Back in 1997, when I first pointed out that no Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 was unraced as a 2-year-old, the information seemed to be a dull nugget of only minor importance and occasional relevance. But the years since then have burnished it so frequently and rigorously that it now seems to have an intimidating sheen.
I only noticed the nugget when Pulpit brought it to my attention. On Jan. 11 of 1997, he won his debut at Gulfstream Park in sensational style, by more than seven lengths. Three weeks later he won an allowance event by nearly seven lengths, and then he won the Fountain of Youth to become one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby, a sudden ascension that since then, it seems, has become something of a pattern for mega talented youngsters that didn't race as juveniles. Materiality has duplicated it this year, or nearly so, substituting the Florida Derby for the Fountain of Youth.
At No. 5, Materiality makes his debut in the Top 10 of the Power Rankings this week. Will he become only the second Kentucky Derby winner not to race as a juvenile? Maybe, but the odds are overwhelmingly against him, as Jon White, the estimable oddsmaker at Santa Anita, has pointed out. The procession of Derby horses that didn't race at 2 is long, proving perhaps that with the right encouragement hope and ambition can quickly take flight. Some have run well. Two years ago, for example, Bodemeister finished second to I'll Have Another and might have won if today's qualifying points system had been in play. He was pushed through a half-mile in 45.39 seconds and three-quarters in 1:09.80 by Trinniberg, an admirable sprinter that nevertheless would not have had a reserved spot among the 20 in the Derby starting gate under the points system. In 2007, Curlin made the fourth start of his career in the Kentucky Derby, as Materiality will this year. And, if anything, Curlin had begun his career with three victories that were even more impressive and dominating than Materiality's. Curlin, after all, won the Arkansas Derby by more than 10 lengths. But he couldn't overcome a rough trip in Kentucky and finished third. In 1994, Strodes Creek rallied to finish second behind Go For Gin in the Derby, and Reinvested loomed boldly after circling horses in 1982, but finished third, behind Gato Del Sol and Laser Light. And Pulpit finished fourth in that strong Derby field of 1997.
For the most part, though, the Derby starters that didn't race as juveniles -- and there have been 50 since 1956, according to White -- have found more frustration than fulfillment in Kentucky, and that includes some superb horses. Like Materiality, Verrazano entered the 2013 Derby unbeaten for trainer Todd Pletcher. Verrazano finished 14th. Dunkirk finished 11th in 2009, Midnight Interlude 16th in 2012, Desert Hero 13th in 1999, Devil His Due 12th in 1992, Corporate Report 9th in 1991, Wavering Monarch 12th in 1982, Forego 4th in 1973 and so it goes, on and on, back to 1882 before there's a winner, and Apollo's victory on an "off" track was one of the biggest upsets of the season.
This year's Kentucky Derby will be run in a blizzard of possibilities. And Materiality will represent one of the most intriguing of those. But the 133 years since Apollo have only magnified the inviolability of the reasons for such horses' failures. The modern Kentucky Derby rewards speed, talent, athleticism, intelligence, stamina, experience and conditioning. Such a complex aggregation of mental and physical abilities can't be developed and honed in a short time or with a few races, except by a great trainer and an extraordinary horse. Could Materiality be such a horse? It's going to be fun finding out.
Mubtaahij also joins the Power Rankings Top 10. He, of course, won the UAE Derby by eight lengths, and his trainer, Michael De Kock, who has enjoyed considerable international success over the years, almost immediately announced plans to arrive early in Kentucky for the Derby.
Three major preps will be run Saturday. Dortmund will be heavily favored to win again and ride an unbeaten streak of six victories into Churchill Downs. In the Santa Anita Derby, he'll face a small but talented group of rivals that's expected to include Prospect Park, Bolo and One Lucky Dane. Carpe Diem is the headliner for the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, where Danzig Moon could also argue for a place in the Derby starting gate. He was mildly sick after he finished fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby, according to his trainer, Mark Casse, and could be capable of much better. Also among those expected for the Blue Grass are Ocho Ocho Ocho, Frammento, Gorgeous Bird and Unrivaled. And with the injury to Far From Over, a small field is likely for the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, where El Kabeir will take on Daredevil and Frosted.
And so the Power Rankings are in for an adjustment next week. For the moment, though, Dortmund has returned to the top, displacing American Pharoah and emphasizing the difficulty of separating the two colts, as well as, perhaps, the fickleness of voters. Dortmund had been No. 1 since the first appearance of this year's Power Rankings; and then after American Pharoah won the Rebel Stakes, he advanced into a tie with his stablemate atop the Power Rankings. But last week, American Pharoah occupied the top spot alone, and now Dortmund returns. It's almost as if the voters are practicing to be stewards.
Top 10 Horses
1. Dortmund
Starts--W-P-S: 5--5-0-0
Trainer: B. Baffert
Derby Points: 70 | ESPN.com Points: 139 | Last Week: 2
This is where they begin separating and distinguishing themselves, in these final nine-furlong preps for the Derby, according to Dortmund's Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert. And he clearly thinks that Dortmund, who might have the longest stride of all these 3-year-olds traveling the road to Kentucky, could separate himself from the field Saturday at Santa Anita. In preparation for the Santa Anita Derby, the undefeated giant of a colt worked three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.60 last Saturday. Starting about five lengths behind Jimbo Fallon, Dortmund made steady progress, caught his stablemate in the stretch with only moderate encouragement and drew clear under jockey Martin Garcia. Beyond the wire, Dortmund galloped out strongly.
1. American Pharoah
Starts--W-P-S: 4--3-0-0
Trainer: B. Baffert
Derby Points: 60 | ESPN.com Points: 135 | Last Week: 1
"After his next race, we'll know more about him," American Pharoah's trainer, Bob Baffert, said about the champion's upcoming engagement on April 11 in the Arkansas Derby. Unlike his stablemate at the top of the Power Ratings, American Pharoah hasn't been, in Baffert's words, "battle-tested." But the colt's talent is unimpeachable; he seems to do everything easily, including winning the Rebel Stakes. So far, his talent and speed have enabled him to dominate rivals. But how will he respond when challenged? He seems to be growing and improving, Baffert said, and the champ's first serious workout since the Rebel victory would support that opinion. On Sunday at Santa Anita, American Pharoah worked five-eighths of a mile in 58.60 seconds and galloped out an additional furlong, according to Santa Anita clockers, in 1:10.80.
3. Carpe Diem
Starts--W-P-S: 4--3-1-0
Trainer: T. Pletcher
Derby Points: 64 | ESPN.com Points: 111 | Last Week: 3
Horses that have experience in large fields tend to perform better in the Kentucky Derby than those that don't. The reason is obvious: With as many as 20 horses starting in the Derby, traffic almost always becomes a factor. And that experience with traffic could serve Carpe Diem well. He defeated 11 when he won the Breeders' Futurity last year. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he ran second, had a large field of 11. Carpe Diem had to deal with some traffic when he defeated seven rivals in the Tampa Bay Derby, and he could again face a fairly large field of rivals in the Blue Grass, where 10 are expected. Of course, it also helps that Carpe Diem is extremely talented. He worked a half-mile in 47.98 seconds Saturday to prepare for the Blue Grass. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, said he's hoping "for a smooth race and another good performance" from Carpe Diem at Keeneland. But a victory isn't necessary for the handsome colt to advance to Churchill Downs. Carpe Diem already "has stamped himself as one of the leaders of the division," Pletcher said.
4. Firing Line
Starts--W-P-S: 5--2-3-0
Trainer: S. Callaghan
Derby Points: 58 | ESPN.com Points: 80 | Last Week: 4
He flashed his considerable talent with his romping victory in the Sunland Derby. The horses behind him -- and they checked in far behind him, more than 14 lengths -- weren't formidable, and he didn't finish strongly, with a final three-eighths in 38.27 seconds, but he won the race with his speed, running his rivals into submission with the opening three-quarters in 1:09.12. With Dortmund, American Pharoah, Materiality, Upstart, Daredevil and Frosted all aimed at Kentucky, the pace in the Derby could be toasty. Where does that leave Firing Line, and can he stretch his speed and talent 1-1/4 miles?
5. Materiality
Starts--W-P-S: 3--3-0-0
Trainer: T. Pletcher
Derby Points: 100 | ESPN.com Points: 100 | Last Week: NR
The Gulfstream Park surface was so taxing, enervating and downright slow that the Florida Derby is rather difficult to evaluate. How slow? Well, Materiality staggered through the final three furlongs in 39.79 seconds, and still he extended his advantage from a half-length to 1-1/2 lengths. With the final time of 1:52.30 for the 1-1/8 miles, this was the slowest Florida Derby since 1955, when Nashua won in 1:53.20 over a sloppy track. Nashua, by the way, finished second as the favorite to Swaps in the Kentucky Derby. For the most recent Florida Derby, the best indicators of the quality of the performances might be the final margins. From Upstart, the runner-up, it was 12 1/2 lengths back to Ami's Flatter in third. But the main question following Materiality to Kentucky regards his experience. Yes, Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby after only three races, but in terms of talent he towered over his rivals. Is that the case with Materiality?
6. International Star
Starts--W-P-S: 9--5-2-0
Trainer: M. Maker
Derby Points: 171 | ESPN.com Points: 58 | Last Week: 8T
He's not physically imposing, he's not flashy but he wins. International Star swept the Fair Grounds' three major stakes for 3-year-olds, and he stepped forward significantly with his victory in the Louisiana Derby, where he ran the second half-mile faster than the first and came home in 36.65 seconds for the final three-eighths of a mile. His winning time was faster than the older horses' in the New Orleans Handicap. The son of Fusaichi Pegasus has a talent for getting a good trip, and if he can work one out in Kentucky he could be a player. His trainer, Mike Maker, said International Star gives him the best chance he has had up to now in the Kentucky Derby. Maker has saddled eight horses in the Derby, with Stately Victor, who ran eighth in 2010, producing the trainer's best finish.
7. Mubtaahij
Starts--W-P-S: 7--4-1-0
Trainer: M. De Kock
Derby Points: 100 | ESPN.com Points: 54 | Last Week: NR
He won the UAE Derby by eight lengths, but will he be able to adapt to Churchill Downs and American racing? He has won four of his five races on a dirt surface, but will he be able transfer that winning form to this country? Most important, would that level of performance even be good enough in Kentucky? The answer to at least one of those questions is probably not. Clear at the wire in Dubai -- and traveling on his wrong lead -- Mubtaahij completed the 1,900 meters of the UAE Derby in 1:58.35, according to Trakus, but that time suggests he wouldn't have been close in the World Cup, where California Chrome finished second. True, it isn't entirely fair to compare a 3-year-old to the 4-year-old who won last year's Derby. But California Chrome is a known quantity, and so he can serve as a benchmark. Some of this season's 3-year-olds are performing at a level right now that suggests they might be able to compete with him. But Mubtaahij isn't among them, not yet anyway.
8. Upstart
Starts--W-P-S: 7--3-3-1
Trainer: R. Violette, Jr.
Derby Points: 76 | ESPN.com Points: 47 | Last Week: 5
So that he could go to Kentucky with his performance-level turning in a positive direction, Upstart needed to return to top form in the Florida Derby. And he did. But it still wasn't good enough, as Materiality ran a jaw-dropper, taking the lead on the backstretch and persevering over a surface so tiring that it made the action seem to unfold in slowmo. Still, Upstart ran very well, and he'll be a player in Kentucky.
9. Prospect Park
Starts--W-P-S: 6--2-2-1
Trainer: C. Sise Jr.
Derby Points: 20 | ESPN.com Points: 35 | Last Week: 6
With the newcomers to the Top 10, Prospect Park drops to No. 9. But this is an improving colt who colt who could become a star over the next few months -- or maybe as early as Saturday. He worked five-eighths of a mile last Saturday in 1:01.20 to prepare for the Santa Anita Derby, where he could be main threat to Dortmund. On Tuesday, Prospect Park arrived at Santa Anita from his home base at San Luis Rey Downs.
10. Far From Over
Starts--W-P-S: 2--2-0-0
Trainer: T. Pletcher
Derby Points: 10 | ESPN.com Points: 33 | Last Week: 10
Far From Over won't race in Wood Memorial, as originally thought, and is off the road to Kentucky. He has a "hairline fracture" of his left foreleg, his trainer, Todd Pletcher, explained Tuesday. Describing the injury as relatively minor, Pletcher said the Withers Stakes winner is "comfortable" and expected to make a complete recovery. He could return to competition in the fall.
Also receiving votes: El Kabeir (28), Far Right (13), Bolo (11), War Story (3), Dubai Sky (2), Itsaknockout (1).
To see how our experts voted, please click here.