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If the Texas Rangers are going to succeed in the postseason, it will be vital to have a starting rotation that can shut down some of the top offensive teams in the AL East. Cole Hamels has shown that he’s a capable ace, both in the past and in the present. Derek Holland has looked sharp in two starts since he came off the disabled list. Colby Lewis is expected to return soon after missing more than two months. That leaves Yu Darvish, who allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings Monday in a win over the Mariners. For the most part, he has looked pretty good, pitching to a 3.01 ERA and keeping his walks in check since his return from the disabled list. Darvish struck out nine on Monday, which gives him 71 in 56 innings. His 30.7 strikeout percent since the break is fourth-best in the majors (Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks ranks first, with 33.3 percent). What was distinct about Monday was that Darvish got things done in a different way than he usually has this season. The Mariners were 0-for-7 with five strikeouts in at-bats ending with a Darvish curveball. Darvish threw 22 curveballs, which matched the number he threw in 20 2/3 innings in his previous three starts combined. Darvish was able to lure the Mariners into swinging at a pitch that was often around 70 mph because he was able to put most of them on or just off the edges of the plate. He threw 19 of the 22 within 18 inches of the center of the strike zone (in our system, we call that in “competitive pitch locations"). His typical competitive-location rate is about 67 percent. The unpredictability kept the Mariners from hitting the ball out of the park. Darvish has not allowed a home run in his past two starts. Homers had been a bit of a bugaboo for Darvish prior to that, with nine allowed in his first 59 innings. The other thing that has been different about Darvish recently has been his emphasis on his fastball. In past seasons, he threw a wider assortment of pitches and was less reliant on the heater. But now he throws the pitch more than half the time. In fact, in his past three starts, he has thrown his fastball 58, 69 and 59 percent of the time. Fangraphs.com’s pitch value stat rates Darvish’s fastball as more valuable than it has ever been. That is because it nets misses on 26 percent of hitters’ swings, the third-highest rate by any pitcher who has made at least a dozen starts this season.
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