The funnel effect is beginning for the field of 64. Now, just like the latter stages of February and early March in basketball, college baseball fans are going to hear the phrase "on the bubble" a lot in the coming weeks. So now is a good time to take a look at the teams that are sitting square on the bubble for pulling an at-large bid to the Big Dance (if they don't win their conference tournament, of course).
Ten teams that need to win and win now:
Central Florida
RPI: 28Record: 29-19, 7-11 Conference USA
Pluses: First and foremost, those two wins over Florida were huge. Additional W's vs. Stetson, Alabama, Rice (two) and East Carolina are rocket-launchers, too. The RPI is pretty solid and it likely won't plummet out of consideration. This is an up-and-coming program.
Minuses: The biggest eyesore -- and the main reason the Knights are on this list -- is that losing mark in conference play that has the Knights in second-to-last place. If they trip further down, grab the golf clubs. The early nonconference slate came against a lot of snowbirds, building mostly easy W's.
What they must do: Use the last two weekends to get above .500 in C-USA play. Go ahead and beat Stetson again on May 17, just in case. Like most teams here, the Knights can't go belly-up in the conference tournament.
Connecticut
RPI: 52Record: 34-13-1, 18-3 Big East
Pluses: Last year built some equity for the Huskies. They've gone 25-4 in their past 29 games, and you know how the committee likes to reward hot teams. Leading the Big East should earn them some brownie points as well. Hope their appearance in some national rankings merits some worth to the committee.
Minuses: As usual, the strength of schedule (No. 153) is an issue for northern teams. A cold start left these guys out-of-sight, out-of-mind. The Big East is the 16th-rated conference. With the exception of a win over Cal, UConn lost most of their big matchups early on.
What they must do: As you might expect, winning the Big East regular season is a must. Hope the NCAA will be lenient toward their strength of schedule and early struggles. In other words, hope the NCAA uses common sense and realizes they are one of the top 30 teams in the country, regardless of rating.
Creighton
RPI: 49Record: 33-12, 10-5 Missouri Valley
Pluses: Once again, a great defense (seventh in NCAA) proves the Bluejays are a high-quality team. MVC is currently 10th-rated conference. Many members of the NCAA were treated to a nice pre-CWS walk-through at the first game of the new stadium, maybe it will curry some favor for an at-large.
Minuses: Pretty weak schedule at No. 127 in the country. Toledo, South Dakota State and Kansas State are only non-MVC teams with winning records they've beaten. Opponents like New Mexico, Portland, Kansas and Arkansas State have had worse-than-expected seasons.
What they must do: Getting above the 40-win plateau would be a good start. Sweeping second place Missouri State on the final weekend would also be huge. At least make a deep run in the MVC tournament at their home stadium.
East Tennessee State
RPI: 32
Record: 31-16. 12-10 Atlantic Sun
Pluses: The Bucs have been in the top 25 of the RPI for most of the season and are still in solid at-large territory. College home run champion Paul Hoilman and the Bucs lead the country in HRs, buying them some street cred. Winning series at NC State opened some eyes last weekend. A-Sun is seventh-ranked conference.
Minuses: Other than the Wolfpack, the nonconference slate is wack. Marist, Rider and Manhattan are good teams in their respective conferences, but it won't earn them many brownie points. At just 12-10, it's not like they've dominated the A-Sun either, so that could be taken as an indication of mediocrity.
What they must do: The Bucs must get as many wins as possible against Georgia Tech and Mercer to end the regular season. Have to hope the series versus Campbell doesn't sink their RPI too much. If the NCAA selection committee leans heavily on RPI and not common sense, ETSU will be golden.
Georgia
RPI: 21Record: 24-23, 13-10 SEC
Pluses: The ridiculously high RPI makes the Bulldogs a lock, right? If that doesn't, then wins over teams like Georgia Tech, UCLA and Baylor probably will. Conference wins over South Carolina, LSU (two), Florida and Arkansas (two) give a huge boost as well.
Minuses: The main reason the Dawgs are mentioned here is because that overall record is getting dangerously close to sub-.500. If that happens, it's curtains. Dogs have gone just 5-6 in weekend series. Can't let that awful sweep to Auburn turn into a major losing streak.
What they must do: By all means, win the series versus last place Kentucky this week and pulling a win or two versus Vanderbilt would help too. Going 0-fer in the SEC tournament would be a crushing blow.
Hawaii
RPI: 96Record: 27-20, 12-4 WAC
Pluses: I know, how can the Warriors be a bubble team with that RPI, right? But look at the upside. The Warriors lead the WAC, own wins over Texas, Oregon (two), LMU (two), Wichita State (three) and Fresno State (two). The selection committee members have to look at their travel restrictions.
Minuses: Well obviously, their RPI has issues. All those wins mentioned above are teams that are underrated in the RPI, pulling down their rating in turn. The WAC is always undervalued in the RPI. Their nonconference slate was weaker than normal this season.
What they must do: Of foremost importance, hope the selection committee takes their unique geography and situation into consideration. Don't let the loss total to get over 25, it becomes an eyesore at that point.
Jacksonville
RPI: 47Record: 29-18, 18-9 Atlantic Sun
Pluses: The Dolphins went a combined 6-3 vs. Stetson, ETSU and Mercer, who are all inside the top 75 of the RPI. Finishing second in the No.7-rated conference in the country is noteworthy. Also went 2-1 versus both Samford (No. 74) and UNC-Wilmington (No. 79).
Minuses: Lost all of their best nonconference matchups with Florida State, College of Charleston and South Florida. Upcoming games with Florida A&M will drag down the RPI. The A-Sun doesn't have a long history of being a multi-bid league.
What they must do: Do your best to beat Florida on the 17th and then take down Kennesaw State in the final weekend. Short of winning it, make a deep run in the A-Sun tourney. Wouldn't hurt to win any matchup they'll have with Stetson and ETSU.
Kent State
RPI: 45Record: 34-13, 17-4 MAC
Pluses: The Flashes have been high up in the RPI and in the consciousness of college baseball circles for most of the season. Wins over Georgia Tech and Coastal Carolina go along with a 21-3 mark since late March. All-Americans like LHP Andrew Chafin and OF Ben Klafczynski give the Flashes cache value.
Minuses: Just as we've seen in MAC play, upcoming weekends against Bowling Green and Akron will provide an anchor effect for the RPI. Going 0-4 versus now-average Louisville is pretty bad in hindsight. And lastly, if history has taught us anything, MAC teams just don't get at-large bids, cruel as that may sound.
What they must do: There's almost nothing they can do, short of winning out the rest of the way. Anything short of the MAC tourney title in Chillicothe will be viewed as a failure. Still, this team is far talented enough to excel in the field of 64.
LSU
RPI: 27Record: 30-19, 8-16
Pluses: C'mon, it's LSU. They're a fixture here, right? The RPI is good and that three-game sweep versus Cal State Fullerton is still as impressive of a sweep as we've seen this season. In addition, if the Tigers make the SEC tournament, that RPI will elevate.
Minuses: The selection committee is famous for showing no quarter for teams that struggle down the stretch and the Tigers are 14-18 since March 18. Also, the SEC East is far superior to the West, so if LSU finishes last in the weaker division, it won't look good.
What they must do: Get out of jail! No really, get out of the last place. Then, make the tournament and win a game or two once there.
Troy
RPI: 44Record: 35-14, 17-7 Sun Belt
Pluses: The Men of Troy lead the Sun Belt, the sixth-rated conference in the country, so you figure it'll be a multi-bid conference … at least, it should. Winning two of three against Southern Miss, FIU and Louisiana, scored some big RPI points.
Minuses: Since April 9, the Trojans have gone 10-9. In that same span they've seen their RPI go from the low 20s to above 50 and now 44. The strength of schedule is uninspiring, at No. 142 in the country. Losing two of three to last place Middle Tennessee was painful too.
What they must do: The RPI Needs Report from BoydsWorld.com says they'll need to go 7-1 the rest of the way to get inside the top 45, so don't trip up with another poor weekend against either Louisiana-Monroe or South Alabama. Avoid any two-or-three-and-outs in the SBC tourney.
Eric Sorenson, who runs College Baseball Today, and Walter Villa are regular contributors to ESPN's college baseball coverage. Follow Eric on Twitter: @stitch_head
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