Cliff Lee was unownable in a fantasy league in 2007. His ERA was 6.29, he won five of his 16 starts, his WHIP was 1.52. This all made it nearly impossible for fantasy leaguers to be interested in him the following season, as well as the Cleveland Indians! Lee didn't have a notable spring training, but he was under contract and the other contenders for the fifth starter job had options or were just as underwhelming, so Lee made the team in April. Still, this wasn't noteworthy for the fantasy baseball world.
So, now that Lee has won the AL Cy Young award, how does it look now?
Lee's ascension proves that there can't be a bad late-round pick, really, because those few believers who chose him were big winners. It's more likely Lee was a free-agent pickup in April, but even then, when he won all five of his April outings with a 0.96 ERA, who believed? It's not like Lee was a hard thrower who had tantalized scouts and fans with his stuff. He was average. What was the best he could deliver?
Before Lee, the pitcher with the worst ERA in the season prior to earning a Cy Young was Pat Hentgen and his 5.11 ERA for the Blue Jays in 1995. Lee's comeback was a lot more dramatic. This is a pitcher who had won 18 games in a season, but his ERA that 2005 season was 3.79. The next season it was 4.40. To go 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA seemed impossible.
And yet, Lee managed to outpace annual Cy Young contender and very consistent Roy Halladay, as well as the new record holder in saves, Francisco Rodriguez, to take home the prize. In terms of draft-day value to a fantasy owner, there's no contest. Halladay and K-Rod were top-75 players. Lee wasn't a top-250 player. He ended up ranked fourth among all pitchers in fantasy baseball according to our Player Rater, behind only Halladay, CC Sabathia and NL Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum.
What's the record for worst ERA after a Cy Young season? OK, let's not get crazy. I know a lot of people who think what Lee accomplished for the 81-81 Indians can't be reality, and he'll go back to serving up a whole lotta hits and homers in 2009, but why couldn't this be the turning point of his career? He has ability; now he's harnessed it. He's not Jamie Moyer, either. Lee did fan 170 hitters in 2008. I don't see why Lee can't win 15 games and keep his ERA in the 3.50 range. No, he's not the first pitcher off the board for me in 2009, nor does he make my initial top 10, but he's not going to disappear, either.
My top 10 for starting pitchers in 2009 is led by names who strike more hitters out, and have been doing this consistently for more than one magical season. Lincecum is my pick for first pitcher off the board, probably early in Round 2. (Even though he just finished his second season, there were plenty of signs early on he would be a star.) Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy follow him. I would not consider Lee in that class. Similarly, I would place Halladay, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, Roy Oswalt, Josh Beckett and John Lackey ahead of him. How does the top pitcher in the American League in 2008 fall outside the top 10 for mixed leagues in 2009? Easily, that's how. Track record and strikeouts matter, too, and Lee remains someone who has had one great season only.
That said, Lee deserves a tremendous amount of congratulations for not only turning his career around, but around to something that hadn't existed before. To put into perspective how unlikely this was, take a look at some of the nasty numbers put up by unheralded veteran pitchers in 2008. The Tigers' Nate Robertson had a 6.35 ERA in 2008, and he has a couple of double-digit win campaigns to his credit. What about Joel Pineiro, who had a 5.15 ERA, but was once a 16-game winner? Sure, laugh if you want, but that is how unlikely us talking about Cy Young winner Cliff Lee is today. When it comes to last-round value in a fantasy baseball draft, it's no laughing matter.
Eric Karabell is a senior writer for ESPN.com who covers fantasy baseball, football and basketball. He has twice been honored as fantasy sports writer of the year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. His new book, "The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments," was published by Source Books and is available in bookstores. Contact Eric by e-mailing him here.
