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ESPN Senior Writer- Eddie Matz covers the Washington Nationals and the world of Major League Baseball for ESPN.com. He's been writing for ESPN since 2002, and is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania.
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ESPN Staff Writer- Adam Rubin has covered the Mets since 2003. He's a graduate of Mepham High School on Long Island and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He joined ESPNNewYork after spending 10 years at the New York Daily News.
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On Monday night, the Washington Nationals and New York Mets start a three-game series in Washington, D.C. With nine games separating the NL East rivals in the standings, the division title seems all but out of reach for the Mets. But there's still a lot hanging in the balance -- for both clubs.
Beat writers Eddie Matz and Adam Rubin explain.
Matz: It's always a big deal when the Nationals and Mets throw down. On the surface, given that Washington is nine games up on New York with 19 left to play, the three-game set that kicks off in D.C. on Monday might not seem as supersized as usual. Ah, but it is. Here's what's on the line for the Nationals:
1. Figure out how to survive sans Strasburg. Star Stephen Strasburg (elbow) may or may not be done for the season. If he is, the Nats need to find a replacement for him in the postseason rotation. Max Scherzer and Tanner Roark are no-brainers. After that, it's anybody's guess. Gio Gonzalez has been eh. Joe Ross has been out since early July. Rookies Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and A.J. Cole have been filling in, but none of them has consistently wowed. How the pups perform down the stretch -- including Cole's start against Noah Syndergaard on Tuesday -- could go a long way toward predicting how the Nats net out in October.
2. Prove they can beat good teams. Despite their glossy 85-58 record (second best in the NL), the Nationals are just 15-20 against teams who are in line for playoff berths. Against everyone else, they're 70-38, including 28-5 against division doormats Philly and Atlanta. Whether or not the surging Mets make the postseason remains to be seen, but this much we know: They're the only team Washington faces the rest of the way that's currently above the .500 mark. A series win over New York would help show that the Nats are more than just cupcake killers.
3. Slam the door on the Mets. With three weeks left in the season, there's no earthly way that New York could possibly overtake Washington ... or is there? Given that this is the last series between the two teams, it seems highly unlikely. But let's say, just for the sake of argument, the Nats get swept. Suddenly it's a six-game lead with 16 left to play. Stranger things have happened -- just ask the Mets. Back in 2007, they were seven games up on the Phillies with 17 games remaining and somehow managed to blow it. A couple curly W's in D.C. this week, and Dusty Baker's club should have the division sewn up. If Washington can sweep the series and severely damage its archenemy's wild-card chances in the process, well that wouldn't suck either.
Rubin: The Mets will not catch the Nationals for first place in the National League East. Not with the Mets trailing the Nats by nine games with 19 remaining.
So what is at stake when the teams open their final series of the season on Monday night at Nationals Park?
A ton for the Mets.
The Mets are 2-0 in games started by Rafael Montero in Jacob deGrom's absence, but Montero has walked 10 batters in 9 1/3 innings in those pair of starts. Montero gets the opener in D.C. opposite Mat Latos, and the Mets desperately need Montero to harness his control and give them a shot at a win.
These days, there's little margin for error with three teams vying for two wild-card spots.
"We know we can certainly play with them," manager Terry Collins said. "They've got a little bit of pitching issues right now -- similar to us. We've just got to go in there and play. For us, it's about winning games. I don't care who they're against. We've just got to win games."
As demonstrated by Saturday's extra-inning loss at Atlanta, when Collins didn't pinch run for Wilmer Flores in the eighth and the Mets ultimately lost to temporarily drop out of the second wild-card spot, the Mets have little wiggle room if they hope to return to the postseason.
The Mets enter the showdown against the Nationals only a half-game up over the St. Louis Cardinals for the second wild-card spot. The San Francisco Giants, who lead the wild-card standings, are within striking distance, too.
The good news for the Mets: The schedule heavily favors them the rest of the way. After completing this series in Washington, the Mets do not face another team with a winning record the remainder of the season. The Mets host the Twins (53-90), Braves (55-88) and Phillies (63-80), then complete the season with a trip to Miami (71-72) and Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals and Giants square off in a four-game series beginning Thursday in San Francisco -- building in losses for at least one of the teams. St. Louis also has a pair of series remaining with the NL Central-leading Cubs, while the Giants have a pair of series remaining with the NL West-leading Dodgers.
"I look at the scores every day and I see teams with losing records beating teams that have winning records," Collins cautioned. "It's part of the game. So you've got to go out and play."