Every Kentucky Derby is memorable and special. Even if you've stood there 30 or 40 times flushed with feeling as "My Old Kentucky Home" reverberates throughout the Churchill Downs grandstand, you never think the moment is anything but extraordinary and you never cease to be amazed that these few minutes can contain so many dreams, aspirations and hopes.
I've covered Major League Baseball games, NBA games, bowl games, Super Bowl folderol, a Stanley Cup matchup, championship fights and golf tournaments. I've written columns on Cowboys, Rangers, Stars, Tigers and Bears. I've written features on Emmitt Smith, Steve Nash, Brittney Griner and Shaquille O'Neal. And I've never experienced anything that can compare to a Kentucky Derby.
Any Kentucky Derby is more exhilarating than just about anything else. That said, a few Derbies distinctively stand out, like impasto paintings, with their thick and vivid strokes of quality and excitement. And this year's could be just such a Derby.
As Firing Line cruised through the stretch last Sunday in New Mexico, on his way to winning by more then 14 lengths, this thought suddenly crystallized: Here's another one stepping forward, another gifted member of what's starting to look like an unusually deep and talented group of 3-year-olds pointed in the direction of Kentucky. This 141st Derby is going to be exceptional.
Yes, knock on wood, rub a lucky horseshoe and suck on a nut from the Rudraksh tree. In five weeks it's Derby time, and much can happen in the interim. A dream can disintegrate in an instant, with a misstep. But if this group holds together and stays intact, the field for the upcoming Kentucky Derby could be the strongest since 2007.
Remember that class? Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin led the way in the Derby, but the field also included Circular Quay, Any Given Saturday, Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy. Two weeks later, Curlin won the Preakness, the first gem in a career that included victories in the Breeders' Cup Classic and the Dubai World Cup and consecutive titles as Horse of the Year.
Could this season's 3-year-olds be that talented? Maybe. But it's impossible to evaluate a class until the end of the season, if not later, and even an outstanding group doesn't guarantee an outstanding Triple Crown. A year ago at this time, the 3-year-olds were struggling and mostly failing to excite many observers, with California Chrome the conspicuous exception in what seemed an ordinary class. As it turned out, though, they were an uncommonly strong group. Injuries forced Shared Belief, Constitution and Honor Code to miss the Triple Crown; Tonalist and Bayern didn't mature quickly enough to make roseate runs. The group's talent didn't bloom until the fall; the first six horses to cross the finish line in the Breeders' Cup Classic were all 3-year-olds.
So far, unlike last year's class in the run-up to the Derby, this year's group has not been hit hard -- yes, knock a second time on wood, kiss a scarab beetle and invite butterflies into the garden -- by injury.
Dortmund, Firing Line and Upstart already have performed at a level that would have been good enough to win a few Derbies, including last year's. Having had only one race this season, American Pharoah and Carpe Diem seem poised to reach that level soon. And several others appear to be on the march, advancing forward and upward.
Three major stakes on Saturday, rife as they are with qualifying points, will no doubt produce a few Kentucky Derby starters and possibly another reason for heightened expectations. The UAE Derby has hardly been a launching pad for Triple Crown success, but that could soon change. My Johnny Be Good, an American invader who ran eighth in the Tampa Bay Derby, could provide some measure of the foreign talent when he takes on Maftool, a son of Hard Spun, and Mubtaahij, a son of Dubawi, in Dubai. Both are nominated to the Triple Crown.
The Florida Derby brings together Upstart and Itsaknockout for a rematch. Upstart, of course, finished first but was disqualified in the Fountain of Youth, where Itsaknockout was declared the winner. It was a strange race over a Gulfstream Park surface that was uncharacteristically slow and tiring. All the Fountain of Youth horses seemed to stagger through the stretch, and some of the efforts, especially Frosted's, were better than they might have seemed. Itsaknockout's effort was encouraging because he sustained a long drive on a dull track; it represented significant improvement. But the son of Lemon Drop Kid will need to continue moving forward if he's to be a major player in Kentucky. The disqualification aside, Upstart regressed in the Fountain of Youth, and he'll need to return to his best form if he's to go to Kentucky as a serious contender for the roses.
His trainer, Richard Violette, Jr., explained that he tapped the brakes in Upstart's training after the colt won the Holy Bull Stakes so emphatically to begin the season. But the time for casual approaches has passed, and speaking of Upstart, Violette said he "let him rip"
in a recent workout to prepare for the Florida Derby. "He's ready to roll."
But the most intriguing horse racing Saturday at Gulfstream Park could be Materiality, who's making only the third start of his career. Materiality won his debut in January. And three weeks ago, he won the Islamorada Handicap by nearly six lengths in a fast clocking for the day.
He was able to stalk a moderate pace in the Islamorada, and he'll probably have to come from farther back Saturday. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, said he's concerned about the quick turnaround for the inexperienced colt. And in terms of success at Churchill Downs on May 2, the lightly raced son of Afleet Alex will be running uphill against a steep historical trend: No Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 was unraced as a juvenile. But, Pletcher pointed out, Materiality is "a big, strong colt and he has trained very well since" the Islamorada.
In New Orleans, in the Louisiana Derby, International Star will go for a sweep of the Fair Grounds' Triple Crown perps. He won the LeComte Stakes in January and the Risen Star Stakes last month, with War Story finishing second in both. Mr. Z and Stanford are expected to join what has been to this point a two-horse show.
If anybody from the Louisiana Derby puts himself in the vanguard traveling to Kentucky, it'll be either Mr Z or War Story. Mr. Z has finished third in both his races this year. But he looked like a clear winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes before ducking out in mid-stretch at Oaklawn Park. And in the Southwest Stakes, he faltered on a sloppy and tiring surface after leading to deep stretch. (Although the half-mile split was 47.90 seconds, the track was so slow that the Southwest was actually one of the fastest-paced races of the run-up-to-the-Derby season.) He'll race without blinkers Saturday, according to Hall of Fame trainer, D. Wayne Lukas.
And War Story intrigues because he's always teasing with promises of something better for the future. For example, in the Risen Star, where International Star had a perfect trip, getting through along the rail, War Story rolled out of the gate as if rolling out of bed after a raucous party in the French Quarter the night before, and then he had to swing five-to-six wide when launching his rally. Still, he lost by only a length.
"I think a strong case can be made that he ran the best race that day," said his trainer, Tom Amoss, a New Orleans native who for much of his life has longed for a victory in this race. He explained that while other kids were dreaming of throwing the winning pass in the Super Bowl he dreamed of winning the Louisiana Derby.
And that dream could come true if War Story renounces his bad habits. With that objective in mind, Amoss explained that War Story's stall in the starting gate will be padded Saturday. The gelding tends to shuffle around nervously in the gate, from side to side, and that might explain, at least in part, why he habitually rolls out of there so leisurely. But the padding will restrict his movement, leaving him just one direction to go. And that's forward, with, it's hoped, some haste.
And if he moves forward significantly, he'll put himself in the Kentucky Derby. These are feverish times, and the 3-year-olds to this point look outstanding, which could mean the Derby, already beginning to take shape, might be, just maybe, with a little luck, the start of an exceptional Triple Crown season -- yes, it might be wise to knock a third time on wood, wear a witch's bangle and befriend a leprechaun at the racetrack.