• Nats, Strasburg make deal that had to be made

  • By Keith Law | August 17, 2009 10:05:41 PM PDT
The Stephen Strasburg signing was inevitable -- both sides had far too much to lose -- and it's a clear win for both sides. Neither the Nationals nor Strasburg had an appealing alternative to a negotiated agreement; the Nationals would have received the second pick in next year's draft but would have faced a PR disaster, while Strasburg would have had to go pitch in independent ball, a route that hasn't worked well for the last few pitchers who've tried it. Strasburg's leverage, always limited by the structure of the draft, would never have been higher, given his historically great performance this spring. Strasburg's contract came in below expectations in both bonus (a little more than $15 million and number of years (four years), although given the nature of the draft -- the player can only negotiate with the team that drafted him and his only real threat is to hold out -- it's still an impressive figure and shatters all previous draft records, which is appropriate for perhaps the best pitcher in the history of the draft. Assuming Strasburg's deal starts in 2009 (rather than a 2010 deal, which would mean he couldn't pitch this year), his contract would expire just when he's eligible for arbitration, assuming he spends most of 2010-12 in the majors. This retains his opportunity to cash in through that process after what would likely be three strong years at the top of Washington's rotation. Pitching in an independent league and risking an injury or a general loss of stuff was not a viable alternative for him. For Washington, this gives the franchise an enormous PR win in what has been a tough year, from the Esmailyn Gonzalez fiasco to the ouster of their GM to a terrible start to the season to the recent loss of their star young pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann, to Tommy John surgery. Strasburg could pitch for the team in September in a limited role, which would likely do wonders for attendance, and he should be in their rotation next spring. This also frees Washington from the possibility of having two top-five picks next spring, perhaps even the top two picks, which would have meant a substantial financial outlay and the potential to either re-draft Strasburg or be forced to pass on him because he wouldn't consent to re-selection by Washington. And they paid less than I expected to sign Strasburg this year. They just added a potential No. 1 starter to their organization for maybe 10 percent of what an established No. 1 starter would cost in free agency, and Strasburg gets the opportunity to walk in as the savior for a franchise that desperately needs a pitcher just like him. That's a win-win.

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