Only a special race horse can relegate the seasonal debut -- and stunning loss -- of an undisputed champion into an afterthought.
American Pharoah seemed to fit snuggly into that role on Saturday. On a wet afternoon at Oaklawn Park, three races after Untappable went down to defeat in the Azeri Stakes, American Pharoah made his eagerly awaited 3-year-old debut. He did not disappoint.
Though he was unraced since Sept. 27, there was little sign of rust as the son of Pioneerof the Nile did what was expected of him.
He did not just capture Oaklawn's $750,000 Rebel Stakes, Zayat Stables' Eclipse Award winner prevailed with consummate ease despite running with a loose shoe. After quickly rushing out to the early lead, the sport's rising star never looked back. He glided along on a clear lead over the sloppy track and then pulled away in the stretch to record a 6 ¼-length victory that was never in doubt. "He's an amazing horse," jockey Victor Espinoza said.
With the calendar positioned at mid-March, there was little reason to quibble with Espinoza's assessment. Yet for a gifted 3-year-old like American Pharoah, it's May, in particular the first Saturday of that month, which matters most.
If American Pharoah can live up to the lofty expectations crafted for him and win the Kentucky Derby, he will indeed be an "amazing horse." Until then, he remains like every other leading Run for the Roses candidate: a horse with vast potential that will either be realized or crumble in the face of the herculean challenge of a 10-furlong race against the best hoses of his generation.
After overcoming a stumbling start that dislodged the shoe, he quickly rushed out to the early lead and the sport’s rising star never looked back. He glided along on a clear lead over the sloppy track and then pulled away in the stretch to record a 6 ¼-length victory that was never in doubt.
As impressive as American Pharoah may have been in the Rebel, drawing any type of conclusion about his chances in the Run for the Roses off Saturday's romp can be hazardous to your wagering bankroll on Derby Day.
Forget about the $750,000 purse and the 50 points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series that clinched a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs and the Rebel was no different than a spring training baseball game. It was simply a prep for something significantly more important in future months and what matters far more than the margin of victory is what American Pharoah gets out of the race. After missing so much time due to a foot injury, can he win the Derby off the conditioning gained from the Rebel and one more race, probably the Arkansas Derby?
To say no at this point is far too premature and cynical. Yet it's fair to wonder if the Rebel was more of a measured workout than a demanding race for a horse ranked third in the current ESPN 3-year-old power rankings.
Trainer Bob Baffert, for his part, liked what he saw.
"The track was very demanding. We learned a lot from this race because he handled it well. He handled the shipping and he handled the off track," Baffert said. "Once he got into the first turn and his groove, he was galloping. When he can run like that all the way around, it shows you how good he is."
The competition, though, was weak, as evidenced by the reigning 2-year-old champ's 2-5 odds after a layoff of nearly six months. There were no stakes winners among his six rivals. The second choice in the wagering - and runner-up across the finish line - was the Todd Pletcher-trained Madefromlucky, who was coming off allowance and maiden wins at Gulfstream Park.
There was also no one with enough speed to run with him in the early stages of the race. While he covered the final two and a half furlongs in an impressive 30.56 seconds, he basically galloped through the first six furlongs, leaving plenty of gas in the tank for the stretch run. His split for the initial three quarters of a mile was a dawdling 1:15.22, a clocking usually associated with cheap claimers as opposed to a Grade 1 stakes winners. To put that in perspective, a year ago, when Espinoza guided California Chrome to victory in the Kentucky Derby, they were less than a length off the lead as the pace-setting Uncle Sigh covered the first six furlongs in 1:11.80.
The way this year's Derby is falling into place, a front-runner like American Pharoah will have to be dead-fit to stand up though what promises to be demanding early fractions. Dortmund, who is No. 1 in the ESPN poll, also likes to run on or near the lead and the two Baffert-trained colts figure to be close to each other on the backstretch.
Carpe Diem, No. 2 in the ESPN poll, as well as Upstart and Firing Line, numbers four and five, respectively, also have running styles that should put them within four or five lengths or less of the early lead.
With horses like that pressing him and stalking him, American Pharoah will be pushed quite fiercely and will face the greatest challenge of his young career -- and he will have just two 2015 races to prepare for it.
One of those preps is in the books and more will be known about its value after American Pharoah's next race. These days two races are enough to prepare a horse for the Kentucky Derby, but because of American Pharoah's relatively late start at three there's no margin for error. Playing catch-up is no longer an option. The Rebel has to move him forward and the final prep has to fine tune him. Anything less and the stretch at Churchill Downs could become awfully long on the first Saturday in May.
At first glance, six furlongs in 1:15.22 against weak competition does not fit into equation. Yet special horses have a way of rendering conventional logic meaningless, like Affirmed did in 1978 when he beat arch-rival Alydar on three occasions to become the most recent Triple Crown winner.
On a March day, American Pharoah was surely special. If he can do it in May and June as well, special just might give away to words with even greater meaning -- perhaps even words unspoken for 37 years.