Bill Finley 9y

Handicapping the weekend

Horse Racing

We're at the point where things are getting serious. Eighteen 3-year-olds, all of them with an eye on the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby, will vie in two rich prep races Saturday. The Louisiana Derby kicks things off at 6:24 (Eastern) and some 24 minutes later they'll leave the gate at the Florida Derby. This is the point where a horse cannot make a mistake. A bad race means you don't belong in the Kentucky Derby, no matter how many points you might have. A good race means you do.

Here's our look at the day's two 3-year-old major races and the Dubai World Cup:

The Louisiana Derby

WAR STORY may not have won the Risen Star, but he was the best horse on the racetrack that day. He broke a couple of lengths behind the field and immediately lost position, then, when launching his move he had to shift out to the middle of the track and make a four wide move. Despite all that, he lost by just a length to INTERNATIONAL STAR. The latter had a dream trip, sneaking through a hole on the rail and saving a significant amount of ground on the turn. Though International Star has beaten War Story two straight, I'm convinced War Story is the better horses. Odd to see Desormeaux jump off War Story for MR. Z but it's a blessing in disguise as I have far more faith in his new rider, Robby Albarado. Mr. Z must be a frustrating horse to train. He has done nothing more than break his maiden but he is right there every time and has been on the board in four straight stakes. Not sure I like Lukas taking the blinkers off as the horse seemed to improve when they went on. STANFORD will get play because he is part of the Pletcher factory but his last race isn't as good as it looks. On a speed-favoring track in the Islamorada Stakes at Gulfstream stablemate Materiality blew right past him. He looks like a horse with distance limitations. KEEN ICE can close for a piece, especially if the pace is fast, which it looks like it might be.
Picks: 6-2-9

The Florida Derby

This has become the single most important prep run east of California and this year is no exception as the No. 1 ranked contender out of this region will be crowned come Saturday afternoon. MATERIALITY will likely get a lot of play because of his connections (Pletcher-Velazquez) and his lofty 104 Beyer number last out. But this still appears to be a race between the Big Two in South Florida, ITSAKNOCKOUT and UPSTART. Upstart remains the one to beat despite what happened in the Fountain of Youth. I had no problem with the stewards taking him down because he really did bother Itsaknockout, but he still looked like the better horse on that day. And consider that trainer Rick Violette Jr. said beforehand that he didn't tighten the screws much for that race because he wanted to save something for the Kentucky and Florida Derbies. Upstart doesn't need to improve to win this race, yet probably will. Itsaknockout clearly stepped up in the Fountain of Youth and proved that he's something more than just a good allowance horse. But is he better than Upstart? At least for now the answer is probably not. Materiality has to show me something more before I can put him at the head of the list in a field like this. Granted, he ran a big race in the Islamorada, but there were only two serious horses in that race, he and his stablemate Stanford. This is a colossal jump up in class and I'm not sure he's ready for it yet. AMI'S FLATTER improved with blinkers to run second in the Tampa Bay Derby and got beat by a good one in Carpe Diem. Can certainly sneak into the trifecta or even the exacta.
Picks: 9-4-7

The Dubai World Cup

From an American prospective it's the best Dubai World Cup in a long time as it has attracted two major U.S. stars in LEA and CALIFORNIA CHROME, neither of whom might have made the trip if the races were still run on a synthetic surface. The two are heavily favored by the foreign bookmakers. Betfair has California Chrome at 7-4 and Lea at 7-2. Another U.S. invader in here is CANDY BOY, though he's now trained by a foreign stable. While it's hard to root against California Chrome, Lea is the pick. Not only will he be the longer price of the two, but he's consistently been the faster horse of the two based on the figures and keep in mind that California Chrome has not won a dirt race since the Preakness. HOKKO TARUMAE has earned $8.5 million in Japan and won three straight, including twoGrade 1's. Never easy to gauge the Japanese form but the horse clearly has some ability.
Picks: 5-9-2

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