In the end, the answer became rather simple.
The great debate over 2014's Horse of the Year was reduced to a hush on Saturday with each graceful stride that carried California Chrome closer to the finish line.
For me, anyway.
By winning the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby on turf, California Chrome added that final line to an already impressive resume that lifted him above everyone else, including the colt that narrowly defeated him in the controversial Breeders' Cup Classic, Bayern.
Prior to Saturday, Bayern had been my HOY choice, but the Hollywood Derby was a game-changer because of the challenge rolled up in it. Not for the field he faced. The competition was on the weak side for a Grade 1 stakes, and a horse as accomplished as California Chrome had a huge class edge over his five rivals.
What mattered more was the racing surface.
Trainer Art Sherman took a gamble in racing California Chrome on turf, which could have backfired and knocked the Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner out of the Horse of the Year picture.
In terms of numbers, California Chrome now has four Grade 1 victories, matching the total of Main Sequence and giving him two more than Bayern. Yet it's not just the number of Grade 1's. It's their importance.
The four biggest races of any year -- on any surface -- are the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic. California Chrome won two of them and finished in a dead-heat for fourth and third in the other two. In those defeats, he lost by 1-3/4 lengths and a neck, respectively.
California Chrome was not undefeated like Main Sequence, but he raced five more times, increasing the risk of defeat, and faced significantly better competition than the turf star throughout the year. He finished 2014 with a record of six wins in nine starts and had just one weak effort, a sixth-place finish behind Bayern in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby. Bayern had a record of six wins from 10 starts with two dismal days, as he finished last in the Travers and next-to-last in the Preakness.
In the eyes of Santa Anita's stewards, Bayern may have won the year-end showdown in the Breeders' Cup Classic. But in terms of a body of work for all 12 months, it was game, set and Horse of the Year, California Chrome, the Grade 1 winner on dirt AND turf.
Which brings us to a rather logical conclusion thanks to a somewhat illogical path. In most years, when a horse wins both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, that is usually enough to wrap up the 3-year-old championship and make him a highly attractive Horse of the Year candidate.
California Chrome can -- and probably will -- win both awards this year, but it may have taken a victory on turf in late November to serve as the clincher for a horse that captured the first two legs of the Triple Crown.
Strange? Of course. Yet in a year that saw a Triple Crown near-miss, a brilliant 3-year-old filly who flopped in her lone race against males, and a Breeders' Cup Classic that will be remembered more for a disqualification that didn't take place than a thrilling three-horse duel to the wire, should we have expected anything else?