Eddie Matz, ESPN Senior Writer 8y

Is Manny Machado becoming a better investment than Bryce Harper?

WASHINGTON -- With Bryce Harper and Manny Machado scheduled to hit free agency in two years, the 2018 offseason could go down in history as the winter that broke baseball's bank. The question is, which one of them will be the most prized catch?

Earlier this season, the answer seemed simple. Coming off his historic MVP campaign and an April player of the month award to boot, there was talk of Harper's commanding a colossal contract that could approach half a billion dollars. That's billion, with a "B."

As absurd as the numbers were, the logic made sense because A) Harper grew up a New York Yankees fan, goes bonkers for the bright lights and looked for all the world as if he was well on his way to rewriting the MLB record book; B) the Yankees are in rebuilding mode, should have loads of cash when the time comes and would love nothing better than to make Harper the next pinstripe poster boy; and C) he'll be only 26 years old when his current contract expires, an absurdly young age for a big-ticket free agent that would seem to limit the risk of declining performance in the future.

Cha-ching to the cha-ching power.

But something funny happened on the way to free agency: Bryce Harper stopped mashing like Bryce Harper.

A Wrigley Field walk-a-thon back in May turned into a small slump, which turned into a not-so-small slump, which turned into an extended slump, which turned into, "Oh my, what's wrong with the reigning MVP?"

The consensus was that it was just a matter of time before Harper snapped out of it, and by the time October rolled around we'd all be laughing at ourselves for being silly alarmists. But here we are with barely more than a month left in the season and Washington's face of the franchise is hitting .249.

In a tater-rific year where MLB players are on pace to hit 15.2 percent more homers than they did in 2015, Harper –- whose 42 jacks last season were tied for most in the NL –- is on pace for 28, or 33 percent fewer than he had a year ago. Even though he has looked better at the plate recently, hitting .381 with five extra-base hits in 10 games since returning from a stiff neck that cost him five games, the pachyderm-in-the-park question remains: With one season of great bookended by almost four-plus seasons of good, who exactly is the real Bryce Harper?

Meanwhile, just up the road in Baltimore, Machado has been killing it. After finishing fourth in MVP voting last year, he picked up right where he left off. Like Harper, he started 2016 by being named player of the month. Unlike Harper, Machado has kept his gifted game in gear. On the season, he's slashing .306/.359/.557. His 66 extra-base hits are third most in the American League, and he's on pace for a career-high in hits (194), homers (37) and RBIs (100). While he might not be the MVP favorite he was earlier in the season (thanks to Messrs. Altuve, Donaldson, and Betts), he's still in the conversation.

Speaking of conversations, when the Who Wants To Be A Half-Billionaire chatter first started brewing a few months ago, Machado wasn't part of it. Maybe it had something to do with health concerns. The former third overall pick in 2010 (two spots behind Harper) had suffered season-ending injuries to both knees in back-to-back years by the time he was 22. Maybe it had to do with the fact that the Orioles' slugger didn't project pinstripes the way that Harper did. Or maybe it was simply about numbers; as good as Machado was last season, he wasn't on the same level as Harper. Nobody was.

After watching the first three games of the Baltimore Orioles/Washington Nationals home-and-home series in person (not to mention 70 or 80 games combined between the two teams this year), it's clear to me that Machado still isn't on the same level as Harper -- he's above him.

Don't get me wrong. It's not as if Harper has had a bad series. He has gone 4-for-12, had a couple of loud outs and has continued to show signs that better days are ahead. But compared to Machado, he has been a non-factor.

Take Wednesday, for example. In Baltimore's 10-8 win over Washington, Machado went 4-for-6 with a homer and four RBIs. Meanwhile, Harper went 2-for-5 with a pair of singles and three strikeouts, including a crucial seventh-inning whiff that stranded two runners and left the Nats trailing 5-3. For the series, Machado has 10 total bases to Harper's four.

As for defense, I won't bore you with minutia other than to say that, even though comparing a third baseman to a right fielder is like comparing apples to snozberries, Machado clearly has been the better fielder in the series. But that's nothing for Harper to be ashamed of because, when it comes to the leather, Machado's one of best in the biz. A former Platinum Glove winner, (minutia warning) he has tallied 10 runs saved at third base this season, which ranks third at the position. If it weren't for him spending nearly two months filling in for J.J. Hardy at shortstop, he'd probably be neck-and-neck with Colorado's Nolan Arenado, whose 15 runs saved are the most at the hot corner. Meanwhile, Harper has accounted for one run saved on the season, which is tied for 33rd among right fielders.

Add it all up and it's easy to see why Machado's 5.6 WAR ranks sixth in the American League. Compare that to Harper, whose 2.0 WAR ranks fourth on his own team.

Am I saying that Machado's the best player in baseball? No way. Not with studs like Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant and Arenado doing what they're doing. Am I saying that Machado and Harper (or anyone for that matter) are worth half a billion bucks? Nope, not saying that either. What I am saying is that, with every day Machado is further removed from his knee injury, and with every day that he keeps doing what he's doing, Machado's free agent value climbs. After all, he too will be 26 when his contract is up -- presumably pre-prime and primed for prolific production.

And at some point, Harper's value will start to take a hit. Whether we've already reached that point is up for debate.

"I would be surprised if he continues the way he is right now," said one American League executive who thinks it's too early to start devaluing Harper. "He'll be judged at the appropriate time."

Added another AL executive: "His values are dynamic. They change based on the performance of the player. You'd like to have a more established track record before you invest huge sums of money."

The good news is, investors have another couple of years before it's bank-breaking time.

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