It may seem like Jimmie Johnson has the Cup locked up , but for all you chalk bettors out there who have called this race before it even begins, I'd like to pull your attention back seven years ago to the 2002 Talladega. As he is this weekend, Jimmie Johnson cruised into Alabama as the points leader (he was still just an out-of-nowhere rookie phenom back then). Mark Martin, as he is this weekend, was second in points, a mere 11 points back, instead of the 118 he'll trail on Sunday. And as is also the case this weekend, the third- and fourth-place competitors were Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart, though in '02 it was Smoke in third, 36 points back, and Gordon in fourth, 109. What took place that day -- in the span of about 30 seconds -- was one of the most oft-forgotten single-day swings in Cup Series title fight history. Let us set the scene.During the warm-up laps -- not the race, the FREAKING WARM-UP LAPS -- the front row of Johnson and Martin were cruising behind the pace car, still four turns away from taking the green. Martin, on the high side, started warming up his tires with some hard left-right movements -- one of the oldest, most common prerace rituals there is.But the turns looked wonky. The No. 6 Ford Taurus lurched right toward the wall, then right again, then hard back to the left ... and directly into the nose of Jimmie Johnson's Chevy."Mark, was it something with the tire rubbing against the fender?" Crew chief Ben Leslie asked over the radio as Martin spun helplessly toward the wall just past the start-finish line."No," Martin replied, audibly disgusted. "That wasn't it. This was mechanical. Something broke."Martin was forced to pull into pit row because of a black flag. After repairs had been made, he struggled to finish the race two laps down. Johnson suffered precious aerodynamic damage to his Chevy that was coincidentally followed by a rare outbreak of Hendrick engine failures, a rash that also ended the day for Gordon. Eventually, Martin finished 30th. Johnson finished 37th. Gordon was 42nd. And Stewart?"We finished second and took over the points lead for the first time ever," former crew chief Greg Zipadelli recalled last weekend at Martinsville. "Tony tucked in behind Dale Junior and never even made a move for the win. We couldn't believe what happened. We entered that weekend third in points and left in the lead, up something like 75 points over Mark. [Actually, it was 72] It was a 100-plus point swing. And none of our closest guys were taken out by the big one, the big crash. Can you believe that?"Frankly, no. I couldn't believe it that day and I still can't today. But deep down -- and I know you're with me on this, race fans -- I'd like to see it happen again. Right, Zippy?"You don't ever want to wish a bad day on your competition. And I know Tony doesn't want to win a title that way. But if it happens, it won't exactly break his heart."

Talladega Chase Chances

History may tell us to be wary of predictions, but once again, as we do every Friday, it's time to get so deep inside our NASCAR projections we'll give your ninth grade algebra teacher a migraine. We take the 12 Chasers and look at their career numbers at the next track on the schedule, this week being the uber-scary and perpetually unpredictable Talladega Superspeedway. As always, we factor in each driver's career, their most recent visit to this track, in this case April's Aaron's 400, their driver rating and their current momentum on the leaderboard. Current points ranking are in parentheses.For the record, in two weeks of trials, my numbers have successfully predicted that Jimmie Johnson was going to contend for the win at both Lowe's and Martinsville. Then again, that's like predicting who's going to win a showdown between a butterfly and the windshield of a Mack truck. By the way, don't read too much into Carl Edwards' 24th-place finish from the spring. You might recall that he was leading with the checkered flag in view when this happened.

* Aaron's 499, won by non-Chaser Brad Keselowski
** Driver Rating has been compiled by NASCAR since 2005

Halloween: Scariest Paint Schemes

It's never too late to look back on truly groundbreaking journalism. So, in honor of All Hallow's Eve, feel free to take a look back at my ESPN.com story of one year ago, documenting the top five scariest NASCAR paint schemes of all-time.