On the surface, El Kabeir might be as unlikely a Kentucky Derby prospect as you'll ever find.
His jockey is 54-years-old and has never ridden in the Run for the Roses. His next Grade1 win will be his first. He hasn't even won a Grade 2 stakes since 2009.
His trainer, John P. Terranova II, has started just one horse in the Kentucky Derby and that one -- Falling Sky -- finished 19th in the 2013 Derby.
The horse himself is not even his owner's most highly regarded 3-year-old. And yet, after winning Saturday's $400,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, El Kabeir re-positioned himself as a major contender to be at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
Last month, much of the luster fell off El Kabeir when he pressed the pace and finished a disappointing second in the Grade 3 Withers. But on the first Saturday in March, owner Ahmed Zayat's safety valve for 2-year-old champion American Pharoah surely looked like Kentucky Derby material at chilly Aqueduct. The grey son of Scat Daddy showed off a new dimension by lingering in ninth in a field of 10 and then launching a strong 4-wide rally under veteran jockey Chucky "CC" Lopez to win the Gotham going-away by 2 ¾ lengths over promising second-time starter Tiz Shea D.
"He got everything thrown at him today and he still managed to overcome it all," said Terranova, whose horse covered the mile and a sixteenth in 1:45.56 over Aqueduct's muddy inner-track as the 6-5 favorite ($4.60). "It was very impressive. The more you throw at him, the stronger he gets. If he continues to move forward off this, the sky's the limit."
American Pharoah may be the Zayat horse with the Eclipse trophy on the mantle, yet the division's reigning champ has yet to start at three and has not raced since September due to an injury suffered in the week leading up to the Breeders' Cup. His dazzling recent works indicate he may be as good as ever, yet with no real margin for error on his path to Churchill Downs, one small misstep in the coming weeks could be enough to knock him off the Triple Crown trail.
Meanwhile, all El Kabeir does is turn out one solid effort after another.
"It's fine with me," Terranova said about playing second fiddle to Zayat's Bob Baffert-trained American Pharoah. "Maybe we don't get as much pressure. We're doing our thing, I'm letting [American Pharoah] do his thing and hoping it all works out."
So far, so good for a horse whose name, with all due respect to Bruce Springsteen, means "The Boss."
"I actually thought it was a strong race," Terranova said. "Some of the speed figure services confirmed it."
Whether El Kabeir would be able to carry his speed over a demanding 10-furlong mountain like the Kentucky Derby had been a big question mark hovering over Zayat's "other" 3-year-old. Yet how the Gotham played out helped to erase at least some of those concerns. More will be known if all goes well and El Kabeir returns to the Big A on April 4 for the mile-and-an-eighth Wood Memorial on the oval's main track, but now the Gotham and his strong closing kick were steps in the right direction.
"He broke good but those horses broke better," Lopez said. "They had gas and he quickly got shuffled back. I tried not to panic. I was on the best horse in the race. When he changed leads turning for home, he exploded. So I'm not worried about the distance any more. Today he showed us everything we've tried to teach him in the mornings, sitting behind horses and getting that dirt in the face. He was much better to ride today than the last two times."
If Lopez has any concerns about El Kabeir, it's being able to stick with him. As a horse climbs the ladder of the success, it's not unusual for a journeyman like Lopez to lose the mount to a rider with Hall of Fame credentials.
His association with El Kabeir started when Calvin Borel was unable to ride the 3-year-old in the Jerome back in January due to the death of his sister-in-law. Lopez was brought in as an emergency substitute and guided El Kabeir to a 4 ¾-length victory. That Terranova stuck with Lopez after the loss in the Withers was a sign of confidence, but Lopez is taking no chances and will not allow himself to daydream about riding in the Kentucky Derby. He has no interest in playing the role of the heart-broken high school kid who loses his prom date to the captain of the football team.
"I've been taking it race by race, figuring at some point they're going to want to take me off the horse," Lopez said. "I've been riding him like it's the last time I'll get on him. Hopefully I'll ride him in the Wood because I still look at it on a race-to-race basis because I don't want to get my heart broken.
"As I've said, it was nice to know I was still in demand to ride this type of horse. They could have chosen from a 100 different riders to ride him in the Jerome and they picked me. Whatever happens, that's a really good feeling."
In words that should comfort Lopez, Terranova has -- at the moment - no plans to make a switch.