MLB teams
Tim Kurkjian, ESPN Senior Writer 7y

AL wild-card questions: Blue Jays must contain Orioles' offense

MLB, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays

It's always fun and entertaining when two teams that have played 19 times during the regular season and have had a combustible relationship for years meet in a winner-take-all game to start the postseason.

The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays arrived at this American League wild-card game in distinctly different ways. In spring training, most thought Toronto would win the American League East, and even more thought the Orioles had little or no chance to make the playoffs. The end result: Both teams clinched a wild card on the final day of the season.

Here are five questions.

Who gets the edge in starting pitching?

The Blue Jays have options; over the past 20 games, they have a 2.04 starter's ERA and a .197 batting average against (both tops in the major leagues in that time span). Their best pitcher, Aaron Sanchez (the AL ERA champion at 3.00), started Sunday; their 20-game winner, J.A. Happ, started Saturday; and Marco Estrada, who has had success against the Orioles this year, would have had to go on three days' rest. They could have chosen Francisco Liriano, who threw 6⅓ scoreless innings with one walk and 10 strikeouts against the Orioles in his last start. But they chose to go with Marcus Stroman, who pitched in the postseason last year, is fully rested and brings tremendous energy to the mound. But he had a 7.04 ERA in 23 innings against the Orioles this season.

For the Orioles, their hottest pitcher has been Ubaldo Jimenez, who was in danger of being released midseason but has a 2.45 ERA in his past seven starts. And in his most recent start, he threw 6⅓ scoreless innings in Toronto. But the Orioles will start Chris Tillman on full rest. He is the closest thing they have to an ace, certainly not when it comes to stuff, but with experience and track record. He went 16-6 this year but had a 4.45 ERA the second half of the season, in part because he had a shoulder issue. That doesn't appear to be an issue now.

Who has the advantage in the bullpen?

The Orioles' Zach Britton has more than an outside chance to win the AL Cy Young Award. He finished the season with an 0.54 ERA, saved 47 games in 47 tries and is, according to the Red Sox's David Ortiz, "impossible to hit.'' That power sinker, or whatever we call it, has emerged as the pitch most difficult to center, and he gives the Orioles something the Jays -- and most teams -- don't have: certainty in the ninth inning. Plus, Britton is surrounded by quality arms, including Mychal Givens, Brad Brach, Donnie Hart and Darren O'Day.

Toronto's pen is very good, but the uncertainty of setup man Joaquin Benoit's status (injured running to a brawl against the Yankees) might mean even more work for 21-year-old closer Roberto Osuna. His 56 career saves are the most ever by a pitcher before age 22, and his stuff is sensational, but he stumbled a few times down the stretch. Yet when the Blue Jays needed him most, he pitched two scoreless innings on Saturday in Boston, and then saved the wild-card clincher Sunday by protecting a one-run lead.

What do we make of Toronto's offense?

The Jays, who are supposed to be a really good offensive team, finished last in the major leagues in runs per game (3.7) in September and October. That is not explainable, except for the fact that this team usually goes as third baseman Josh Donaldson goes; he went 20-for-90 with 25 strikeouts and seven RBIs after August. The Jays became only the third team ever to make it to the postseason after being last in the majors in runs per game in September and October (the 2012 Reds and 1974 A's were the others). Despite the Jays' struggles, they seem capable of scoring 10 on any given night. And to add to that, this could be the final game in a Blue Jays uniform for Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, who tied with Ortiz for the AL lead in RBIs this season. Gone without a sound, or pounding their way to the next round?

Can the Orioles' offense be contained?

The Orioles hit 253 home runs this season, easily the most in the major leagues, and the fifth-highest total in history. In the wild-card era (1995-on), the 2009 Yankees are the only team to lead the majors in home runs and go to the World Series. In the division era (1969-on), add the 1976 Reds, the 1983 Orioles and the 1984 Tigers to that list. The Orioles don't manufacture runs; they don't run; they strike out a lot; and they are a classic all-or-nothing team offensively. But they are extremely dangerous 1-9 in the order. The Orioles have, however, sacrificed some offense by using Michael Bourn in right field recently and using Mark Trumbo as the DH. It has greatly improved their defense, and Bourn has gotten some big hits.

How much does home field help the Blue Jays?

Home-field advantage in baseball is important, but not like it is in other sports. Still, the Blue Jays are 46-35 at home this season, and the Orioles were 50-31 at Camden Yards in Baltimore. The Rogers Centre has become a very difficult place to play for visiting teams; it has become one of the wildest venues in the game. But the Orioles have been so resilient, bouncing back from all sorts of adversity. Baltimore has lost six of 10 in Toronto this year, but the series has been tight -- the Jays won 10 of 19 and there were seven one-run games. Look for the same here.

Blue Jays win.

^ Back to Top ^