• Draft: Who's hot and not

  • By Chad Ford | February 27, 2007 3:51:37 PM PST
Now that the NBA trade deadline has expired, most NBA front offices have turned their full attention to the NBA draft.Insider spoke with a number of NBA scouts and executives to get their stock of who's hot and who's not in the college ranks. Each week we'll report in the blog on what we're hearing and adjust our Top 100 accordingly. Who's HotBrook Lopez, C, StanfordThe hottest center in the draft these days is a freshman, but his name isn't Greg Oden. Yes, Oden will likely be the No. 1 pick in the draft. But Stanford's Brook Lopez is actually putting up bigger numbers of late.Lopez, along with his twin brother, Robin, was considered an elite prospect coming into Stanford. But scouts thought the brothers were at least two years away from the NBA. An early-season injury to Lopez didn't help his stock early on. But ever since a remarkable 18-point, 11-rebound, 12-block game against USC in late January, the 18-year-old 7-footer has been on fire.Over the last four games, Lopez is averaging 23 ppg, 8.3 rpg on 53 percent shooting and drawing serious looks from NBA GMs and scouts. A month ago, no one had Lopez as a likely first-round pick this season (although most scouts had him pegged as a lottery pick down the road). Now? A quick survey of NBA scouts and executive over the weekend found that Lopez was in the Top 10 on the draft boards of everyone I spoke with.While no one believes he has the upside of Oden or Washington's Spencer Hawes, big men rise on draft day and Lopez looks to be a hot name if he declares.Mike Conley, PG, Ohio StateGreg Oden may be the best draft prospect on Ohio State, but after Mike Conley's performance against No. 1 ranked Wisconsin this weekend, I'm not so sure he's the most valuable player on their team.Conley's quickly asserting himself as the best young college point guard in the country. His game-winner over No. 1 Wisconsin pushed him out of the shadow of Oden and created some serious draft buzz. He's become the darling of NBA scouts looking for steady, pure point guards who can control a team. He doesn't really have superstar potential, but in a weak point guard draft, teams love his poise and leadership. Combine that with his quickness, defense and emerging offensive game and Conley has a shot at being the first point guard taken in the draft -- if he declares. Al Thornton, SF, Florida StateScouts Inc.'s David Thorpe has been singing Thornton's praises for the past two years, comparing him to a young Shawn Marion. To date, Thornton's inconsistency, his lack of rebounding and his streaky jump shot have given scouts pause. Yes, he's one of the most athletic forwards in the country and is capable of dropping 30 points on any given night. But does he have the consistency and basketball IQ to do it in the pros?There are still plenty of questions about Thornton, but his play during his senior season is quieting his doubters. He has been on fire lately, dropping 30 points and 16 rebounds at Virginia and then following it up with a 23-point, 15-rebound performance at Maryland. Thorton has also dramatically improved his free throw shooting and continues to extend his shooting range out to the three-point line, quieting some who wondered whether he could make the transition to the three in the pros. Put Thornton on an uptempo team like the Suns or Grizzlies and he has the chance to be a very good NBA player. Put him in a super-structured system like the Pacers or Jazz and his chances of getting a big second contract diminish considerably. But with the way the league is going, it looks like Thornton's gamble to return for his senior season at Florida State has paid off well with a likely late lottery to mid first round selection in the cards.Herbert Hill, PF, ProvidenceThere are a number of interesting sleepers in the draft, but no one has come out of the blue quite like Hill. Last year, as a junior, Hill averaged 9 ppg and 4.8 rpg. This season, he's doubled his production and caught the eye of a number of scouts thanks to his great athleticism, length and shot-blocking ability. He had his best game of the season against Syracuse this weekend with 29 points, 15 boards and 8 blocked shots. Hill still needs polish and added strength. But he's a legit 6-foot-10, has the length of a 7-footer, has great NBA athleticism and has been very consistent in the Big East this year. Right now he looks like a lock for the late first round with the ability to move up into the mid first round, maybe even the late lottery, with good workouts.Jared Jordan, PG, MaristJordan is a tough point guard with the looks of a choir boy … so the John Stockton comparisons are inevitable. But they don't end there. He's not the most athletic guy out there, doesn't possess an NBA body and is a streaky jump shooter at best.But the dude knows how to play. Jordan is an amazing competitor, an elite passer and can take over a game offensively when his team needs him to.Jordan's televised game against Siena this weekend may have been his best of the season: 24 points, 15 assists, 7 rebounds, 2 turnovers and an impressive 4-for-9 from the three-point line. Right now scouts have him pegged as an early second-round steal … but I'm not so sure he'll last that long. Jordan has the ability to come in and play right away. Given the aura of Stockton that surrounds him, I wouldn't be surprised for an elite team to take him late in the first.Who's Not Joakim Noah, F/C, FloridaI know I'm going to draw the wrath of Bill Simmons and Dick Vitale here. Like Adam Morrison and J. J. Redick, Noah is the darling of college basketball fans everywhere for his amazing play in last year's tournament combined with his courageous (or was it foolish?) decision to return to Florida for his junior year despite the fact that he was a strong candidate to be the No. 1 pick in the draft.But the truth is, Noah has not been the same player this season that we saw in last year's tournament. He still has the same energy … but he hasn't had the same impact on Florida. While he's had some big games for Florida this year, he's also had his share of stinkers like his 4-point, 3-rebound performance in a loss at LSU. Noah's had seven games this season where's failed to crack double digits in points and only one game (a 24-point outburst against Ole Miss) where he's scored 20 points in a game.To put that in perspective, Noah cracked the 20-point mark eight times during his sophomore season. Yes, the Gators are talented and the team doesn't rely on Noah the way they would if Al Horford wasn't there. And yes, Noah has intangibles that don't show up in the box score. His hustle, passion and ability to alter shots make an impact that doesn't show up in the stats.But he hasn't had a season worthy of a Top 5 pick in the draft and as one NBA GM has warned, that's troublesome. "One of the biggest mistakes people make is to base a guy's draft stock on what he does in the tournament," the GM told Insider. "It's a piece of the puzzle, but just a piece. Last year it confirmed what we were already seeing, the Noah's play was improving by the game. This year, I think it's regressed and his lack of a jump shot has been exposed, giving teams a better shot at defending him. I think he's a good player, but if you take away last year's tournament, the guy's a mid first rounder."We've dropped Noah to No. 5 on our board. Another stellar tournament and he could move all the way back to No. 3 … but if he and the Gators fizzle, I'm still there's a shot that Horford goes ahead of him on draft night.Tiago Splitter, F/C, BrazilThis will be the fourth time Tiago Splitter's name will be in the NBA draft. This time he doesn't have a choice but to keep it. It could be awful timing.His stock was hurt in previous drafts over serious questions about whether an NBA team would be able to buy him out of his contract with TAU Cermaica. Now he's in automatically because of his age. This year his stock has taken another hit because of his lack of improvement. In fact, some scouts feel that he's regressed and lost some of the intensity he's shown in years' past. Maybe he needs a change of scenery. But with buyout issues looming, Splitter's stock has taken a big hit dropping from the late lottery to the mid to late first round.Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, F, UCLAMbah a Moute was another guy who saw his stock elevated with an excellent NCAA tournament. There was talk that he might be the next Ron Artest -- without the crazy.His sophomore year has been a major disappointment. He's still very athletic and a good defender, but his offensive game hasn't improved and talk of him being a lottery pick has vanished. In fact, it's not longer clear that Mbah a Moute would even be a first rounder if he declared this year.Final TimeoutWord out of the NBA league office is that the NBA will move up the Orlando predraft camp a week to late May. The event was scheduled to held June 4-8.More importantly, it appears that the NBA is going to ban all team and agent workouts before the predraft camp. The move is meant to force more middling prospects to compete in the camp. Over the past few years, the talent level has dropped with more and more prospects choosing to skip the camp and just do team and agent workouts.Now, with the NBA banning workouts until after the camp is over, some prospects may have no choice but to go -- especially those underclassmen who are trying to gauge their stock before the deadline to withdraw.

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