• Heels', Huskies' struggles threaten Tourney hopes

  • By Joe Lunardi | February 1, 2010 12:27:01 PM PST

With mounds of data from tournaments past, we now have the ability to provide college hoops fans a new way to examine the bracket. Today marks the start of the Tournament Odds project, which will better foretell how the Bracket will look on Selection Sunday. Take a look at how it works.

Unlike Bracketology, our Tourney Odds program is more predictive. It essentially compares current teams with similar teams from prior seasons in our database to forecast how schools with those profiles tend to fare come Selection Sunday. It is most instructive at the very top of the bracket (e.g., identifying No. 1 seeds) and most confounding at the bubble (e.g., determining the bottom of the at-large pool).

For the next several weeks, we'll take Insiders under the hood of our Tourney Odds program as a companion to each edition of Bracketology. If you don't like how the numbers look for your team, just wait. With six weeks to go until Selection Sunday, the picture still can change on a dime.

Just look at the top of our field. Current data identify 11 teams with at least a 10 percent chance of being No. 1 seeds.

You can view exactly which teams have the best show at the top line by reading the full story here. But if you want to check out the odds, you have to be an ESPN Insider.

Insiders also get access to the Behind the Bracket column, which today details the decline of North Carolina and Connecticut.


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