The first round of last year's NBA playoffs featured four upsets in terms of seeding, the most in any season since the league adopted its current 16-team format in 1984. Which teams have the best chance of following in their footsteps this year?

Historically, last season was an outlier. There were no first-round upsets in terms of seeding in 2022, and just two total from 2019 to 2022. However, some of the same factors that produced a topsy-turvy opening round a year ago could be in play again.

With compact standings in the East aside from the top-seeded Boston Celtics, all three other first-round matchups will feature teams separated by no more than three games during the regular season. Only the West's 4-5 matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and LA Clippers meets that standard, but the No. 6 seed Phoenix Suns are actually favored over the No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves by virtue of their star talent and playoff experience.

My model of upset chances is based on three factors that have been predictive historically: regular-season performance (as measured by net rating), roster quality (as based on SCHOENE projections and my prediction for first-round playing time) and pre-playoffs title odds at ESPN BET. Let's look at this year's upset probabilities through that prism.