Back in 1988, Kirk Gibson authored one of the most memorable postseason moments in baseball history. After injuring both his left hamstring and his right knee in the NLCS against the Mets, Gibson, who ended up being the National League MVP that season, didn't start Game 1 of the World Series. But in the ninth inning, with two outs and a man on and his Dodgers trailing 4-3 to the A's, Gibson hobbled to the plate as a pinch hitter. Then, in what would be his only at-bat of the entire series, he proceeded to do this. (If you have 10 minutes, do yourself a favor, and watch the entire clip. If not, this one will suffice.)
Goose. Bumps.
Almost 30 years later, Bryce Harper could be poised to go all Gibby -- and on the Dodgers no less. In mid-August, Harper suffered a gruesome-looking knee injury that looked like it had ACL written all over it. According to the Nationals, however, there was no structural damage, and it was merely a bone bruise. Still, the boo-boo was bad enough GM Mike Rizzo said at the time, "The bone bruise is something of significance. We're going to treat him cautiously. We're optimistic that he should be back by the end of the year. We have no timeline."
Last week, reports surfaced that Harper also suffered a calf strain.
Regardless of the specifics of the injury, the bottom line is that Harper doesn't appear anywhere close to returning to the field, and missing the remainder of the regular season seems like a distinct possibility for him, especially given Washington already has the NL East sewn up. If that happens, who knows what the postseason holds for Harper?
What we do know is this: Like Gibson, Harper is a hirsute outfielder who bats left-handed. Like Gibson, Harper was putting up MVP numbers and is the heart and soul of his team. Like Gibson, Harper has a flair for the dramatic and a knack for coming up big when it counts. Most importantly, like Gibson, Harper might be less than whole come playoff time, which would be less than ideal for the Nationals.
Of course, Harper isn't the only big name whose health, or lack thereof, could dramatically alter the postseason picture. Here's a list of 16 players whose injuries could impact October (ranked in decreasing order of importance):
1. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
At the time Harper went down, he was ranked top five in pretty much every major offensive category and was on the short list for NL MVP. Given that none of the other guys on said short list (i.e. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado) are currently sidelined, it would stand to reason that Harper's injury would hurt his team more than any other injury to any other player.
Prior to losing Harper, the Nationals were scoring 5.4 runs per game, best of any NL team. Since losing the former MVP, they're averaging more than a full run less (4.1). That said, Washington has managed to go 15-9 without Harper, a testament to how deep Dusty Baker's ball club is. That includes cakewalks against the Giants, Padres and Mets, and only three of those games were against a team that entered September in playoff position (Houston). Winning in October without Harper wouldn't be nearly as easy.
2. Andrew Miller, Cleveland Indians
Last fall, Miller turned himself into a household name by appearing in 16 of Cleveland's 15 playoff games (or so it seemed) and baffling hitters pretty much every time out. He tallied 30 strikeouts in 19 innings, won two games, saved another and caught a 6-month-old who fell from the upper deck of Progressive Field with one hand. OK, so maybe I made up that last part. You get the point.
Dude dominated. Dude still dominates. That is, when he's healthy, which he currently isn't. If Miller's recently diagnosed patellofemoral syndrome -- which has limited him to just two appearances since Aug. 1 -- prevents him from pitching in October or prevents him from pitching the way he's capable of, it's a game-changer for the Indians -- and not in a good way.
3. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
The only reason Kershaw isn't ranked higher here is because technically, he isn't on the shelf anymore. But the nature of his injury -- can I get an "Amen!" from anyone who has ever dealt with back problems -- combined with the fact that he's, well, Clayton Freaking Kershaw lands him on the list anyway. Based on what transpired last season, when the three-time Cy Young winner missed more than two months with back issues then came back in September bringing all kinds of filth with him (1.29 ERA in his final five starts), there's no reason to believe Kershaw will be unavailable in October. If he's not available, that might be enough to make the Nationals the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series.
4. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
Like Kershaw, Pedroia is no longer on the DL -- unless by "DL," you mean "Doubt Lingers." The former MVP hit the disabled list at the beginning of August with left knee inflammation, returned a week later and lasted all of four days before the same knee landed him right back on the DL.
Interestingly, the Sox are 29-21 (.580) this season without the 34-year old second baseman, who also missed time earlier in the year with a sprained wrist. That's better than their 49-40 mark (.551) with him. Not to mention, trade acquisition Eduardo Nunez had been nails in Pedroia's absence (.859 OPS with Boston). Still, Pedroia -- who has played in 47 postseason games during his career -- is the team's unquestioned leader.
5. Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros
If not for the Justin Verlander trade, McCullers would've been a little higher on this list. Even with Verlander, Houston still needs LM2 like arroz needs frijoles. Before McCullers hit the DL on July 31 (back), the Astros were 68-36 and led the American League with a 3.97 starter ERA.
Without the 23-year-old righty, they're just 17-17, and the rotation's ERA is more than a half-run higher (4.62). That is including the return of ace Dallas Keuchel, who came back a couple days before McCullers went down. Given Keuchel's struggles (a 4.86 ERA in his past eight starts), the Astros' chances of advancing take a big hit if McCullers isn't 100 percent -- even with Verlander.
6. Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs
I've been dealing with plantar fasciitis for the past couple years now -- that's right, years -- and it sucks. Like an villain in a B-horror flick, it never goes away. So the fact Russell aggravated his plantar fasciitis on a rehab assignment last week and is expected to be out until at least Rosh Hashanah (or the autumnal equinox, whichever you choose to celebrate) isn't surprising in the least.
The Baby Bears have a bevy of bats to go around, but they'll miss Russell in the field, where he has saved 33 runs since the beginning of the 2016 season, more than any shortstop not named Andrelton. With Russell at short and Javy Baez at second, the Cubs are absolutely airtight up the middle. If Russell misses time in the playoffs, it'd be Baez at short and Ian Happ/Ben Zobrist at second, which is still pretty good. But pretty good might not get it done against the Nationals.
7. Chris Owings, Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona's starting shortstop, who fractured his middle finger on a bunt attempt in late July, is eligible to come off the 60-day DL during the final weekend of the regular season. But that might or might not happen.
"We haven't even gotten to the phase of the rehab yet where we have a good handle on how quickly or slowly it's going to progress," GM Mike Hazen told MLB.com recently.
That wouldn't be good news in any event, but it's especially not good news given Nick Ahmed's run of bad luck. The D-backs' backup shortstop fractured his right hand on June 27 after being hit by a pitch. Then on Aug. 28, the day he was eligible to return from the disabled list, he suffered a broken wrist on another HBP. As if that weren't enough, stopgap Ketel Marte tweaked his groin last week. At this rate, we're liable to see do-everything first baseman Paul Goldschmidt at shortstop come October.
8. Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
Sano has missed a couple weeks since fouling a ball off his shin, and at this point, it's unclear when he'll return. It's also unclear whether the Twins will make the playoffs. Given Cleveland's recently-developed allergy to losing, it's wild card or bust for Minnesota. If the Twins are able to sneak in, they'll need all hands on deck to make it to the ALDS. Even though manager Paul Molitor has the luxury of plugging in super-utility guy Eduardo Escobar at the hot corner while Sano is out, he'd obviously rather have the big fella -- who, despite missing time, entered September leading the Twins with 28 homers and 77 RBIs -- back when October rolls around.
9. Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
In 2014 and 2015, only four American League pitchers won more games than Richards, who went a combined 28-16 with a 3.18 ERA. But in 2016, he suffered a torn elbow ligament in May that ended his season. After electing not to undergo Tommy John surgery, he made just one start this season before a strained biceps sidelined him.
If the Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips trades get the Halos over the hump and into the wild-card game, skipper Mike Scioscia would love to give the ball to Richards, who looks like he's taking the fast track back to the bigs in an effort to help the Angels' anemic rotation -- whether he's ready or not. On Tuesday, despite throwing just 40 pitches in his only rehab start, the 29-year old righty returned to The Show, tossing 52 pitches over 3 1/3 innings of one-run ball against Oakland. If it works and Richards holds up, great. If not, who gets the ball Oct. 3 is anybody's guess.
10. James Paxton, Seattle Mariners
At this point, it doesn't look like the Mariners will make the postseason. If they do, and if Paxton is healthy and able to take the hill, it'd be hard to bet against them in the wild-card game. Since the 2016 All-Star break, the 28-year-old southpaw ranks fifth among AL starters (minimum 10 starts) in ERA (3.14), fourth in WHIP (1.09) and 14th in strikeouts per nine innings (9.8). If Paxton, who has been out since suffering a strained pectoral on Aug. 10, can't get whole, Scott Servais better hope fellow DL resident Felix Hernandez (shoulder) can.
11. David Price, Boston Red Sox
Price hasn't been healthy this year. And when he has been healthy, he hasn't been great, working to a 3.82 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 11 starts. Still, he's David Price, and a playoff rotation of Sale/Price/Pomeranz/Rodriguez sounds a whole lot better than Sale/Pomeranz/Rodriguez/Fister.
Sure, Price's 5.54 career ERA in the postseason doesn't instill fear in anyone (except maybe Boston fans), but when you're paying a guy $31 million a year to throw the ball, when October rolls around, you want him on that mound. You need him on that mound.
12. Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs
Chicago hasn't skipped a beat without its starting backstop, going 14-6 to finish August after losing Contreras to a hamstring strain. Backup Alex Avila, acquired from the Detroit at the trade deadline, has filled in admirably, posting an .821 OPS since his battery buddy got hurt.
But make no mistake: The Cubs are a much more dangerous team when Contreras is in there. Despite missing the past three-and-a-half weeks, the 25-year-old Venezuelan leads all NL catchers with 21 bombs and is slashing .274/.342/.519 on the season. Contreras is expected back in plenty of time for the postseason, but hammies have a way of sticking around.
13. Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians
When Cleveland put Brantley on the disabled list back in early August with a sprained ankle, it seemed like one of those benign jobs that if the old 15-day DL rule were still in effect, Terry Francona might not have even bothered. But with the change to the 10-day DL, why the heck not? "It could very well be a DL," Francona told reporters, "but I think they'd like to have a day to see if it gets stiff or gets swollen. It's considered mild." Nearly four weeks later, the 30-year-old outfielder, who finished third in the 2014 MVP voting and was an All-Star this season, still isn't back and hasn't even begun a rehab assignment. The good news for Cleveland is that Brantley's replacement in left field, Austin Jackson, has been hitting more like Shoeless Joe Jackson.
14. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
See also: Richards, Garrett; Paxton, James. If K.C. cracks the postseason (admittedly an oversized if), Duffy's the guy they'd want on the hill in a one-game winner-take-all. Yes, All-Star Jason Vargas had a strong start to the season and leads the club in wins, but he has aggressively regressed to the mean, posting an ERA north of seven since the All-Star break.
Meanwhile Duffy, the 28-year-old southpaw who is undoubtedly the Royals' ace, leads the team in both ERA and WHIP. Unfortunately, he's currently on the DL with a pronator strain. Given that Duffy's a Tommy John survivor, there's certainly cause for concern. That, and he was recently cited for DUI, further complicating matters.
15. Justin Bour, Miami Marlins
That Miami has been able to make a move in the wild-card race without Bour's power bat in the lineup speaks to the otherworldly production Giancarlo Stanton has given the team. Before Bour suffered his oblique injury on July 24, Fish first basemen had posted a .908 OPS that was the sixth-best in the baseball.
With Tomas Telis and Tyler Moore filling in at first (or trying to) the past six weeks, that number has dropped to .675, the worst in baseball. Bour is slated to begin a rehab assignment any day, so in theory he should be back on the field when the postseason starts. That is, if the Marlins are still on the field.
16. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
Statistically, the Rangers haven't missed Beltre as much as you'd think. In the 57 games they've been without the future Hall of Famer, they're a game over .500 (29-28). In the 80 games they've had him, they're right at .500 (40-40). Still, the thought of Texas competing in the postseason without the beloved Beltre, who is arguably as central to his team as any player who hasn't spent his entire career with one franchise, is enough to bring tears to your eyes. It's possible the 38-year-old slugger, who is expected to miss four weeks after suffering a strained hamstring on Thursday, could make it back just in the nick of time if the Rangers somehow pull a wild card. If that happens, it wouldn't surprise anyone to see Beltre pull a Kirk Gibson.