Ohio State is No. 1 in Preseason FPI 1.0

ESPN Stats & Information

Feb 13, 2017, 09:37 AM ET

With national signing day in the rearview mirror, it's time to start looking ahead to the 2017 college football season.

It also means there is enough information for ESPN Stats & Information to run its initial version of the Preseason Football Power Index (FPI) to determine the best and worst teams heading into next season.

Preseason FPI is designed to take the guesswork out of preseason ratings. It is an automated ranking intended to measure team strength going forward. It is not a ranking of who will have the highest win total (which is dependent on schedule) or who is most likely to make the College Football Playoff.

The model comprises four major components: the last four seasons of performance on offense, defense and special teams, with the most recent season counting most; information on offensive and defensive returning starters, with special consideration given to a team returning its starting quarterback or gaining a transfer quarterback with experience; a four-year average recruiting ranking of four systems (ESPN, Scouts, Rivals and Phil Steele); and head coaching tenure. These four components interact and are assigned different weights depending on the team to produce preseason FPI.

Combining all of the factors above produces a predicted value on offense, defense and special teams, which represents the number of points that each unit would be expected to contribute to the team’s scoring margin if it were to face an average FBS team on a neutral field.

Ohio State sits at No. 1 in the first iteration of preseason FPI. Entering his sixth season as head coach at Ohio State, Urban Meyer is returning eight offensive starters, including quarterback J.T. Barrett. The Buckeyes are returning seven starters to a defense that finished last season ranked second in defensive efficiency. Meyer again added depth to the team with a top-10 recruiting class for the fifth straight year.

Preseason FPI Rankings - Version 1.0

RANK	TEAM	FPI	PRED OFF RK	PRED OFF	PRED DEF RK	PRED DEF
1	Ohio State	28.9	2	12.1	2	14.8
2	Alabama	25.9	9	8.3	1	15.7
3	Oklahoma	24.5	1	17.4	20	6.2
4	Florida State	24.3	3	11.8	4	11.6
5	Auburn	21.5	5	10.4	10	9.4
6	LSU	19.6	10	8.0	6	10.4
7	Clemson	19.6	16	7.0	3	11.9
8	Penn State	18.9	6	9.9	17	7.7
9	Washington	18.7	8	8.6	12	8.7
10	Wisconsin	17.4	15	7.0	9	9.4
11	Stanford	16.7	30	4.7	8	9.7
12	USC	16.3	18	6.7	15	8.1
13	Georgia	15.6	36	3.5	5	11.1
14	Louisville	14.9	21	6.3	14	8.4
15	Florida	14.5	46	2.6	7	10.0
16	Miami (FL)	14.4	40	3.3	11	9.3
17	Notre Dame	14.2	14	7.2	22	6.0
18	Michigan	13.7	26	5.2	19	7.3
19	TCU	13.5	11	7.6	27	5.2
20	Tennessee	13.4	22	6.2	25	5.4
21	Oregon	12.3	4	11.6	61	-0.1
22	North Carolina State	12.2	19	6.5	23	5.7
23	UCLA	12.1	34	3.8	18	7.4
24	Texas	11.8	41	3.3	16	7.9
25	Washington State	11.7	13	7.3	29	4.3
26	Oklahoma State	10.6	12	7.3	46	2.2
27	Texas A&M	10.6	43	2.9	21	6.1
28	Baylor	8.7	27	5.0	32	3.6
29	Northwestern	8.6	48	2.5	26	5.4
30	Kansas State	8.5	24	5.5	48	2.1
31	Virginia Tech	8.2	74	-1.4	13	8.6
32	South Carolina	8.0	39	3.3	31	4.0
33	Mississippi State	7.6	23	6.1	55	1.4
34	Kentucky	7.4	31	4.6	45	2.3
35	North Carolina	7.3	42	3.1	35	3.3
36	Arkansas	7.0	25	5.4	58	1.1
37	Georgia Tech	6.8	32	4.6	54	1.4
38	Ole Miss	6.8	44	2.9	34	3.4
39	Iowa	6.6	62	0.0	24	5.4
40	Arizona State	5.6	53	1.3	39	2.9
41	Missouri	5.6	20	6.4	67	-1.0
42	Colorado	4.9	51	1.9	40	2.9
43	Memphis	4.6	28	4.9	69	-1.6
44	Pittsburgh	4.3	17	6.9	77	-2.6
45	Duke	4.2	55	1.3	43	2.5
46	Syracuse	4.1	37	3.4	57	1.2
47	Vanderbilt	4.0	58	0.4	33	3.5
48	Texas Tech	3.9	7	9.3	102	-5.1
49	Brigham Young	3.8	60	0.2	37	3.0
50	Utah	3.7	72	-1.4	30	4.0
51	South Florida	3.5	35	3.6	59	0.2
52	Oregon State	2.0	67	-0.9	44	2.4
53	West Virginia	2.0	56	0.6	53	1.5
54	Wake Forest	1.9	76	-1.6	36	3.1
55	Arizona	1.6	29	4.7	79	-2.8
56	Boise State	1.6	47	2.6	65	-0.8
57	Nebraska	1.5	82	-2.2	38	2.9
58	Michigan State	1.4	66	-0.9	50	1.9
59	Houston	0.8	70	-1.2	47	2.2
60	Indiana	0.8	79	-1.9	41	2.9
61	Minnesota	0.8	78	-1.7	52	1.8
62	California	0.8	33	4.1	89	-3.7
63	San Diego State	-0.1	88	-3.3	42	2.8
64	Colorado State	-0.2	45	2.8	80	-2.8
65	Toledo	-0.3	38	3.4	86	-3.2
66	UCF	-0.6	84	-2.8	49	2.0
67	Tulsa	-0.9	52	1.9	73	-2.3
68	Iowa State	-1.2	54	1.3	78	-2.6
69	Maryland	-1.5	83	-2.3	60	0.1
70	Western Michigan	-1.8	65	-0.9	62	-0.5
71	Navy	-1.9	49	2.4	88	-3.7
72	Boston College	-2.0	112	-6.6	28	4.3
73	Virginia	-2.1	90	-3.9	51	1.8
74	Appalachian State	-3.1	75	-1.5	66	-0.9
75	Army	-3.2	57	0.4	75	-2.4
76	Troy	-3.4	77	-1.7	70	-1.6
77	Western Kentucky	-4.4	73	-1.4	74	-2.4
78	Tulane	-4.5	98	-4.9	56	1.2
79	Southern Methodist	-4.9	71	-1.3	81	-2.9
80	Wyoming	-5.2	68	-1.1	83	-2.9
81	Louisiana Tech	-6.6	61	0.1	105	-5.6
82	Temple	-7.3	97	-4.9	72	-2.1
83	Illinois	-7.3	114	-6.8	63	-0.6
84	Arkansas State	-7.5	108	-6.0	68	-1.2
85	Miami (OH)	-7.5	93	-4.5	71	-2.0
86	Middle Tennessee	-7.8	63	-0.5	113	-6.5
87	Marshall	-8.1	89	-3.4	95	-4.3
88	Rutgers	-8.3	117	-7.4	64	-0.7
89	Central Michigan	-8.3	86	-3.0	93	-4.3
90	Cincinnati	-8.5	99	-5.1	82	-2.9
91	Ohio	-8.6	100	-5.1	87	-3.3
92	Air Force	-9.1	64	-0.9	118	-7.4
93	Old Dominion	-9.5	69	-1.2	115	-6.9
94	Northern Illinois	-9.5	96	-4.8	92	-4.0
95	UTSA	-9.7	102	-5.2	91	-3.9
96	New Mexico	-9.8	50	2.0	130	-11.2
97	East Carolina	-9.8	87	-3.3	103	-5.4
98	Purdue	-9.8	105	-5.6	90	-3.8
99	Utah State	-10.0	94	-4.7	98	-4.7
100	Southern Miss	-10.1	109	-6.2	84	-3.2
101	Florida Atlantic	-10.6	92	-4.4	107	-6.0
102	Kansas	-11.0	123	-8.4	76	-2.5
103	UNLV	-11.1	59	0.3	129	-10.3
104	Akron	-11.2	80	-2.1	122	-8.1
105	Ball State	-11.3	81	-2.1	124	-8.5
106	Nevada	-11.9	106	-5.7	106	-5.6
107	Hawaii	-11.9	91	-4.2	117	-7.2
108	Fresno State	-12.0	113	-6.7	101	-5.1
109	Louisiana-Lafayette	-12.1	122	-8.3	85	-3.2
110	San Jose State	-12.4	115	-7.2	94	-4.3
111	Bowling Green	-12.6	104	-5.6	112	-6.3
112	Eastern Michigan	-12.9	85	-2.8	127	-9.2
113	Coastal Carolina	-13.2	101	-5.1	116	-6.9
114	Georgia Southern	-13.3	111	-6.4	110	-6.2
115	Massachusetts	-13.4	103	-5.5	114	-6.6
116	Kent State	-13.6	121	-8.3	96	-4.4
117	Louisiana-Monroe	-14.1	110	-6.3	109	-6.1
118	Rice	-14.5	107	-5.8	121	-7.7
119	Idaho	-14.6	95	-4.7	126	-9.1
120	Connecticut	-14.8	126	-9.3	97	-4.6
121	South Alabama	-14.9	116	-7.4	111	-6.3
122	Buffalo	-15.0	124	-8.5	99	-4.7
123	Florida International	-15.3	129	-9.8	100	-4.8
124	Georgia State	-15.5	120	-8.3	104	-5.5
125	North Texas	-15.6	118	-7.5	120	-7.6
126	New Mexico State	-16.8	125	-8.8	108	-6.0
127	UAB	-16.9	127	-9.3	119	-7.4
128	UTEP	-19.0	119	-7.8	128	-10.0
129	Charlotte	-19.2	128	-9.3	123	-8.5
130	Texas State	-21.2	130	-11.1	125	-8.9

There will be multiple iterations of preseason FPI to capture the most up-to-date information on returning starters and other factors that affect the rankings. Complete season projections, which will include a team’s chance to win its conference, projected win total and more, will be available this spring. For more on the model and how it was created, please read this article or this companion piece from last season's release.