Ted Miller, ESPN Senior Writer 7y

It's dangerous to make assumptions about second half of Pac-12 season

If Washington wins out, it's going to be in the College Football Playoff. If Utah wins out, it probably will be in the CFP. A team from Oregon isn't going to win the Pac-12's North Division, and Arizona isn't going to win the South.

After that, it's mostly chaos, muddle and a lot of "What the heck?" halfway through the 2016 season, with the Pac-12 on the whole injury-ravaged and underperforming with just two top-25 teams. Heck, only Utah, Washington and Washington State have not had issues at quarterback, which at least partially explains why those three remain in the thick of things in the Conference of Quarterbacks with Halloween just around the corner.

As things stand now, it's reasonable to project that the Pac-12 divisional races won't be resolved until the final weekend of the season, with two outlier games seemingly poised to decide things: Washington at Washington State on Friday, Nov. 25, in the North, and Utah at Colorado the next day in the South.

That, in itself, defines where the conference is. It's in a new place, perhaps in transition.

Stanford or Oregon have won every conference title since expansion in 2011, so crowning a different North champion is significant. As for the South, it says something positive about the expansion teams added to the Pac-10 that they are now taking care of their business in conference play. No more patronizing pats on the head for the Utes and Buffaloes.

Most notable is Colorado's climb out of the basement, as Utah has been delivering busted lips for a couple of seasons now. The Buffaloes won five conference games over the previous five years, but they will go for No. 4 this season at Stanford on Saturday.

Think of your preseason self. Did it occur to you that the Buffs' visit to The Farm would be a big game, with the visitors in far better shape in the conference race? Colorado hasn't beaten Stanford since 1990 and its three previous Pac-12 games against the Cardinal were decided by 32, 48 and 41 points.

After manhandling Arizona State 40-16, the Buffs officially were upgraded from "neat story" to "contenders," and they are settling old scores. The program had never beaten the Sun Devils, and the average margin of defeat in the previous seven games in the series was 26.4 points, with Colorado never getting closer than 14.

On Saturday, the Buffs outgained the Sun Devils 580 yards to 199 and rushed for 315 yards, beating a ranked team for the first time since 2009.

"They kicked our tail," Arizona State coach Todd Graham said.

Washington, enjoying a bye after whipping Stanford and Oregon in back-to-back games, plays host to Oregon State on Saturday, but its trip to Utah on Oct. 29 looms large, as the Utes are the only team on the Huskies' remaining schedule that is presently ranked. Last year, the Utes won in Seattle, beating the Huskies for the first time in nine meetings.

Washington also features the Pac-12's only Heisman Trophy candidate in surging QB Jake Browning, as Stanford's downturning fortunes mirror the Heisman hopes of Christian McCaffrey, who missed the Cardinal's win at Notre Dame with an undisclosed injury. His status is uncertain for this week.

The North and South divisions present potential wild cards, a pair of teams who were previously stinking up the joint.

First, there are those unpredictable Cougars. After losing to an FCS team (Eastern Washington) and a good Group of Five team (Boise State) to start an embarrassing 0-2, and having coach Mike Leach roll out one of his strange stream-of-consciousness rants, Washington State has climbed off the canvas, wiped its bloodied nose and looked, well, fantastic on both sides of the ball.

The offense scored a combined 93 points in whippings of Oregon and Stanford, while coordinator Alex Grinch's defense has stepped up too. The Cougs will be at Arizona State on Saturday, a matchup that seems to favor them considering the Sun Devils' defensive struggles and health issues at quarterback.

What's noteworthy about a potential build-up for the Apple Cup is that Washington State, like Washington, actually has a one-game buffer. It could lose one of its next five games but still win the North in the Pullman chill by taking down the Huskies.

The Huskies have the same scenario in the North race, but they are eyeballing a less forgiving invitational: The College Football Playoff. A berth also almost certainly would earn Browning at least an invite to the Heisman ceremony in Manhattan.

The notion of waylaying the Huskies' national title dreams as well as any potential Heisman hopes, well, if you know any Cougs, you know nothing could be more savory for them.

The second wild card is none other than the conference bell cow: USC. Yep, the team that got humiliated by Alabama and started 1-3 and 0-2 in conference play is in the thick of the South race. The Trojans will need some help, but they won the South last year with three losses and who's to say chaos won't prevail?

While that chaos might elevate some teams, it also could further aggravate the already heavy disappointment of others. Arizona, Oregon and UCLA presently are mired in frustration, and a few others could join them. While Ducks coach Mark Helfrich is probably sitting on the hottest seat, it feels like a good bet that more than one conference team will change head coaches after the season. There might be some conference coaches looking for a change of venue if the right suitor comes calling.

Five Pac-12 teams were ranked in the preseason and two others were receiving votes, but the big question in August was whether the conference had a CFP contender after getting left out in 2015. Many believed not.

The answer at the midway point of 2016 is the Pac-12 does have a playoff contender, perhaps two. But after that, the conference once noted for its depth and potential to challenge the SEC as the top Power 5 league is pretty much just muddling around.

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