• Brewers' Gamel ill-equipped to play third base

  • By Keith Law | September 11, 2009 7:43:10 AM PDT
I ranked Milwaukee third baseman Mat Gamel 86th on my top 100 prospects last winter despite a strong track record in the minors because of concerns about his swing and lack of position. He looks hopeless at third base, with bad hands and feet for the position, and while he has plenty of arm he tends to sidearm the ball, which isn't going to help his throwing accuracy.
Mat Gamel

Gamel

The Brewers have brought up several third basemen in name only (3BINOs) recently, stuck with them as long as they reasonably could (or longer), and yet none has improved enough to stay at the position. Gamel is much less athletic than Ryan Braun is, and it's not likely that he'll break the streak.At the plate, Gamel has two things going for him -- bat speed and raw strength. His wrists are quick and he explodes to the ball once he gets his hands started from a fairly deep loaded position, with good extension through the ball. He's strong and looks like he'll get a little stronger, probably producing 25 to 30 home run power at his peak. He also has shown adequate plate discipline throughout his career. On the negative side, Gamel's entire swing isn't conducive to making adjustments. He bars his lead arm fully (see screenshot) after striding, which limits his time to react to pitches and also commits him somewhat to a predetermined path. A bar isn't fatal -- teammate Frank Catalanotto has barred his front arm throughout a 13-year career in the majors -- but it increases the importance of skills like pitch recognition and hand-eye coordination that Gamel hasn't shown.Until this year he had a strong track record of performance at every level, including a .329/.395/.537 line last year in Double-A Huntsville and a .300/.378/.472 line the year before that in the hitter-unfriendly Florida State League. Since reaching Triple-A, however, his contact rates have suffered significantly, with 99 strikeouts in 353 plate appearances there across two years, none of which is a surprise given his swing; advanced pitching is giving him trouble.Gamel's profile isn't that of a great prospect. He currently has no position, and he's probably going to end up a below-average corner outfielder, a first baseman, or a DH, any of which would require more offensive output than third base would. He's a few major adjustments away from becoming a good hitter for average in the majors, and his walk rates, while adequate, would probably still produce low to moderate OBPs for a player at a hitter's position. I understand that the Brewers refused to part with Gamel in trade talks this summer, and given his track record in 2007-08 I can see some reason for the reluctance, but I'm not sure where he profiles for a club with superstars at first base and in left field and no DH spot available.
Alcides Escobar

Escobar

• The Brewers' Alcides Escobar is pretty clearly a major league-caliber defensive shortstop, if not right now then in the immediate future, and I see some things to like about his bat. In the field, he has the requisite skills -- quick feet, good hands, a plus arm -- and his instincts and reads are good enough already for him to be an asset in the majors.As a hitter, Escobar has a lot of extra garbage going on early in his swing that limits his effectiveness, although his core swing is good. He has an exaggerated leg kick that robs him both of balance and ability to control his weight, and he closes his elbows together before moving his hands to a set position; the latter looks like a trigger to get his swing started, but I think it costs him time. Once he gets his hands started, he has a solid swing with good hand speed, and I could see him hitting for some power if he improves his balance and keeps his weight back; he does have a bad tendency to collapse his back side when swinging at anything below the middle of the zone, which is going to produce a lot of popups and lazy fly balls instead of the line drives that his swing would otherwise produce.Escobar's other issue is extreme impatience. He swings at just about everything, and because his hands are quick and he has good hand-eye coordination, he makes a lot of contact -- just not enough of the right kind of contact to maximize his value. I doubt he'll ever be an 80-walks-a-year guy, but if he at least worked the count a little, he could put himself into better position to get balls he can drive into the gaps. He is plenty young to acquire this skill, at least.
Colby Rasmus

Rasmus

• St. Louis center fielder Colby Rasmus ranked 12th on my top 100 prospects coming into the season and, if anything, that was probably a bit low, as Rasmus projects as a star both offensively and defensively. Rasmus is a true five-tool player who also has good instincts and plate discipline; the only tool that's not fully present now is his power, but there's plenty to come as he's already able to drive balls to the wall in either direction. Rasmus does load his hands deep and nearly bars his front arm, but unlike Gamel he has exceptional bat speed and pitch recognition, meaning he can overcome the slight time disadvantage created by the bar.Rasmus really impressed me in the Milwaukee series with his approach at the plate, including seven- and eight-pitch at bats, an at-bat where he came back from 0-2 to even the count at 2-2 and hit a triple to deep left-center, and two at-bats in which he jumped on fastballs early in the count and made strong contact. He showed patience, pitch recognition and an advanced two-strike approach.In the field, Rasmus has the raw speed to be a plus center fielder and also showed good reads on balls, particularly when he had to come in or move laterally. He has an above-average arm. His bat and glove at a position in the middle of the field give him huge potential to be an impact player, even an MVP candidate in the best-case scenario, assuming his first baseman ever lets anyone else share the award.

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