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Tuesday, March 13New starting points toward Minneapolis
By Andy Katz
ESPN.com
The NCAA Tournament is the third season to most coaches and players and that means it's a whole new year. So much can change in three weeks. Remember, Wisconsin barely got into the field last year but all people will take from the 2000 tourney was its Final Four appearance. Michigan State entered the field with seven losses last year, yet won the title. Which team do you think gets talked about more?
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| If Jobey Thomas and Charlotte's shooters get hot, Tennessee could be in trouble Friday. |
Duke: The Blue Devils enter the tournament as the team to beat based on their run through the ACC tournament. Duke is playing better basketball than any other team in the nation. While Stanford might be the top seed in the bracket, Duke is going into the tournament as the team to beat. Duke is shooting the ball at a better clip than any other team right now with Shane Battier, Mike Dunleavy and Jason Williams on fire from 3-point range. Duke's defense was suffocating in the tournament title game against North Carolina. Carlos Boozer is due back at some point during the tournament. Once he does rejoin the Blue Devils, Duke should be able to get the inside-out balance it needs for a six-game run. This doesn't mean Duke is unbeatable, but it is the favorite. Team on the rise
Arizona: The Wildcats are just a nudge below the Blue Devils heading into the tournament. Arizona, ESPN.com's preseason No. 1, has a legit chance to win the title based on the unselfish play that has carried the team recently. Loren Woods accepted his role as a defensive stopper and is no longer trying to be something he's not – a go-to guy inside. Michael Wright is satisfied with his looks in the paint. Gilbert Arenas became the go-to player on the perimeter and Richard Jefferson accepted that by focusing more on defense. Jason Gardner became a much better on-the-ball defender. The difference in the Wildcats was their focus and intensity since Lute Olson returned to the team. Having Olson back allowed the Wildcats to believe in themselves again. Arizona's win over Stanford gave the Wildcats the confidence that they could compete for the title. Top 5 sleepers
Charlotte: Hey, back in November, ESPN.com had the 49ers at No. 25, we just didn't know it would take until March for them to get everything figured out. The 49ers have the best collection of shooters outside of Duke when they're on. If Rodney White, Diego Guevara and Jobey Thomas are hitting their shots then the 49ers are a team that could get to the Sweet 16. But their erratic defensive effort could get them in trouble against either Tennessee or Illinois. Gonzaga: The bracket opens up for the Bulldogs with a first-round game against Virginia. The Cavaliers could have trouble containing Dan Dickau and Blake Stepp. These guys actually don't mind being pressed. Casey Calvary is strong enough to wreak havoc inside. Gonzaga's inside-out combination could pose a problem for Oklahoma in round two, as well. And don't underestimate experience. Gonzaga has it and Virginia doesn't in the first round. Providence: The Friars haven't been there but neither has this edition of Penn State. If guard John Linehan can shut down Joe Crispin then the Friars have a shot to advance to the second round. Linehan could cause problems for Ron Curry, Adam Boone and Brian Morrison of North Carolina in a potential second-round matchup. The Friars have the inside game with Karim Shabazz, although they've got to get to the boards better than they did at the end of the Big East season. A 10 seed means the committee didn't respect the Friars and that is good fodder for the team. BYU: Steve Cleveland doesn't get enough credit for the turnaround he engineered in Provo. Cleveland has the inside-out combination with Mekeli Wesley under the boards and Trent Whiting and Terrell Lyday on the perimeter to give Cincinnati havoc. The Cougars are physical and can handle the Bearcats' toughness. If they get past Cincinnati, beating Indiana wouldn't be a stretch. Remember, a 12 beating a 5 seed usually occurs and this one might be the one to guess. Xavier: The Musketeers didn't play well in the Atlantic 10 tournament but that doesn't mean they should be given up on at this juncture. Xavier still has the physical player underneath in David West and a pair of guards in Maurice McAfee and Romain Sato that could handle Notre Dame. The Irish have a better go-to scorer in Troy Murphy and a rebounder in Ryan Humphrey but Xavier could cause them problems. If Xavier can get past Notre Dame, then the Musketeers have a legit shot to upset Ole Miss and get to Arizona in the Sweet 16. Five stumbling into the field
Wisconsin: The Badgers aren't playing well and Soderberg is worried that he hasn't been able to reach them recently. Wisconsin is once again having a hard time scoring and needs a wake-up call soon or it could get beat in the first round by Georgia State. Georgia: OK, the Bulldogs were everyone's pick to get into the field because of their strength of schedule. But Georgia didn't play well after a 6-1 start in the SEC. Georgia finished 9-7. Georgia has new life but getting bounced in the first round of the SEC tournament could mean it won't get past Missouri in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons didn't get a good draw in the ACC tournament, having to play a hot Maryland team. That game came a week after the Demon Deacons lost to Duke on a buzzer-beater. Wake didn't get any favors from the tourney selection committee by drawing Butler. But the Demon Deacons have to tighten their defense if they're going to advance past the Bulldogs and get to a matchup with Arizona in the second round. Syracuse: Preston Shumpert will likely play against Hawaii but the Orangemen lost to Pittsburgh in the Big East semifinals. Not a good way to get going into the NCAA Tournament. The Syracuse zone has been torched at times during the season. The Orangemen have to tighten the 'D' against Hawaii's Predrag Savovic or they could be an upset 12-5 victim. Syracuse seems ripe for the taking early in the tourney. Virginia: The Cavaliers didn't exactly storm into the field. They got blitzed to end the regular season at Maryland. They entered the ACC tournament hoping for a game with North Carolina but got humbled by Georgia Tech in the quarterfinals. Virginia has to play better defense and get some balance, mainly scoring inside, for it to get past Gonzaga in the first round. Even then, the Cavs would find Oklahoma waiting in round two, which isn't an easy chore. Top player entering the tourney
Shane Battier, Duke: Battier has been sensational during the stretch run for the Blue Devils. If they need a 3-pointer, he's there to take one and give them a lead. If a block or a steal is needed then he's usually in the right spot to make the play. Battier, the ESPN.com player of the year, is the most complete player in the tournament. Five players to watch
Gilbert Arenas, Arizona: He's the Wildcats' go-to player and the one that teams will have trouble defending on a 3. But if you give him room, Arenas can get past for a layup or a dunk. He's quick on the break for a transition basket and he's playing with more confidence than at any point in the season. He's now taking shots he can make, instead of ones he can't. Juan Dixon, Maryland: Dixon made a conscious decision when he sat by himself in the weight room after the Florida State home loss that he was going to get Maryland on track. He has done that by putting Maryland on his back and carrying them to a 3 seed. Dixon has the range to open up a game with a deep 3 while also creating his own shot off the dribble. Jason Collins, Stanford: The Cardinal center is diversifying his game with 3s to complement his power game in the post. Collins can still get in foul trouble too easily in the first half. He had three fouls and was limited to five minutes against Arizona last Thursday, but he scored eight points. If Collins can stay on the floor, he makes it hard for an opponent to match up against the Stanford big men. Troy Bell, Boston College: The Eagles sophomore and co-Big East player of the year is a winner. That said, he almost wills the Eagles to win games. Bell finds ways to score in crucial times and doesn't get too spent defensively. He can hit the deep 3, get to the line by drawing the foul or convert a second- or third-shot rebound into a layup. Bell was a money player all year and that shouldn't change during the tournament. Teddy Dupay, Florida: Brett Nelson gets all the pub but Dupay is the clutch player for the Gators. Brent Wright's injury puts even more pressure on the guards. Wright is out for the NCAA Tournament and Dupay will have to come up with even more big-time shots. He can do it, especially with all the attention on Nelson as the first option. Dupay will play hurt and gives the Gators a dimension that makes them extremely tough to defend. Five teams that helped their seeding
Iowa: The Big Ten tournament title got the Hawkeyes a seven seed. Lose in the first round to Ohio State and the Hawkeyes could have been an 11 instead of Xavier. Indiana: Getting to the Big Ten tournament title game got the Hoosiers a No. 4 seed. Lose any earlier and Indiana might have been a 5, 6 or even a 7. Kentucky: The Wildcats got their No. 2 by winning the SEC tournament title game. Lose any earlier and they get bumped back to a 3 or 4. Oklahoma: Big 12 tournament title game got them a 4. Lose and they would have been a 5 or 6. Ole Miss: The Rebels weren't on a 3 line before the SEC tournament, but a run to the title game pushed them up a spot or two. Five teams that hurt their seeding
Georgetown: Losing in the Big East quarterfinals got the Hoyas into the double-digit range. They could have been single digits with a final appearance. Providence: The Friars gave the committee a reason to drop them to a 10 with their flameout against Syracuse in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament. St. Joseph's: The Atlantic 10 doesn't get much love but losing to UMass in the semifinals obviously hurt the Hawks' seeding and put them in the tough 8-9 game. Xavier: The Musketeers followed that by getting an 11 seed when they lost a round earlier to George Washington. North Carolina: The Tar Heels would have been a No. 1 seed with a win over Duke. Lose and they were dropped to a No. 2. Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.
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