Posted by Jacob Nitzberg, ESPN Stats & Information
When looking at Uruguay and the Netherlands, a major difference is their average possession time. Uruguay has averaged 46.2 percent possession in its run to the semifinals, lowest among the quarterfinalists and nearly 5 percent lower than any of the other semifinalists, while the Netherlands has averaged 54.2 percent possession. This means both teams will likely continue with their preferred style of play. The Uruguayans seem content to allow the opposition to have the ball; their 41 percent possession in their win over Mexico was the second-lowest this tournament for a victorious side, but the Netherlands must be able to take advantage of this and get past a tough Uruguayan defense.
How tough is the Uruguayan defense? For starters, Uruguay has allowed just two goals, tied for the fewest of the remaining sides (with Spain and Germany) and the second-fewest of any team to advance from group play. According to Opta Sports Data, Uruguay has made 171 clearances, 33 more than any other side, and its average of 34.2 clearances per match is the best in the tournament. Along those lines, the Uruguayans have intercepted 131 passes, 24 more than any other team, and the 26.2 per match figure is the best in the tournament.
It doesn't stop there. Uruguay also leads the tournament in total tackles (129) and tackles per match (25.8) as well as blocked shots (24). The Netherlands may be third in the tournament with nine goals scored (behind only Germany and Argentina) and will likely own the majority of possession in the match, but if the Uruguayan defense holds up, it's possible that none of that will matter.
There is no doubting the quality of Uruguay's defense, but Uruguay still needs to score to win, a task that will prove difficult against the Dutch defense, especially with striker Luis Suarez suspended. The responsibility will fall to Diego Forlán, who has scored four goals in his World Cup career but all against African sides. Three of his four goals have come from outside the box (the fourth was a penalty), and the only goal conceded by the Netherlands from open play this tournament came from there.
The Netherlands has produced a great team effort so far, but the offensive spotlight has shined the brightest on Wesley Sneijder. He is in contention for the Golden Boot, having scored four of the Netherlands' nine goals including the last three. Sneijder has scored a goal every 110.5 minutes, sixth among players on the teams to reach the knockout round and the best rate of anyone in this match.
Although this match could start out as a defensive battle, there is a good chance that the audience could be in store for a dramatic ending. Both of these teams came back to win after conceding the first goal and trailing at halftime in the quarterfinals, and each of these sides has scored three goals in the final 15 minutes of regular time, the second-highest total in the tournament.