the latter group in 2016-17, and thus his greatest coaching challenge will be in balancing the individual expectations of stellar freshmen with those of veterans, who either starred in last season's shallow rotation (Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Matt Jones) or want redemption from variously disappointing seasons (Amile Jefferson, Chase Jeter). Fortunately for Duke, Coach K has some experience in this field. -- Eamonn Brennan

2. Villanova Wildcats
Pretty simple: expectations. Jay Wright's team will have a target on its back all year after returning a significant portion of a team that cut down the nets last April. Sure, the Wildcats lost Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu -- but they still have Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Jalen Brunson and will be put in a class with Duke and Kentucky this season in terms of favorites. A year ago, Villanova snuck up on people. That won't happen this year. -- Jeff Goodman

3. Kentucky Wildcats
John Calipari will have the task of getting talented freshmen to play like talented veterans. If any coach in Division I should be able to dispense with clichés about "veteran leadership," it's Calipari. Yet history suggests that, even in Lexington, returning experience matters, and this season Isaiah Briscoe is the only returnee who averaged more than 19 minutes a game in 2015-16. The NBA potential of freshmen like De'Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo is clear, but UK's 2016-17 season will rise or fall depending on whether their college performance is closer to Jamal Murray's or Skal Labissiere's. -- John Gasaway

4. Kansas Jayhawks
Oh, to have Bill Self's problems. Devonte' Graham and Frank Mason are back, Josh Jackson is in town and winning another Big 12 title is likely. Self's biggest issue? Controlling the hype. He has seen players struggle, if not entirely wither, under the weight of expectation. It happened recently, with Andrew Wiggins and Cheick Diallo. So keeping the hype machine down around Jackson will be key. As good as he is, he is not a reliable senior, as Perry Ellis was. There will be a growth curve. It could be small or intermittent, but it will happen and Self has to help Jackson weather whatever storm he encounters. -- Dana O'Neil

5. Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavs lost all-everything guard Malcolm Brogdon and interior threats Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey. How important was Brogdon? The 39-percent shooter from the 3-point line finished 12-for-51 from beyond the arc in Virginia's eight losses. When he went cold, things fell apart for Virginia. Gill and Tobey were critical in the pack-line scheme's aim to disrupt everything inside and dominate the defensive boards. Now they're all gone. But Tony Bennett's roster features the talent and potential to limit the drop-off from last season's Elite Eight squad. Memphis transfer Austin Nichols (13.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.4 BPG) is eligible. And Kyle Guy, a McDonald's All American wing, anchors a top-10 recruiting class. Plus, London Perrantes returns. But how will that all come together for Bennett? Can Nichols help the Cavs limit opponents' touches in the paint and play an effective offensive role in Virginia's pass-first-second-and-third offense? Will Guy and his freshman teammates defend and play with the toughness required in the ACC? Yes, most coaches replace veterans each season. But Virginia lost a special class of seniors. Bennett's newcomers might need some time to adjust to their roles and the burden they'll inherit once the season begins. -- Myron Medcalf

6. North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels will again have a strong inside game with the return of Kennedy Meeks, the expanded role of Isaiah Hicks and the addition of freshman Tony Bradley. But Roy Williams has faced the same question the past few seasons: Who will prevent opponents from packing it in the lane? Carolina got just 20 percent of its scoring from 3-point range last year, which ranked 342 among Division I schools according to Ken Pomeroy. Even more than his leadership, it's the area where Marcus Paige's absence will hurt the most. -- C.L. Brown

7. Oregon Ducks
Motivation is hard enough when you have no laurels to rest on. Imagine how much harder it must be for a group of players -- still basically intact -- that just won the Pac-12 regular-season and conference titles en route to an Elite Eight appearance. Oregon will enter 2016-17 with no obvious challenger to its Pac-12 throne, with an NCAA tournament appearance seemingly guaranteed. While we've seen teams like this take a year-over-year leap (the Frank Kaminsky-era Wisconsin Badgers come to mind) a single-minded focus on postseason glory can present a coach with unforeseen challenges along the way. -- Brennan

8. Wisconsin Badgers
Last season was a roller coaster, on and off the court. The Badgers started slow, then Bo Ryan abruptly retired, Wisconsin got rolling and interim coach Greg Gard got the permanent gig. Gard's biggest challenge will be to get the most he can out of the duo of Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes. The two need to feed off one another and play like a pair of first-team Big Ten guys. -- Goodman

9. Xavier Musketeers
Last week, Myles Davis was suspended indefinitely after a judge issued a protective order on behalf of the senior guard's ex-girlfriend. (Davis denies the allegations that led to the judge's order.) Even with Edmond Sumner on hand, there is now uncertainty attached to what figured to be an exceptionally strong XU backcourt. -- Gasaway

10. Michigan State Spartans
Tom Izzo has arguably the most talented recruiting class of his Hall of Fame career. He has terrific returning talent in the form of Eron Harris and Lourawls "TumTum" Nairn Jr. But Denzel Valentine is not walking through that door. And it's not Valentine's scoring (first on the team), assists (also tops) or rebounds (second) that is the most difficult for Izzo to replace. It's his leadership. When Michigan State is at its best, a player leads the charge -- Steve Smith to Mateen Cleaves to Draymond Green to Valentine. Finding someone to take those reins from Valentine will be the key to the Spartans' success. -- O'Neil

11. Indiana Hoosiers
Thomas Bryant had a chance to secure a first-round, guaranteed contract in last summer's NBA draft. He returned, however, to elevate his stock and work on his defensive edge and rebounding. Few freshmen rivaled his production in his first season in Bloomington. He made 70.7 percent of his shots inside the arc, seventh in the country. He finished 35th in KenPom.com's efficiency rankings. Still, the 6-foot-10 forward lacked the frame and, at times, the desire to make the same impact as a defender and rebounder. He finished outside the top 150 in offensive rebounding rate (153rd), defensive rebounding rate (289th) and block percentage (276th) last season. He's capable of evolving into one of the nation's most complete players, a great force on both sides of the floor. Some of that depends on the muscle he added to his body since last season. And part of that is attitude. The guy who put up 19 points, five rebounds, two steals and a block during Indiana's win over Kentucky in the Sweet 16 needs to show up every night for Tom Crean's team. He has that potential. -- Medcalf

12. Arizona Wildcats
Talent? That has never been the problem for Sean Miller in Arizona. He's welcoming three five-star-caliber players: power forward Lauri Markkanen, guard Kobi Simmons and small forward Rawle Alkins. And that's in addition to last year's marquee recruit, Allonzo Trier, deciding to stick around another year instead of turning pro. The Wildcats who just exhausted their eligibility -- Ryan Anderson, Gabe York and Kaleb Tarczewski among them -- gladly accepted their roles and didn't try to played outside of their capabilities. Can Miller convince the members of this freshman class, who individually are used to being the center of attention, to do the same? -- Brown

13. Louisville Cardinals
This seems like the kind of thing that proves challenging to a coach. Just a hunch. -- Brennan

14. Purdue Boilermakers
This one is easy. It's all about getting quality point guard play for Matt Painter. That will ultimately determine how far the Boilermakers go this year. The addition of Michigan grad transfer Spike Albrecht will certainly help. The question with Albrecht is his health. Then there is holdover P.J. Thompson, who was solid a year ago. Can these guys -- along with freshman Carsen Edwards -- form a group that is effective enough in West Lafayette? That's Painter's biggest challenge. --Goodman

15. West Virginia Mountaineers
The "Press Virginia" defense worked beautifully last season, forcing league opponents to commit turnovers on 22 percent of their possessions. And with Jevon Carter, Daxter Miles and Tarik Phillip all returning, it's likely opposing offenses will once again struggle to take care of the rock. The challenge now for coach Bob Huggins is to improve an offense that ranked fifth in Big 12 play -- and to do so without the numerous offensive boards previously recorded by Devin Williams. -- Gasaway

16. Gonzaga Bulldogs
What Mark Few needs most is entirely out of his own control. He needs a healthy Przemek Karnowski. With Nigel Williams-Goss, Johnathan Williams III and Zach Collins, Few could have more weapons than he did a year ago, but how Karnowski recovers from back surgery will be key to the Zags' success. He's not just talented, he's experienced and smart, the glue that can help connect all the unique pieces that make up Gonzaga's roster. Karnowski has been cleared for basketball activities, but is understandably taking his rehab slow. -- O'Neil

17. UCLA Bruins
After last year's turbulence, Steve Alford returned his previous extension when some of the school's supporters demanded his firing. That didn't happen. But everyone knows Alford enters 2016-17 with an uncertain future. Still, his recruiting class should eliminate any negative chatter if it matches the preseason hype. There is a problem, though. His point guard and son, Bryce Alford, is the kind of floor leader who plays best when he's in control (25.2 assist rate) -- although, he's reckless too often (13.6 percent turnover rate). He is a senior who understands his father's expectations and schemes. Lonzo Ball, however, did not sign with the Bruins to defer. Sure, he will when necessary. But if you have a 6-5, five-star point guard who could make millions in the NBA as a lottery pick in 2017, you give him the ball. He's the most promising talent on the UCLA roster. And he, like Bryce Alford, is also a point guard. How will the head coach deal with that if it becomes a dilemma during the season? -- Medcalf

18. Maryland Terrapins
Mark Turgeon's challenge starts with getting his star player's confidence back. As a sophomore, Melo Trimble wasn't quite the same player he was as a freshman. His shooting percentage from 3-point range dipped by 10 percent. Although he was still the Terrapins' leading scorer, he struggled with balancing whether he should hunt for his own shot or if he needed to distribute. That shouldn't be the case this season, as the Terps go from a team loaded with talent and experience to a young team of role players. The Terps will go as Trimble goes. -- Brown

19. Saint Mary's Gaels
In a word? Scheduling. In March, notoriously polite Gonzaga coach Mark Few told the Spokesman-Review that it was "time for some of these other [West Coast Conference] institutions to start picking it up" because they were "really dragging the top three down." The Gaels' absence from the NCAA tournament, despite their surprise WCC regular-season title, was an indictment of much of their league, sure, but a weak nonconference schedule did them no favors. This will be a good team, but it needs chances to prove it before January. -- Brennan

20. Creighton Bluejays
Greg McDermott has a quality point guard, Mo Watson, and some nice pieces around him, but the key will be whether he can get former Kansas State scoring guard Marcus Foster back on track. Remember, Foster averaged 15.5 points as a freshman at K-State before a disappointing sophomore campaign. If McDermott can get Foster's head straight, the Bluejays will have a chance to remain in the Top 25 all year. -- Goodman

21. Rhode Island Rams
Two seasons ago, in 2014-15, URI came within an eyelash of making the NCAA tournament, and that was from a team that shot just 26 percent (not a typo) on its 3s in Atlantic 10 play. In other words, Dan Hurley really knows how to coach defense. In 2015-16, that knowledge was insufficient, as E.C. Matthews missed all but the season's first 10 minutes with a knee injury. Now Matthews is reportedly healthy, Indiana transfer Stanford Robinson is eligible and the Rams are bringing back Jared Terrell, Jarvis Garrett, Kuran Iverson and Hassan Martin. If this group stays healthy, Hurley has a great shot at getting Rhody into its first NCAA tournament since 1999. -- Gasaway

22. Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats are always tough. They always defend. They always rebound. They don't always score. Cincinnati averaged 73.2 points per game last year, just 176th in the nation. To win games, eventually the ball has to go in the basket with some version of regularity. If Troy Caupain, Gary Clark and NC State transfer Kyle Washington can elevate the Bearcats' numbers, they will be even tougher than they already are. -- O'Neil

23. Florida State Seminoles
Leonard Hamilton lost Malik Beasley to the NBA draft, but that departure didn't ruin Florida State's plans for 2016-17. Dwayne Bacon (15.8 PPG) and Xavier Rathan-Mayes (11.8 PPG) are both back. And Jonathan Isaac, a 6-10 freshman forward, is a projected lottery pick for the 2017 NBA draft. Trent Forrest is a top-50 player, too. Hamilton, again, has a team that will play fast. Florida State has missed the NCAA tournament the past four seasons, however, due to defensive issues. In ACC play in 2015-16, FSU collected 1.06 points per possession but surrendered 1.07 PPP. The program hasn't registered a winning season in conference play since 2011-12, despite a recruiting haul that's included multiple four- and five-star recruits. This is an important season for Hamilton. And he needs his explosive scorers to commit to defense. -- Medcalf

24. Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies weren't exactly an explosive team offensively last season, and three of their top four scorers are no longer around. Rodney Purvis, who led UConn with 12.8 PPG, is back. But outside of Purvis, the Huskies have no proven scorers in the rotation. Kevin Ollie will have to find a few from his five-man recruiting class that RecruitingNation ranked ninth. Freshman point guard Alterique Gilbert and VCU transfer Terry Larrier could be among the newcomers to start, and preferably for UConn they'll bring a scoring punch to the lineup. -- Brown

25. Syracuse Orange
Tyler Roberson is a rebounding machine. Tyler Lydon, a 40 percent 3-point shooter on the offensive end, had 17 blocks in three games in Syracuse's Final Four run last March. Which is to say: Jim Boeheim's frontcourt will be just fine. The challenges for Boeheim will entirely center on the backcourt, where the departures of Michael Gbinije, Trevor Cooney and Malachi Richardson will force huge responsibilities -- both offensively and in that trademark 2-3 zone -- on freshman Tyus Battle, Nebraska transfer Andrew White and little-used rising sophomore Franklin Howard. -- Brennan

^ Back to Top ^