The past two years, the Arnold Palmer Invitational might well have switched host names. The King is plastered across the event, but in recent years, Sunday has belonged to the man we won't see until April 8: Tiger Woods.
Last year, Woods trailed Sean O'Hair by 5 shots entering the final round. By the time the two reached the eighth tee, Tiger had cut the lead to a single stroke. Woods then tied him with a birdie on No. 15. The 16-foot putt Woods made for birdie on the tournament's 72nd hole gave Tiger his first win since the 2008 U.S. Open, and matched the biggest deficit he had ever overcome in a PGA Tour victory.
But with Woods out of the picture, who stands the best chance to don the blue blazer Sunday? Could it be the man he caught and passed last year?
O'Hair hasn't finished in the top 10 since the tour left Hawaii back in January, but he's been at least tied for a share of the lead in this event each of the past two years. The three-time PGA Tour winner has finished second, T-3 and T-14 the three times he started and finished the event (he withdrew in 2006).
O'Hair's turn for the worse last year came with four holes to go in the third round. Through 50 holes, O'Hair was 10-under, had hit 68 percent of greens in regulation and had missed just 10 of 39 fairways all week.
But over the last 22 holes, O'Hair never made a putt longer than 8 feet, 7 inches, missed nearly as many greens (10) as he hit (12) and landed tee shots in just 8 of 17 fairways. Woods gained ground on O'Hair on the front nine in the final round, where O'Hair missed 5 of 7 fairways. It's tough to hold off Tiger when you're playing like that.
Question: What was the toughest non-major course on the PGA Tour in 2009? Why, Bay Hill was, of course.
Arnie's place played to an average score of plus-2.190, the fourth-highest over/under par average on the tour a year ago. Only Bethpage, The Ailsa Championship Course and Hazeltine were more difficult. Only three holes at this event didn't play to average scores above par: Nos. 3, 12 and 13.
Compare that to last week's stop, the Copperhead course at Innisbrook, which is a difficult venue in its own right. The host to the Transitions Championship has been the second-toughest course on tour this year, and had five holes play to an average score of below par.
In three of the past five years, Bay Hill has played to at least 1 shot over par. Among the non-major stops on the PGA Tour, it ranked 11th or higher in difficulty six times since 2000.
Arnie's place has played to an average score of over par every year since 1997. Only once since 1992 did the winner break 270 (10-under par) for the week. That happened in 2003, when Woods shot a 269 ... and won by 11 shots. In a grossly oversimplified summation: This course is tough.
With every tough course comes its most vicious hole. The most difficult hole at Bay Hill last year was the par-4 16th, a 485-yard monster that played to an average score of 4.471 in 2009.
The 16th kicks off one of the best closing stretches in all of golf: Nos. 16, 17 and 18 are beautiful but they played to a combined average of 0.823 shots above par in '09. No. 16 played as the fourth-toughest hole on the PGA Tour last year, and second-hardest among the non-majors.
Last year, Tiger played the hole in 2-over for the week, making bogey on both Friday and Saturday.
The previous year, the hole was very challenging, but not to hardest-on-the-circuit levels. Its 4.288 average score placed it 71st on the tour's list of most difficult holes in 2008.
From the quotes coming out of Orlando this week among those who have seen Woods hit a golf ball in recent days, we might be seeing vintage Woods upon his arrival at Augusta. Woods is accustomed to success from the get-go in terms of his PGA Tour season. In three of the past four years, he won his first start (Buick Invitational, 2006-08).
In fact, in his first PGA Tour round of the year, Woods has never shot worse than par, with a scoring average of 69.42 as a professional.
But the Masters Tournament isn't the Buick Invitational or the Mercedes Championship. It begs the question: Has anyone ever won the Masters as his first official start of the season? The Elias Sports Bureau provided the answer for us here at ESPN Stats & Information.
Since World War II, only one player made his first official event of the year at the Masters and went on to win the green jacket. Ben Hogan did it in 1951 and 1953. Four other times in that span, a player making his first tour start of the year finished second -- including Hogan in 1955.
Justin Ray has been a studio researcher for ESPN since June 2008 and is the lead researcher for "The Scott Van Pelt Show." He is a 2007 graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism, where he studied convergence media. Send comments and suggestions to Justin.Ray@espn.com.
