• AFL update: Scouting the relievers

  • By Jason Grey | November 1, 2010 10:20:43 AM PDT
In my Oct. 12 Arizona Fall League preview, I included a nonexhaustive list of relievers I was interested in seeing and getting a read on to see whether they could be closer prospects that fantasy players would be interested in. Now that I've seen each of them multiple times, here are my thoughts:Jeremy Jeffress, Milwaukee Brewers: I've seen the 23-year-old former first-round pick at various points since his pro debut in 2006, and the one constant has been his ability to bring high-90s heat with seemingly little effort. The righty has touched 98 mph here in Arizona and generally has sat in the 94-96 mph range in most of his outings. That said, his secondary stuff is still a work in progress. His 77-78 mph curve has been below average, as its break generally has not been good, and I've seen it better in the past. His 87-89 mph straight changeup has been OK, and he has shown some feel for locating it when he's not slowing his arm. The bottom line is that he needs to repeat his delivery better. It's not a complicated delivery, so it's projectable that he can do so, but right now he's speeding it up and varying his release point. He has shown flashes of working his fastball on both halves of the plate, but repeating his delivery will improve his fastball command and make his curve more consistent, in addition to helping him throw more strikes.The raw stuff certainly is there for Jeffress to quickly have a late-inning role in the big leagues; he just needs to find more consistency. Jeffress tested positive for marijuana for a third time in the 2009 season and faced the threat of a lifetime ban for another offense. However, being placed on the 40-man roster during the season removed that threat, as this Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article explains.Jordan Swagerty, St. Louis Cardinals: The 75th overall pick in the 2010 draft is making his pro debut here after closing for Arizona State in 2010. Swagerty's fastball has been in the 91-94 mph range, although he occasionally throws a couple of high-80s cutters. He has an 82-84 mph slider and an 80-82 mph changeup to go with it. With the understanding that he's just now making his pro debut, I don't see him profiling as a closer down the road, but rather as more of a middle-inning or setup guy. Swagerty works quickly, efficiently and aggressively, and his good athleticism (he also was a catcher in college) allows him to keep his mechanics consistent and throw strikes. His slider needs to be tighter, and his change has flashed as a solid pitch but has been inconsistent. My biggest reservation about him is the lack of a pitch that I see as a true swing-and-miss offering.Chance Ruffin, Detroit Tigers: Ruffin also is making his pro debut here after being selected 45th overall in 2010, and he's being used as the closer for the Surprise club. He generally has been in the 93-94 mph area with his fastball with some late life down and in on right-handed batters, and he's pairing it with an 82-84 mph slider. There's some deception in his quick delivery, but it also lacks consistency, and he has had some issues throwing strikes. In addition, he overthrows at times. He has solid sweep on the breaking ball, but it has been more of a chase pitch rather than something he can bury in the bottom of the zone, and pro hitters won't offer at it much. Again, though, it's his pro debut, so we'll cut him a little slack. There's some promise here but still a bit of work to do, and I don't see him moving quickly at this point.Rex Brothers, Colorado Rockies: I wrote about Brothers in my Oct. 15 blog, and as it turned out, I wrote about him just after he posted his best velocity of the AFL, with a lot of 94s and 95s, and a plus slider at 86-87 mph. However, the very next outing, he was down about 2 mph, and his velocity has been inconsistent this fall. Consistency in all respects is really the key area of improvement for Brothers. His slider is a nasty out pitch with late, hard tilt when it's on. He can "back door" it as well, but he needs more consistent command of the pitch. The raw ability and solid two-pitch mix is there for Brothers to eventually work the ninth; now it's just about being the same pitcher from outing to outing.Jason Stoffel, San Francisco Giants: The former college closer (at the University of Arizona) recorded 25 saves in Class A last year and is sitting around 92-93 mph with some good sink here. He couples it with a 79-81 mph slider that has occasionally been good but gets soft and will back up on him at times. His fastball command also has wandered a little too much. Some pitchers don't have a ton left in the tank when they come to the AFL at the end of a long season, and I wonder whether that's the case here. Stoffel also is going to have to be careful to watch his conditioning going forward. It appears to me that he has more middle-inning as opposed to late-inning stuff right now. For what it's worth, a veteran scout did tell me that Stoffel reminded him a little of former Giants closer Rod Beck.Justin De Fratus, Philadelphia Phillies: De Fratus absolutely looks like a big league bullpen arm, with a 92-95 mph fastball that touched 96 mph once when I saw him, and good tilt on an 83-85 mph slider that can get strikeouts. A strong pitcher with a good frame who uses his lower half well, De Fratus does a good job finishing his pitches. De Fratus isn't far from a call-up and looks like he could fill a seventh- or eighth-inning role at the big league level, and from there anything can happen. Then again, he's also in an organization that left Scott Mathieson behind to dominate Triple-A hitters all year.B.J. Rosenberg, Phillies: Rosenberg appeared in only 20 games this season due to a lat strain, so we can give him a bit of a pass if he's still getting up to speed. In one of his outings I saw, he gave up three homers in four batters, all on poorly located fastballs. He has been working in the 91-92 mph range and occasionally touching 93 mph, but with not a lot of movement on it. His low-80s slider projects to "solid average," and his 80-81 mph changeup has been below average. I'm just not seeing good stuff or command right now.Josh Lueke: Seattle Mariners: The M's are hoping he can showcase himself enough to get another team to give something for him. He has been at 94-95 mph with his fastball, but his 78-82 mph slider has been more "slurvy" than I remember seeing it back when he was in the Rangers' organization; it's not the sharp pitch I had remembered. He also throws a split but hasn't really used it here. Due to Lueke's well-documented off-field troubles, it is highly unlikely he will ever put on a Mariners uniform in the big leagues.

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