No. 17 Louisiana-Lafayette
There are a lot of reasons to think Louisiana-Lafayette has a shot to get back to the Women's College World Series, or at least make some noise in the postseason. Start counting with the seven returning starters in the batting order, including Christi Orgeron, the reigning Sun Belt Freshman of the Year, and Katie Smith, a second-team all-conference pick who hit .393 and stole 25 bases. Then keep adding with three returning pitchers who combined to throw all but five innings last season for a pitching staff that ranked second nationally with a 1.02 ERA -- all of that despite getting somewhat limited innings from Ashley Brignac as she worked her way back from injury. But while anything close to a healthy Brignac could make the Ragin' Cajuns a legitimate title sleeper -- we're talking about someone who struck out 327 batters in 228.1 innings as a freshman, including a 15-strikeout gem against Florida in her first World Series start -- junior de facto ace Donna Bourgeois deserves her plaudits as more than Brignac's healthier understudy. With Stacey Nelson having moved on, now befuddling batters on a global scale after a stellar four-year career at Florida, Bourgeois stands to inherit at least part of her pitching legacy. No, Bourgeois isn't Nelson in totality, but when it comes to keeping balls in the yard, they are two of a kind. Responsible for roughly 61 percent of her team's innings last season, Bourgeois allowed a grand total of four home runs in 854 at-bats. She also allowed just 14 doubles and one triple, or roughly one extra-base hit every 12.4 innings. Broaden the sample size and it looks like more than good fortune -- she allowed just 15 extra-base hits in 150.1 innings as a freshman. If a pitcher doesn't give up the long ball, doesn't give up extra runners -- Bourgeois has just 84 walks in 385.2 career innings -- and strikes out better than a hitter per inning, she's going to be one of the better pitchers in the country, no matter who else she shares a roster with.No. 18 Baylor
Baylor ended Louisiana-Lafayette's season last spring, beating the Ragin' Cajuns twice in an NCAA tournament regional in Waco. Those wins, especially the 6-1 clincher, were effectively the last hurrah in a fantastic freshman season for Baylor ace Whitney Canion. By the time the Bears got to Ann Arbor for a super regional, Canion had hit the wall physically -- with an eye to the future, coach Glen Moore didn't even start her in the second game of Michigan's sweep. Canion was only the second freshman to lead the Big 12 in strikeouts (two guesses as to the first, and the first one better be Cat Osterman). In fact, excluding Osterman, Canion was only the second freshman or sophomore to earn that distinction, following Texas sophomore Christa Williams in 1998. So clearly, how she bounces back is the single biggest factor in the outlook for a team that has only two freshman listed on the roster as pitching options. But that's not the only question mark for the Bears. Moore loves to put the game in motion on offense and has the players to make it work. But when Baylor reached the World Series in 2007, it had some thunder to go with the lightning. That team stole 142 bases but also slugged .467, led by Ashley Monceaux. Last season's team slugged .412, an improvement from 2008, but that included big contributions from seniors Brette Reagan and Alex Colyer. The Bears will undoubtedly miss Reagan's presence and leadership. They'll definitely miss her defense at third base. But more than anything, their lineup will miss the 18 extra-base hits she provided in 114 at-bats. Other than Virginia Tech in 2008, it's difficult to find a team in recent years that advanced to Oklahoma City slugging less than .400 for the season. And as good as Canion was as a freshman and could be as a sophomore, it's not clear she's in Angela Tincher's league just yet. So who steps up and makes use of the power alleys in Waco?Graham Hays covers softball for ESPN.com. E-mail him at Graham.Hays@espn3.com.
