The next three weeks are going to be wild.
Five of ESPN.com's intrepid MLB beat writers have teams battling it out for wild-card berths as the season hits mid-September: Eddie Matz's Baltimore Orioles, Andrew Marchand's New York Yankees, Katie Strang's Detroit Tigers, Adam Rubin's New York Mets and Mark Saxon's St. Louis Cardinals. (Since they're currently leading their respective divisions, we let Scott Lauber's Boston Red Sox and Doug Padilla's Los Angeles Dodgers off the hook -- for now.)
We asked each of the above scribes to make a case for why their team has a date with a do-or-die playoff game come October. Then we asked them to respond to each of their colleagues' arguments.
What we got was -- well, read for yourself. And keep reading until the end, when a surprise judge joins the fray to make a final ruling.
Orioles
Matz: The Orioles will nab one of the AL wild-card spots because of -- get this -- their starting pitching. No, really. After blowing chunks for most of the season, Baltimore's rotation is rounding into shape when it matters most. Ubaldo Jimenez has magically gone from the worst pitcher in baseball to arguably the team's most dependable starter. Kevin Gausman is currently in midair, making the leap. And Chris Tillman looked good as new in his first start back from the DL, which means that the O's can now banish their most glaring weak link (Wade Miley) to the bullpen. Combine that with a homer-happy lineup that's been scoring in bunches lately and the only reason the Birds wouldn't get a wild-card berth is if they win the division outright.
Marchand: The Orioles look as if they are prime position to win a wild-card spot, but the inconsistency they have played with over the year is something that has to be a concern. Plus, they might be pitching well now, but do you really trust those starters to come up big?
Saxon: Well, something doesn't add up because FiveThirtyEight has them at just 61 percent even to make the playoffs and 4 percent -- behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays -- to win the World Series. Somebody should put back on his designer black frames and remove the rose-colored glasses.
Strang: Not sure I see the Orioles sustaining this level of offensive production, which, admittedly, has been absolutely wild. You'd think that at some point, even a lineup as talented as theirs has to cool off. As for the pitching staff, suffice it to say I don't see the triumphant Jimenez comeback story ending the same way Eddie might envision it. And Tillman, though very impressive in his last start against the Tigers, is not out of the woods yet with that shoulder issue. That has to be an area of concern for Baltimore moving forward.
Rubin: The Orioles have several potentially fatal flaws. Among them: streaky hitters, an all-or-nothing offense and a fried bullpen. Since the All-Star break, Baltimore's 4.50 ERA is second-to-last in the American League, ahead of only the lowly Twins (5.43).
Yankees
Marchand: For those who think the Yankees will take the wild card, the logic is simple -- they are playing as well as anyone in baseball right now. Despite the fact they have a brutal schedule, those who believe the Yankees will succeed think that going 13-5 in their final 18 games will be no problem. I tend to doubt the Yankees can get to the 89 or 90 wins it will take to win a wild card, but if they go into their final three games against the Orioles with a chance to make the playoffs, that will be a pretty significant accomplishment in itself.
Matz: If Marchand himself can't even defend the team he covers ("I tend to doubt the Yankees ..."), then there's no need for me to pile on. My work here is done.
Saxon: Remind me not to hire you if I'm looking for someone to sell my house. "Those who believe?" You were supposed to believe, Andrew. That was the assignment! Since you don't, I don't either.
Strang: I imagine the sort of success the Yankees have had since selling off assets at the trade deadline isn't something anyone would have predicted, but eventually the joyride must end. Youth and inexperience will leave the Yanks exposed as the playoff race heats up, with a slew of games against divisional opponents also desperate to nail down a playoff spot.
Rubin: Gary Sanchez might be a nice story, but the Yankees simply do not have the pitching horses to get to the 89 to 90 wins it will take to earn a wild-card spot in the American League this year. Furthermore, while playing the teams ahead of them in the standings in a simple sense might seem like an opportunity, it realistically means the Yankees have too steep an uphill battle.
Tigers
Strang: After missing the playoffs last year for the first time since 2010, the Detroit Tigers appear primed to secure a postseason berth in 2016 because their key offensive contributors are swinging the bats well at precisely the right time. Look at the club's big boppers -- Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton, who are all crushing the ball in September. Factor in that second baseman Ian Kinsler is also scorching hot this month (.314), and his fellow infielder Nick Castellanos is aiming to return within the next week, and the Tigers have one of the most potent lineups in baseball. Beyond that, the Tigers are in the midst of 17 consecutive games against American League Central teams, providing them ample opportunity to make up ground against divisional opponents.
Marchand: If the Tigers don't make the playoffs, it is all on them. While the majority of the wild-card contenders are in the AL East beating each other up, the Tigers only have to just worry about becoming complacent as they face a much easier road.
Matz: When it comes the wild card, gaining ground on divisional opponents matters not. What does matter is winning, and given that seven of those 17 AL Central games are against an Indians squad that's owned Detroit this year (11-1), well -- good luck with that.
Saxon: You lost me when you started spouting facts and evidence. I'm just not a big fan of aging, slugging teams with no athleticism and iffy relief pitching in October.
Rubin: The Tigers' fatal flaw will be their rotation. In a seven-start stretch that also included an absence for a lat issue, Jordan Zimmermann has a 4.94 ERA. Beyond that, three kids in the rotation are unproven.
Mets
Rubin: Forget the fact that the Mets are among the hottest teams in baseball, having won 16 of 21 games entering the week. The Mets will reach the postseason as a wild-card entrant primarily because of their soft schedule the remainder of the season. After completing a series on Wednesday against the Nationals, the Mets do not play another game against a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Cardinals and Giants -- the competitors for the NL's two wild-card spots -- have to play each other four times beginning Thursday. The Cardinals also have two series remaining against the Cubs, while the Giants have two series remaining against the Dodgers.
Marchand: The biggest reason not to believe in the Mets is because they are the Mets. Their tortured history is replete with epic failures in the face of victories. Could one more be on the horizon?
Matz: As my mother will tell you, I'm a good boy who follows directions, and my marching orders here were to shoot a hole in every one of these theories (except mine, of course). To do that, I'm calling on my experience with logic puzzles back in Mrs. Harris' fifth-grade math class. If the Mets and Cardinals aren't wild cards (which, per my instructions, they can't be), then the wild cards must be the second-place NL West team (Giants or Dodgers), and the ... Marlins?
Saxon: When you put it that way, it's kind of hard to argue. I guess I'll just go with, "It's the Mets, Adam," and leave it at that.
Strang: Heading into spring training, I picked the Mets to win it all this year, and a big reason was their stable of impressive young pitchers. Fast-forward six months and the staff looks, well, quite a bit different. No Matt Harvey. No Jacob deGrom. No Steven Matz. That certainly hasn't seemed to hurt the Mets lately, but even with a crazy favorable schedule to finish out the year, one has to wonder whether the sum of all the injuries -- and not just those to the pitching staff -- eventually takes its toll.
Cardinals
Saxon: If you believe the moral of the old fable "The Tortoise and the Hare," then you buy that the Cardinals will reach the NL wild-card game. While the other two contenders, the Mets and Giants, have had wild swings of fortune this season, the Cardinals have just kept plodding along. Their longest losing streak this season is five games. Their longest winning streak is five games. They came one right after the other in mid-June. So all they have to do is continue their steady-as-it-goes approach and one of the other two contenders figures to beat itself. The other thing they have going for them: Starting Thursday, the best road team in baseball has 10 of its final 17 games away from Busch Stadium. If they get into the postseason, who knows? Maybe they'll finally get hot.
Marchand: This does not feel like a classic Cardinals team. They have been great on the road, but that could be reaching its expiration point.
Matz: See "Matz on Mets."
Strang: The Cards had dropped four of their past six games heading into Tuesday's action, including Monday's loss, in which they mustered just one hit off Cubs' pitcher Kyle Hendricks (who, granted, has been lights-out against pretty much everyone in recent months) and saw Matt Carpenter exit the game with back tightness. More concerning is that St. Louis still has another set against the Cubs before closing out the season with a seven-game homestand. That stretch at home should be a good thing, especially considering their caliber of competition -- except for the fact, as Saxon astutely pointed out, that the Cards have been awful at Busch Stadium this year.
Rubin: We already covered the disparity in schedule strength the remainder of the season to justify why the Mets will reach the postseason over St. Louis. Now let's zero in on the Cardinals' swoon, which is being fueled by inconsistent starting pitching, erratic defense and a glaring lack of setup men. Jaime Garcia produced an 8.06 ERA in a five-start stretch through last Thursday. Meanwhile, Aledmys Diaz has only a .957 fielding percentage, with 16 errors through 93 games at shortstop.
The above -- vs. the rest of the field
"Judge" David Schoenfield: Let's start with the American League, where I'm sentencing Matz to watching the 1988 Orioles highlight tape after he invoked Jimenez as evidence of a strengthening rotation. Sure he's had four good starts in a row. However, it's still Ubaldo Jimenez, and four good starts merely means four bad ones are likely to follow. Also the Orioles are under .500 since July 1, and is that Michael Bourn and Drew Stubbs I'm seeing in their outfield?
As the saying goes, rooting for the Yankees is like rooting for U.S. Steel. This court can't rule in favor of the Yankees, even with this cute little story they have going on with these kids and this no-name pitching staff. You know what's not so cute though? They still have five players making $20 million-plus, if you include the departed Alex Rodriguez. Those five guys make more than 13 entire teams. So enough with this nonsense that the Yankees are some Little Engine That Could. Also, the court fines Marchand to repeated viewings of the bottom of the ninth of Game 7 of the 2001 World Series for his cheap shot against the Mets.
So the judge rules in favor of Strang and the Tigers. The schedule is the key here, with four games left against the Twins, three against the rapidly expiring Royals and three to finish the season against the hapless Braves. Yes, they do have seven games against the Indians and -- hold on, you say they're 1-11 against Cleveland? They lost to the Twins on Tuesday? Maybe we should be thinking of the scorching-hot Mariners here instead?
But because the Mariners never win anything ...
Ruling: Blue Jays and Tigers
Now, over in the NL, I can't believe this race is still going on. I think the Mets just signed Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman for the rotation. How have the Giants and Cardinals not pulled away? Anyway, Rubin has presented irrefutable evidence: The Mets' schedule is softer than the Wilpons' bank account, with only one of their remaining 17 games against a team currently with a winning record.
Saxon's argument for the Cardinals basically boils down to "They're the Cardinals." That's actually a good argument! Did you know cockroaches can survive without food for a month? That's the Cardinals. It's how they've made the playoffs the past five seasons and 12 out of the past 16. It also helps that the Giants have seemingly cracked here in the second half, with Bruce Bochy managing his bullpen like a 12-year-old boy who just ate three dozen doughnuts while downing a supersized Slurpee.
Ruling: Mets and Cardinals