• Gazing into the crystal ball

  • By Jason Sobel | December 29, 2009 10:58:13 AM PST

The past decade brought some unexpected occurrences in professional golf. For the first time ever, one player won a dozen major titles in a single 10-year span, Augusta National Golf Club lengthened its course by more than 100 yards and hybrid clubs replaced either fairway woods or long irons in most golf bags.

Sobel's On Twitter

Want to know what ESPN.com's Jason Sobel is up to? Sign up to track him on Twitter. Follow him
•  Follow ESPN Golf on Twitter

What will take place in the upcoming decade? Here are 10 predictions:

There will be a new No. 1-ranked player. Even if his "indefinite leave of absence" lasts only a few months, even if he returns as very much the same player we've known for the past decade, Tiger Woods will not spend the next 520 weeks as the No. 1 player atop the Official World Golf Ranking.

If that notion sounds unrealistic, consider this: At the conclusion of the previous decade, Woods was just months removed from his second career major victory at the 1999 PGA Championship and on the verge of history, winning the final three majors of 2000, two of them by a combined 23 strokes. Yet he still didn't remain the top-ranked golfer for the entirety of the decade, instead losing his grip on No. 1 during Labor Day weekend of 2004, trading places with Vijay Singh until halfway through the '05 season, when he regained it for good.

It is completely realistic to believe that swing changes, injury or, yes, personal crises will lead to a point during which Tiger drops in the OWGR.

The biggest question, of course, is which player will replace him. Current No. 2 man Phil Mickelson has never ascended to that spot and could make some headway during Woods' self-imposed absence. Players such as Sergio Garcia, Sean O'Hair and Hunter Mahan are just entering their peak years, while youngsters Ryo Ishikawa, Anthony Kim and Rickie Fowler could transform from phenoms to superstars.

Keep a close eye, though, on Northern Ireland sensation Rory McIlroy. At age 20, he is already ranked No. 9 and, as his peers have noticed, he hits it a long way off the tee, owns a solid iron game and is deft with a wedge or putter. Makes the game sound pretty easy, doesn't it?

Woods will turn 44 one day before the coming decade is complete. It's not inconceivable that he'll be the No. 1 golfer at that time, but it won't be a concurrent run from the beginning of 2010, either.

There will be more "diversity" on the PGA Tour. Despite the fact that the current crop of elite players hail not only from traditional golfing powerhouses like the United States, Australia, England and South Africa but also from the likes of Germany, Fiji, Argentina and Japan, there are those who continue to criticize the game for a lack of diversity in the professional ranks.

Of course, for many -- well, many in the U.S., at least -- "diversity" means not just golfers of different cultures, but diverse races, too. While Tiger Woods has helped grow the game within the African-American community for years, he remains the only player with such a background -- he refers to himself as "Cablinasian," a combination of Caucasian, black, American Indian and Asian -- currently with a PGA Tour card.

That doesn't mean we haven't seen talented African-American players on some of the game's minor league levels -- Tim O'Neal, Kevin Hall and Vincent Johnson are among those who have shown promise -- but the full Tiger effect has yet to come to fruition.

Perhaps it isn't exactly going out on a limb to suggest the number of African-American players on the PGA Tour will increase from one to, well, more than one over the next decade, but it will most certainly happen. Think about it: By 2019, Woods' first Masters victory will have taken place 22 years earlier. That means college grads who were born in 1997 will have spent an entire lifetime knowing the game's top player came from an at least partial African-American background.

Woods was never going to have an immediate effect on changing the racial diversity of the PGA Tour, but his gradual impact will be felt in coming years.

There will be another 59. There is a magic number in golf, and no, this one has nothing to do with Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 career major championship victories.

The number is 59, and it has only been achieved three times on the PGA Tour.

Sure, there are others who have broken the 60 barrier -- notably Annika Sorenstam on the LPGA Tour, Notah Begay on the Nationwide Tour and Harrison Frazar at Q-school -- but the list at the most elite level remains a threesome, with Al Geiberger (1977 Memphis Classic), Chip Beck (1991 Las Vegas Invitational) and David Duval (1999 Bob Hope Classic) the only players to accomplish such a feat.

Many others have come dangerously close, though. Since 1951, it's occurred on 21 separate occasions, but upon closer examination we can see that it's happened more frequently in recent years, with a dozen of those rounds coming in the past 20 years. That includes a pair of 60s in the past three seasons by Zach Johnson, the only player to post such a number twice during his career.

We can attribute this to many reasons, from a greater percentage of par-70 courses on tour to an infiltration of mental gurus preparing players to embrace going low. Whatever the case, the past decade didn't see any additions to the Geiberger/Beck/Duval triumvirate, but so many have come so close lately that it's only a matter of time before this list becomes a foursome.

There will be a new oldest major champion. Let's summarize everything we've come to know about older professional golfers recently: Technology allows them to hang with the young studs, increased workout regimens help them stay in shape, and experience so often trumps skill, especially with tournament titles on the line.

For proof, we need only remember the exploits of Kenny Perry and Tom Watson during the 2009 season. The former, at the age of 48, had a green jacket within his grasp before succumbing in a Masters playoff to Angel Cabrera; the latter, 11 years older, led going to the 72nd hole at the Open Championship but lost in a playoff to Stewart Cink.

Each man was poised to break the all-time record for oldest major champion, surpassing 1968 PGA Championship winner Julius Boros, who was 48 years, four months and 18 days old at the time. Instead, that mark still stands, though it appears to be only a matter of time before there is a new old man atop this list.

It should come as no coincidence that Perry and Watson had their moments at the Masters and the Open. Augusta often tends to favor those who have expansive knowledge from playing the course for many years and in various conditions, while the Open's links venues negate the advantage of length.

With more older players keeping fit and staying hungry, it's only a matter of time before Boros is bumped from the record he's occupied for 41 years and counting. Expect it to happen sooner rather than later.

There will be an 8,000-yard course. In 1999, the longest course on the annual PGA Tour schedule was Montreux Golf and Country Club, site of the Reno-Tahoe Open, which was 7,552 yards on the scorecard, but never played that long due to the thin mountain air that aided in the carry of all golf shots.

Back then it was difficult to imagine a track much bigger, but the next decade brought us 14 instances of courses playing 7,569 yards or longer, the longest being Ritz-Carlton GC at Dove Mountain, current home of the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship, which plays to a monstrous 7,849.

It would be too simpleminded to believe that -- even with a grooves rule change for 2010 negating the importance of distance -- we won't see an expansion of this number over the next 10 years.

Though the notion of an 8,000-yard course sounds like some sort of gimmicky, hope-you-brought-enough-balls resort attraction, the reality is we're not that far off from seeing such a venue in tournament competition. When it happens, expect it to be either the USGA or PGA of America which stretches a U.S. Open or PGA Championship ballpark to the limits.

Neither organization has been shy about increasing distance to its respective crown jewel in recent years. If officials are seeking greater publicity, having an "8" to begin the scorecard yardage would certainly garner that attention, even if the course never plays to that length during any single round.

There will be serious talks to include all players in either a Ryder or Presidents Cup competition. It's a query that is asked every autumn, during the Ryder or Presidents Cup: Why can't the powers that be come up with an annual international competition that includes players from all over the world?

The answer, really, is the same explanation for why the BCS format is still present in college football rather than a postseason playoff. Simply put, it's of greater benefit to organizers -- both financially and otherwise -- to retain the status quo rather than adjust to meet the needs of the current marketplace.

Despite the fact that golf has become a more global pursuit in recent years, the Ryder Cup remains a possibility only for those from the United States and Europe, while the Presidents Cup includes players from the U.S. and nations that aren't in Europe. While this may not change anytime soon -- after all, the Ryder Cup is scheduled so far in advance, there is already a host venue in place for the 2020 edition -- it wouldn't be far-fetched to believe that the PGA of America and PGA Tour will at least discuss the option of some all-inclusive international tournament, whether that means combining the two competitions or simply opening one up to every player.

Remember: Changing the format of one of these events wouldn't be unprecedented. It was just 30 years ago when continental Europeans were allowed to compete in the Ryder Cup for the first time.

There will be a combination PGA Tour/LPGA event. If there is one sport most like golf -- in both its individuality and the structure of its professional events -- it's tennis, which has always employed tournament sites to host men's and women's events simultaneously.

Certainly that would be a much more difficult proposition throughout golf's most elite level, but it would hardly be impossible. There is currently only one tourney in which the best from the PGA Tour and LPGA (as well as the Champions Tour) all compete, but the 3-Tour Challenge is a quirky, unofficial event which only boasts three players from each circuit.

With the tours needing to place more emphasis on creativity during difficult economic times, there's no reason to believe that PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem and new LPGA commissioner Michael Whan couldn't join forces for one tournament each year, garnering a heightened interest level among die-hard and casual fans alike.

Would the men and women play together or separately? Would they play from different sets of tees? How many players would be included from each tour? These are all questions that will need to be addressed, but none should prove so undeterminable that it would prevent such an event.

Already the USGA has planned a similar production, with the 2014 U.S. Open scheduled to take place at Pinehurst No. 2 one week before the Women's Open. It's quite reasonable to think that at some point the world's best men and women will compete on the same venue at the very same time, too.

There will be more non-sponsored tournaments. Longtime players and fans still refer to some tournaments by their erstwhile titles -- say the L.A. Open or the Greater Hartford Open -- when in reality those monikers were replaced by sponsor names long ago. (And in the case of these two, the original sponsor names have been replaced by newer sponsor names.)

Now, though, fewer companies are looking to plunge big bucks into title sponsorship deals. It makes sense, really. After all, how much business can a car manufacturer or a hotel chain or a consulting firm actually glean from being directly associated with a PGA Tour event?

Already the former Buick Invitational has gone from an offseason name change -- the Century Club of San Diego Invitational -- to the simpler San Diego Open for the 2010 edition of the Torrey Pines-based event. The same goes for the Bob Hope Classic (which lost Chrysler from its tourney name) and the St. Jude Classic (which removed Stanford last year). These titles harken back to a previous generation of tournaments, and while the folks at Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., headquarters would prefer sponsorship tie-ins for obvious reasons, players and fans who have been recalling events by city names all these years may finally be right once again.

Don't be surprised to see more tourneys have to incur the financial responsibility of hosting an event over the next decade without the assistance of a title sponsor. Some simply won't be able to handle the burden; others may actually flourish in such a situation.

Total PGA Tour prize money will continue to decrease. Consider it a source of pride for the PGA Tour, a fact that Finchem points out anytime it's questioned how the circuit can exist during an economic crisis: Since 1975, the total prize money for all events combined has increased every single year.

In that season, the overall purse was just under $8 million; it has since grown from $65 million in 1996 (Tiger Woods' rookie campaign) to more than four times that amount this past year. For 2010, the commish reports that the PGA Tour will see its 35th consecutive increase in prize money, albeit a slight one.

"While we anticipate some small increase in prize money during this downturn, it's a much flatter growth than it has been in the previous five years," Finchem said recently. "But in this environment, any kind of growth is growth, and we're pleased about that."

Except, uh, it's not exactly true -- not technically, at least. For this coming season, the total purse will be $270.8 million -- down nearly $4 million from 2009 -- but with one fewer tournament on the schedule, Finchem isn't necessarily fibbing, because the average prize money per tournament will increase.

Though Finchem and his staff should be commended for somehow bringing in more money per event once again, considering the current state of the economy, it doesn't seem likely that the overall value will rebound for 2011 and beyond. Many title sponsorship contracts will expire after this coming season, and it's not inconceivable that the Fall Finish -- which started as a seven-event post-FedEx Cup schedule three years ago, but will include just four in '10 -- could go away altogether.

Even if the average purse per tournament grows, losing just two or three events from what was a 47-tournament schedule this past year means the overall prize money will continue to decline for the foreseeable future.

There will be a new PGA Tour commissioner. When it comes to the position of PGA Tour commissioner, there isn't a whole lot of turnover. Joe Dey was initiated into the role in 1969, just after the tour split from the PGA of America. He was succeeded five years later by Deane Beman, who held the position for two full decades.

In 1994, Beman was replaced by Finchem, who had previously held the positions of vice president of business affairs, deputy commissioner and chief operating officer of the PGA Tour.

Finchem, of course, remains in this role, just the third commissioner in more than 40 years. It won't last forever, though. He is 62 years old -- he'll turn 63 during Masters week -- and his current contract runs through the end of the 2012 season, when he'll be 65. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Finchem could sign on for another three or four years at that point, but it's highly doubtful he would continue in this office well into his 70s.

Who would become the fourth commissioner in PGA Tour history? Certainly there are some very strong internal candidates, including former LPGA commish Ty Votaw and ex-Champions Tour president Rick George, each of whom now serves in an executive vice president capacity.

Whether it's one of these two men, another PGA Tour exec or someone from the outside, expect a new person in charge a decade from now.

Jason Sobel is a golf writer for ESPN.com. He can be reached at Jason.Sobel@espn3.com.


Tell us what you think!

Take Survey Now » No Thanks »