Other than the excitement of draft day, one of the most rewarding experiences for a fantasy football owner is to execute that perfect trade at just the right moment. From the blend of compromise and conjecture in the negotiation process to seeing that confirmation email when the deal is finally accepted, the entire process can be electric. Small swaps can help signal a shift in focus on our team's roster, while blockbusters can create significant and potentially game-changing alterations to the composition of a fantasy squad.
With the trade deadline in standard leagues just one month away -- deals must be completed by Wednesday, Nov. 25 at 12 p.m. ET -- I thought it might be prudent to compile a list of key NFL players who fantasy owners should consider shipping away before their value declines, as well as assets to snatch up at a discount before their current owners realize these players' true value going forward.
Players to trade away
Every player reaches a peak in marketability during the season -- a point where returns are at a maximum compared to all other moments of the season, both in the past and yet to come. We could be at that point with Ajayi, who is coming off an historic pair of back-to-back 200-yard outings, a feat accomplished by only four other players in league history.
Trading away Ajayi now would certainly be bold, but the schedule for the Dolphins isn’t so appealing from Week 13 on. They face three of the seven stingiest fantasy defenses when it comes to running backs in the final five weeks. I'm not claiming "fool’s gold" with Ajayi’s awesome surge in production over the past two weeks. However, his owners should at least test the market to see what type of return Ajayi would net.
Last year, the Georgia product netted the fourth-highest "elusive rating" on Pro Football Focus among backs with at least 50 percent of their team’s carries, en route to finishing fifth in fantasy points per game among running backs in ESPN standard formats. This season, Gurley ranks just 24th in fantasy points per game and only 13th in elusive rating.
The reason for the dropoff can be found in Gurley's yards before initial contact per carry. The Rams’ workhorse is last among 37 backs (minimum 45 rushes) with only 1.34 yards before initial contact per rush, well below the 2.46 average for qualified backs. For added context, Gurley averaged 2.70 yards before initial contact last season.
I still believe in Gurley’s talent, but his fantasy upside appears significantly limited on a Rams offense ranked 30th in points per drive (1.41) and with his team rated 31st in run blocking on Pro Football Focus. Marketing the feature back based solely on name value, or immediately after a strong upcoming game, would be a smart move.
Speaking of elusiveness, or the lack of it, Forte ranks 21st in this metric out of 22 backs with at least 50 percent of their team’s rushing attempts. Forte had played on less than half of the Jets’ offensive snaps in two of the three past games entering Week 7. The veteran saw a sudden surge in both snap rate and touches this past Sunday, playing on a season-high 82.6 percent of snaps, and complementary back Bilal Powell registering a season-low snap rate as a result.
Forte ranks 13th in fantasy points per game among backs, but 64.6 percent of his fantasy production stems from just two games. The Jets are 24th in points per drive and, given the variance in backfield deployment we've seen from New York, Forte’s inconsistent usage is likely to continue. Given these foreboding factors and his recent inflation in marketability, I’d divest of shares while the timing is still profitable.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
While his profile might scream for us to buy low, I actually find shares of Robinson too risky to pursue. With so much offseason talk about Blake Bortles' obvious path to regression, we might have overlooked the collateral damage to that taking place. Bortles ranks 27th in the league in both QBR and yards per dropback, and Robinson has suffered as a result, with a 35 percent deflation in yards per reception.
Robinson currently sits third on the Jaguars in yards, with just one catch on 10 targets of at least 20 yards downfield. The Jaguars face a particularly brutal schedule during the fantasy playoffs, with all of their opponents from Weeks 12 to 16 currently ranking in the top nine in terms of the fewest points allowed per drive. There should still be some name value left to market here, so the premise is to sell low in some sense, yet still getting a sizable enough return based on the glory of Robinson’s 2015 metrics.
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints
Cooks is undeniably a dynamic big-play threat. Yet Willie Snead, Michael Thomas and Cooks are all within 13 percent of each other in targets per game and within 10 percent in yards per game this season. It’s become apparent Cooks is essentially a supercharged DeSean Jackson in that most of his fantasy points will come from a few huge games -- or even just a few plays -- as 70.4 percent of his fantasy output this season indeed comes from just two weeks of play.
These are rewarding, slate-shifting performances, but with such legitimate competition for targets and yardage each week, it’s realistic to expect heavy variance in his fantasy pattern. With the trio of Saints’ receivers hard to separate, Cooks might well be a player whose market value exceeds his actual value.
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals
Hill ran for a career-high 168 yards on just nine rushes this past Sunday, the highest yards-per-rush average (19.6) for a running back in any game over the last six seasons (minimum five rushes), according to ESPN Stats & Info. Hill has been on the field for just 39 percent of Cincinnati's snaps this season and has handled 45.7 percent of the rushing attempts, lower than both his rookie and sophomore rates -- and significantly lower than the 57.2 percent of snaps in which he played from Weeks 9 through 17 in his epic rookie stretch of production.
Isolated to a limiting early-down role that has proven to be subject to game flow, and more so than his backfield mate Giovani Bernard, the idea of selling Hill after what is likely going to end up as his best box score of the season could prove wise.
Players to trade for
The return of QB Jay Cutler could prove productive for Jeffery, as he has averaged 1.17 fantasy points per target from Cutler since the start of last season compared to 0.77 per target from other Chicago signal-callers over this span. While this is a seemingly small gap on the surface, it represents a 52-percent chasm in per-target efficiency. Mike Clay’s opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD) analysis lists Jeffery as being due for a positive correction in the scoring department, and the return of Cutler could help facilitate this adjustment.
Remind Jeffery’s owners of the fact that he’s currently ranked behind Brian Quick and Eddie Royal in fantasy points per game at the position this season and that you’re doing them a favor in paying even 30 cents on the dollar for their distressed asset.
Brandon Marshall, New York Jets
Clay’s OTD data also hints that Marshall is due for a positive correction in touchdown production. This rings especially true as Marshall has been the recipient of 27.9 percent of the Jets’ targets since Eric Decker was sidelined in Week 4, and is tied with Denver’s Emmanuel Sanders for the league lead with 12 red zone targets on the year. Marshall ranks just 34th in fantasy points per game among receivers, but a friendly second-half schedule signals a revival to at least high-end WR2 rates.
Cooper leads Clay’s OTD index with 2.1 touchdowns “missing” from his profile compared to the expected conversion rate for his opportunity rates this season. On pace for 91 receptions and 1,403 yards, and with a quarterback in Derek Carr who ranks second in pass grading on Pro Football Focus this season, an expected uptick in touchdown production would serve to cement Cooper’s status as a WR1 commodity. Acquiring “Coop” would be a coup before the correction comes.
2016 Raiders end zone targets:
Amari Cooper: 6 targets, 0 receptions
Mike Crabtree: 6 targets, 6 receptions
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 24, 2016
Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers
The hype surrounding Davante Adams' breakout season and Ty Montgomery's added value after gaining running back eligibility could serve to make Nelson a quality trade acquisition. I do like how Green Bay is manufacturing touches for Montgomery and would like to get him at a decent trade price (or via the waiver wire if possible), but Nelson remains the most valuable receiving asset on a Packers offense that should see Aaron Rodgers surge past his career high in passing attempts this season.
With the Packers’ pass defense ranked 28th in coverage on Pro Football Focus, Rodgers has thrown 143 passes over the past three games, the most of any three-game stretch in his career. Coming off of a lean one-catch outing in Week 7, Nelson’s value could be at its nadir right now, making it an ideal time to pursue deflated shares of this veteran wideout.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield
Pursuing a potentially short-term rental of Tampa Bay’s Jacquizz Rodgers could pay off, given the team enjoys a favorable stretch of soft rush defenses in the coming weeks. However, if you can consolidate the team’s backfield by also acquiring an injured Doug Martin, the payoff could prove very profitable for the playoff stretch. The Buccaneers face, arguably, the most inviting schedule in the fantasy playoffs -- with two games against the Saints in the mix.
Tampa Bay has given Rodgers 71.8 percent of the rushing attempts since Week 5, but we can assume Martin would slowly build to a majority of carries once he returns from a lingering hamstring injury. Given Martin’s mysterious status at present, however, his price should be quite reasonable in trade talks.