Getting 9-1 odds on a horse with a perfect 5-for-5 record would generally be considered as much of a gift as anything you'll find in Santa Claus' sack of goodies.

Unless you're talking about the 9-1 price on Nyquist in the first edition of Kentucky Derby future wagering that ended Nov. 29. In that case, if you were expecting a Ferrari, sorry, but history says you're looking at a Volkswagen Bug.

In all fairness, Nyquist is a quality colt and an absolutely worthy choice as the year's champion 2-year-old male. His connections have a Triple Crown pedigree as he's owned by Paul Reddam, trained by Doug O'Neill and ridden by Mario Gutierrez -- the same team that gave us 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I'll Have Another (who did not race beyond Sept. 5 in his three 2-year-old starts) -- and anyone who doesn't cast their Eclipse Award ballot for him ought to reconsider why they're involved in the process.

Yet with the electrifying Triple Crown sweep by American Pharoah still fresh in our minds, we have to resist the temptation to believe that racing has pulled a Marty McFly and traveled back in time to the 1970's, a rare era when 2-year-old form was an amazingly accurate barometer of Triple Crown success.

It's still 2015 and about to become 2016, and what happened earlier this year does not mean a three-decade trend has suddenly disappeared. If anything, American Pharoah illustrates why it's wise to be skeptical of Nyquist at this stage.

Though a 2-year-old champion, Zayat Stables' American Pharoah raced only three times at 2-years-old, and won easily in his two victories.

Nyquist has raced five times, winning on each occasion. Yet his margin of victory has diminished in each of his last three starts and he had to work hard to turn back arch-rival Swipe in his last two starts, capped by a half-length triumph in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile -- and in some ways that might have been a Pyrrhic victory.

None of American Pharoah's three starts at 2 came in the Breeders' Cup and his season ended on Sept. 27. Looking back, Justin Zayat, the son of owner Ahmed Zayat and racing manager for Zayat Stables, said it was a "blessing in disguise" that American Pharoah did not race in the Breeders' Cup.

Meanwhile, Nyquist has two more races on his tires -- both hard-fought wins -- and raced until Oct. 31. By winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Nyquist also put himself squarely in the sights of a hex nearly as formidable as the 37-year Triple Crown drought that American Pharoah ended.

Prior to Nyquist, there were 31 BC Juvenile winners and they were 1-for-31 in the Kentucky Derby (Street Sense was the loner winner in 2007). They were also 1-for-31 in the Preakness, where Timber Country was victorious in 1995 at Pimlico. In the Belmont Stakes, they were 0-for-31, and beyond that, Chief's Crown, the very first BC Juvenile winner in 1984, was the last BC Juvenile victor to start in the final leg of the Triple Crown.

That's a combined record of 2-for-93 in Triple Crown races and 30 straight years without as much as a Belmont Stakes starter for BC Juvenile winners.

Overall, horses who merely raced in the BC Juvenile have won just 23 of the 93 Triple Crown races (24.7 percent) from 1985 through 2015 and in the last 24 Triple Crown races the only BC Juvenile winner to even start in one of them was Hansen, who was ninth in the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

In a detailed story on the subject I wrote last month for Thoroughbred Racing Commentary , the consensus from top trainers is that generally the harder a horse is pushed at two, the less upside there is at three.

Exceptional horses can defy that conventional wisdom and the pertinent question is whether Nyquist can become a rock star, ala American Pharoah.

He could be, yet to take 9-1 odds on it in late November offers an absolutely awful risk/reward ratio, given all that can go wrong in the next five months.

While 9-1 could be the bargain of the century if Nyquist remains undefeated and arrives at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May as an odds-on favorite, the odds are stacked against him. Not only will he have to avoid injury for the next five months, he will have to continue to improve and develop with little rest through what would be a long and difficult road from his career debut on June 5 through Kentucky Derby Day.

That's asking a lot of any horse, especially one who has already become quite valuable. Two-year-old champions are a prized commodity and heightening the appeal of Nyquist is that he's from the first crop of 210 2-year-old champ Uncle Mo, who is enjoying an extremely successful first year as a sire. Coolmore America, which stands American Pharoah, also has Uncle Mo among its roster of stallions and has been gobbling up 2-year-old champions as sire prospects. It would not be much of a surprise if they open up their checkbook in a big way to land Nyquist, provided Reddam's colt does not go into a tailspin.

With all of that in the background, it's unlikely Nyquist will be allowed to accrue that many defeats before the plug is pulled on his career.

Given the foot problems that plagued American Pharoah at two, on one level it's not shocking that he was 12-1 last year in the November Derby future wagering pool, compared to Nyquist's 9-1.

Yet in the big picture, with all of those difficult races on his resume, Nyquist is a big underlay. Two of the other leading 2-year-olds, Swipe and Exaggerator, also have a lot of mileage, with seven and six races, respectively.

Chances are the winner of the 2016 Kentucky Derby has yet to make a big name for himself. The mutuel field (everyone but the 23 individual wagering choices) in that first future wager was sent off at odds of 3-5 and it's usually a safe bet. Mohaymen, who recently won the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, is intriguing with a 3-for-3 record, though his 11-1 price in future wagering seems a bit light.

But at least it beats 9-1, which was surely a weak price on a November weekend for a race in May, even for an undefeated colt.