• Minors: Paul Goldschmidt, Top 11 for '11

  • By Jason Grey | May 12, 2011 11:17:24 AM PDT
One power-hitting first-base prospect, the Royals' Eric Hosmer, was recently promoted to the big leagues. Could another one be not far behind?

The Arizona Diamondbacks are getting very little out of the three players they've asked to hold down the first-base position. Xavier Nady (.311 OPS), Juan Miranda (.383 SLG) and Russell Branyan (.392 SLG) all have failed to step up thus far, and there are some who think Brandon Allen has too many holes in his swing for the team to count on him as a regular. With that in mind, we look at one of the hottest hitters in the minor leagues, Paul Goldschmidt.An eighth-round pick in the 2009 draft out of Texas State, the 23-year-old right-handed hitter showed prodigious power as an amateur, and has had nothing but success since turning pro. He led the Pioneer League in homers and slugging in his debut season in 2009, then skipped over low Class A to mash 80 extra-base hits in the hitter-friendly California League last season, leading the circuit in doubles (42), homers (35) and slugging percentage in winning the league's MVP award.Goldschmidt continues to answer some of the questions about his bat with more mashing this season at Double-A, hitting .336 with 13 homers in his first 31 games.So what are those questions? Well, Goldschmidt doesn't have a complicated swing, but he has had to overcome a reputation as just a mistake hitter. He had a monster 2010 season, but he also fanned 161 times, getting over-aggressive and chasing outside pitches too much. To his credit, he doesn't miss many mistakes, but he'll also get into ruts in which his swing gets extra long and he gets too pull-happy.On the positive side, Goldschmidt has big-time raw strength, and he pairs it with good hands and a good bat path that allows him to hit for power to all fields. He also has solid pitch recognition; his strikeouts were often more about his aggressiveness than about getting fooled.This season he has shown an improved approach at the plate, both from a scouting perspective and a statistical one. He has doubled his walk rate and cut his strikeout rate in half in the early going, walking more times than he has struck out. Part of his strikeouts decrease is because he often hits the ball early in the count, and the added walks are because he's being pitched to more carefully now. But to his credit, he has been willing to take the walk if that's what's given, something that wasn't always the case last year.The big question is how well his swing will work against big league-caliber pitching, and whether or not his ceiling is higher than that of a platoon bat against southpaws. There are many examples of players who were big-time sluggers in the upper levels of the minors but didn't quite pan out in the majors because their swings and approaches didn't translate well to the big league level.There are also questions about Goldschmidt's bat speed; as in, some scouts think his swing might be a touch too slow and/or too long to consistently mash major league hurlers. Can he catch up to a good fastball, especially on the inner half of the plate? It's the classic "heat or cheat" question. Can he hit that good fastball, or does he have to cheat to do so, which then makes him vulnerable to off-speed stuff?An interesting comparison I recently heard from a scout who has seen him a lot the past two seasons was Ryan Shealy. While I think that's selling Goldschmidt short, it's at least food for thought. We might not see Goldschmidt until much later in the season, even if he continues to hit at a torrid pace, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that the team would bring him up before September.There are improvements in Goldschmidt's game this season, including physical (he's in better shape), and he has an improved approach at the plate. There are still reasons to be skeptical about him, but the potential rewards outweigh the risks here, making Goldschmidt worth looking at even in mixed leagues when he eventually reaches the big leagues. Given his minor league track record, we have plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic.

Top 11 for '11


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