LeBron James could be the first high school junior to challenge the NBA's rule that is supposed to prevent a player whose class isn't graduating from declaring for the draft.
If James chooses to challenge the NBA's collective barganing agreement in court, he'll probably win the case because of his right to work once he's 18. His legal team could argue that he is being denied his right to pursue his potential earnings, considering NBA scouts say the 6-foot-7 Akron (Ohio) St. Vincent-St. Mary High rising junior is the best high school player -- regardless of class -- and he likely would be a lock for the 2002 lottery.
But while James may be physically ready to battle NBA players, he may not be as apt to blaze such a paper trail in court.
"I'll see in a year or two," James said. "Right now, I'm going to go to college. If I'm not sure about what will happen, I will go to college. That's what you should do if you're not sure."
Less than a month after four high school seniors were taken in the first eight picks of the draft, high school players are still dealing with conflicting emotions on whether or not it's right to make the early jump to the NBA.
Sani Ibrahim, a 6-10 center who is being moved around like a piece of property -- from Winchendon School (Mass.) to Oak Hill Academy (Va.) -- is expected to declare for the '02 draft, but not because he's a lock for the lottery. Rather, he has been told by someone that playing well, even if it was for just one game last summer against Eddy Curry or Kwame Brown, means he's ready for the NBA.
"A lot of people say I should go to the league because I played with those big guys last year and they weren't far away better than me," said Ibrahim, who wouldn't divulge who the "they" were that was telling him he was ready for the NBA. "They say I have a chance to be a lottery pick and if so, I should go."
All the talk of skipping college has even the peers of James and Ibrahim a bit anxious.
"It's really scary that a lot of kids (at Nike camp) were thinking about going to the NBA out of high school," said 6-4 Rashad McCants, a rising senior from New Hampton Prep (N.H.) who committed to North Carolina. "There still could be a lot of players coming out of this class and declaring for the NBA."
The high school seniors at Nike and adidas camps talked a lot about possibly missing out on the college experience. Bracey Wright, a 6-3 wing who is a rising senior at The Colony High in Texas and a likely Indiana signee, said there was plenty of talk about Indiana, North Carolina, Duke and their potential matchups in 2002-03. There were further points raised by players like Sean Dockery, a 6-2 rising senior at Chicago's Julian High and a Duke committed player, who cited how much fun his friend Imari Sawyer is having at DePaul.
"He's having the best time of his life in college," Dockery said. "Some people say you have fun with the money in the NBA, but it's no joke about how much fun you'll have fun in college."
But analyzing what the big men in camp must be thinking after last month's draft was twofold.
Some see Brown, the top pick in the NBA draft, walking across to meet NBA commissioner David Stern. Others look at Ousmane Cisse, who was taken in the second round by Denver and must make the team to ensure a guaranteed contract over the next few seasons.
"Last year, I thought Cisse was dominant in the summer," said 6-8 rising Bloomington North senior Sean May. "That's why I say he should have gone to college for at least one year and then made the jump. He wasn't guaranteed anything. Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Kwame Brown and DeSagana Diop went in the top 10. But most of the athletes should go to college first."
The one consensus is that 6-10 Amare Stoudemire, the oft-traveled rising high school senior who is at his sixth high school, will declare for the draft. Potential NCAA violations from an alleged payment from Nike to his mother, Carrie, and the hiring of a public relations agent (even though it's allegedly pro-bono) have caused concern with the NCAA.
Stoudemire committed to Memphis in February, but largely to get college coaches off his back and eliminate the recruiting process. His public relations flak, Marc Little, is hedging on the commitment but still says it's 50-50 if Stoudemire goes to college. His eligibility could make that a moot point by the first of the year.
Regardless, Stoudemire's classmates are convinced he'll declare for the draft and likely be in the lottery. Not just because he's talented, but rather the fact that he's a big man who has elite skills to score, block shots and run the floor.
"Those guys that left and went high in the first round were all big men and that's why that happened," said 6-10 Tabor Academy (Mass.) rising senior Torin Francis. "In our class, a lot of the big men don't stand out as much, except Stoudemire. Everybody else is good skill-wise, but probably should go to college, get better and then go to the next level. Those guys last year knew they were going and if you know, then you should go."
But there's a difference between knowing and having a false read on their abilities and place in the draft.
Ibrahim said he wouldn't even consider a list of schools until he makes up his mind on whether or not he's declaring for the draft. Ibrahim said he should know that answer by the end of August. But he's banking on someone in the know telling him he'll go high in the draft so he can bypass college. He's aware that he needs to be more aggressive, improve his scoring ability and intensity.
But, "it's hard to see a 6-11 or 7-foot player going to college these days," Ibrahim said.
That's why 6-10 Shavlik Randolph (Raleigh Broughton H.S./N.C.) and 6-10 DeAngelo Collins (Inglewood H.S./Calif.) are with Stoudemire and Ibrahim on the NBA scout's short list to watch this summer in case they declare for the draft. Only Stoudemire is billed as a "can't miss" lottery selection, while Randolph has the shooter's touch and basketball savvy (see: nose for the ball and overall activity). But Randolph lacks the strength to take him too seriously yet. Wings like 6-6 Lenny Cooke, who is listed as having a high school destination as "TBA", 6-7 Evan Burns (Los Angeles Fairfax H.S.) and 6-5 Kelenna Azubuike (Tulsa Victory Christian H.S/Okla.) are all making overtures about declaring.
"You don't have to go to college anymore," said 6-7 Cortez Davis, a rising senior from Hargrave Military Academy (Va.), who had originally committed to Maryland but is still open. "A lot of guys are doing the NBA workouts and if you work hard on your own time, you can make yourself better. But you have to almost be guaranteed before you go."
Big men have a built-in advantage. The only true perimeter player to bolt was Kobe Bryant and to some extent Tracy McGrady, even though he was more of a small forward in high school. James could easily bust the trend if he declares.
"Big men have it easier to get to the NBA out of high school than guards," Azubuike said. "Sometimes players need to stay longer to develop their game and some need to go earlier because their stock is set at the highest it can go. You've got to make your choice to leave at the right time. That's the one thing I need to do is be sure to know where I'm going and make my decision from there. If I think I'm ready, then I'll go."
But therein is the problem for the class of 2002 and beyond: they may think they're ready, but the NBA may not. If they're a Brown, Curry, Chandler or Diop, then it's hard to argue against leaving. If they're a Cisse, then they could end up making a major mistake.
But a handful will continue to take the risk as long as they think it's worth the gamble.
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.
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