Tim Dierkes continues his series with a look at the Reds. Money shot:

The Reds scored 4.35 runs per game in '08, 12th in the NL. How will they fare in the post-Dunn/Griffey era? Keep in mind that it's also the post-Patterson/Bako era, and the Gomes/Chris Dickerson platoon should be effective. CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool call for 4.42 runs per game which unfortunately still would've ranked 12th last year. This team still falls short offensively, even with strong years from the team's young sluggers. Even if I generously put the Reds at 750 runs allowed, they project to win 77 games. It's difficult to see this team cracking .500 as it's presently constructed. Bottom line: The Reds' rotation looks strong, but Jocketty failed to add the needed offense.

Every year I get a bunch of e-mail messages wondering if this is the year, and every year it's not; the Reds are working on an eight-year streak of sub-.500 seasons. Why the annual optimism? Because their uniforms are so pretty. You think I'm joking, but I'm not; the Reds are one of the smartest-looking teams and you almost can't help but wish them well. Look, I too like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce and Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. Aaron Harang's not going to go 6-17 again, and Homer Bailey still has a shot (theoretically, at least). I suppose if you make a list of five surprise teams in 2009, the Reds might be in there somewhere. But while finally reaching .500 might be a realistic goal, qualifying for October baseball probably is not.