As another wild day on the Road to the Kentucky Derby came to a revealing end, an ages-old debate was rekindled.
It's one that's more than three times older than the gap between now and the last time a horse captured the Triple Crown.
Its age is a sequoia-like 133 years young … and perhaps growing.
We're talking, of course, about racing's infamous Curse of Apollo.
Not since Apollo's victory in the 1882 Run for the Roses has a 3-year-old been able to reach the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May without the benefit of a race at two-years old. Some very good race horses have tried since then. All have failed.
The Curse popped up in Triple Crown discussions like flowers in spring time on Saturday when second choice Materiality ($5.60) registered an eye-opening length-and-a-half victory over even-money favorite Upstart in the $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.
The newest member of trainer Todd Pletcher's herd of Triple Crown candidates, Materiality now stands a perfect 3-for-3 in a career that dates back to Jan. 11 at Gulfstream, when he won his career debut. Thanks to the 100 points he picked up in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series through his win in the Grade 1 stakes, Materiality now has a guaranteed spot in the starting gate for the mile-and-a-quarter opening leg of the Triple Crown. His ability to carve out the pace and then fend off a more seasoned rival like Upstart, who was No. 5 in the most recent ESPN Top 10 3-year-old poll, paints him as a serious threat at Churchill Downs.
The date of that first race, though, labels him as a fraud … if you buy into The Curse.
Realistically, while it all revolves around the date of Jan. 1, at the heart of the issue there's nothing mystical about New Year's Day.
Consider the case of Verrazano in 2013. He was undefeated in four starts and one of the top contenders in the 139th edition of the Derby. He might have been favored, except that his first start came on Jan. 1 and the Curse of Apollo hovered over him like the Sword of Damocles.
Several factors revolve around the Jan. 1 date and give it such an imposing aura. For starters, talented horses do not debut at three by design. There's almost always a highly valid reason, such as a physical problem, that can pop up again when least expected and derail the Triple Crown hopes of horses like Pulpit in 1997 or Khozan this year. While Materiality's problems at two have been categorized as minor, their mere existence raises the possibility that even a small bump in the road can bring an abrupt end to his Derby hopes.
The lost time at two also comes back to haunt those horse who actually make to Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby is as much a test of endurance as it is of speed and heart, and for the last 133 years that lack of seasoning has humbled horses like Verrazano and so many others. While those who raced at two can blossom and develop in a measured progression, the Apollo wanna-be's have to play catch-up and usually peak too early or never at all.
As impressive as Materiality has looked -- especially on Saturday -- it seems foolhardy to believe that five weeks from now, he'll be able to slug it out with rivals like American Pharoah and Dortmund on the front end and have enough left in the tank to fend off a late bid in the last of the race's 10 furlongs.
The Curse of Apollo tells you that.
Yet even if Materiality had started on Dec. 31 or even Dec. 28, the challenge would be no different. To win the Derby in career start No. 4 will be a monumental task for Materiality because the race is so grueling. The pace will be quick, the distance longer than anything he has faced, and the horses running with him early and chasing him late will have more experience. They were also brought up to the race in a more patient manner that's more conducive to peaking at an incredibly opportune time.
Considering how Upstart ranged up to join Materiality at the half-mile pole and the two waged a fierce war until Pletcher's colt edged clear in the final furlong, the mile and an eighth Florida Derby had the look of a draining race for its top two finishers. Fortunately, the Kentucky Derby is five weeks away on May 2, leaving ample time for a battle-tested rival like Upstart, who was third in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile and this year won the Holy Bull and was disqualified from first to second in the Fountain of Youth, to rest and move forward. For Materiality, who won his first two starts by 4 ¼ lengths and then 5 ¾ lengths, bouncing back from the rigors of being seriously tested for the first time presents a new and far more difficult challenge.
That's a somewhat lengthy explanation that can be condensed into the mere mention of a curse tied to Jan. 1.
Materiality can put an end to it, but it will not be easy.
With 133 years on its side, The Curse of Apollo has taken on a life of its own and has showed no signs of fading into the sunset.
In the end, more than American Pharoah or Dortmund or Carpe Diem or Firing Line or anyone else, it may also prove to be the one rival Materiality cannot outrun.