As the racing industry collectively holds its breath in anticipation of whether American Pharoah will indeed race in the Travers Stakes, little has happened on a racetrack to indicate that the Zayat Stables champion is showing any noticeable signs of fatigue after becoming the first horse in 37 years to sweep through the grueling ordeal of the Triple Crown.
It's generally historical facts and statistics that have spawned notions that American Pharoah's itinerary will not include Saratoga Springs, New York, on the afternoon of Aug. 29.
Saratoga's famed reputation as a "Graveyard of Favorites" is well-documented and even the mighty Secretariat succumbed to the hex in the 1973 Whitney at the Spa.
American Pharoah's trainer, Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, may have just won the Haskell for the eighth time with his Triple Crown champion, but he's just 1 for 5 in the Travers and only a year ago, he watched his seventh Haskell winner, Bayern, finish last in the Travers.
Yet in terms of his performance in the William Hill Haskell Invitational and the way he has been training since that Aug. 2 race, American Pharoah is giving off every sign to his connections that he's actually progressed since his classic victories in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
That why Justin Zayat, son of owner Ahmed Zayat and racing manager for Zayat Stables, said Thursday, "Put a gun to my head right now, it's looking good [about racing in the Travers]. The horse is training well. He's showing no signs of regressing."
The final decision on the Travers will be made after the 3-year-old works at Del Mar on Sunday, and Justin Zayat was quick to point out that if there's anything unsatisfying about the work, American Pharoah will not be a part of the Midsummer Derby at the Spa. "If the work is not good or there's anything subpar about it," he said, "then we won't go." Yet so far, American Pharoah is acting as if he's up to the grand challenge that would await him at Saratoga.
"He's training well, so why not go?" Justin Zayat said. "It's important for him to run in the Travers. The sport needs it."
The Haskell was the first sign that American Pharoah weathered the storm of the Triple Crown trail brilliantly. Many horses head into a tailspin after competing in the Triple Crown, yet according to Len Friedman, an original partner at Ragozin Data and Publishing, an industry leader in performance ratings, the Haskell was the fastest effort of American Pharoah's nine-race career.
Known in handicapping circles as "The Sheets," lower numbers are better on the Ragozin scale, and Friedman said American Pharoah received a 2 ½ for his 2 ¼-length victory in the $1.75 million Haskell, an improvement of 1-1/4 points off his previous best figure of 3 ¾ which he has registered four times this year, including the Derby and Belmont.
"In terms of overall development, it's a good number for him," Friedman said. "At the weights (3-year-olds receive a weight advantage when they race against older horses), he's probably the fastest horse out there."
Justin Zayat was equally impressed by the Haskell in terms of both the final time of 1:47.95 on the toteboard and what his eyes told him.
Friedman also noted horses coming off a new career top number are often prone to make a backward move in their next race, and that could make the Triple Crown champion vulnerable. Yet in American Pharoah's case, the jump was quite modest which could bode well for his ability to handle it and continue to improve as the year goes on. "Someday he'll hit a number he'll react to," Friedman said. "I don't know if it's this one. It's not a big move."
In addition, in the Travers, two of American Pharoah's main rivals, Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red and Belmont Stakes runner-up Frosted, are in the same boat. Though both gained the experience of racing over the track in the Spa's Jim Dandy, they each posted top figures slower than American Pharoah's. Friedman said Frosted received a 4 1/4 for finishing second behind Texas Red by a half-length, while Texas Red chalked up a 4 3/4 for a slightly less demanding trip.
Even if American Pharoah runs back to his 3 ¾ in the Belmont, both Frosted and Texas Red would have to make another forward move to catch him.
"We're all on the same page going into the Travers," Justin Zayat said. "Texas Red and Frosted also are coming off big efforts, which is awesome. You want to see horses come into a race off their best race and see how everyone will stack up. I'm sure the connections of the other horses will be excited about a rematch with us and we are too. Wherever we go, we know he's going to run against good horses. No one is going to hand us anything."
Numbers aside, the 23 year-old Zayat said if the Haskell gassed American Pharoah, there's been no sign of a "bounce" during his recent training at Del Mar. "All indications with the horse are that he came out of the race really well. He's training like a machine right now, doing really well. So far it looks like he's not bouncing after that race in the Haskell," he said.
"It's a credit to Bob and the horse what we're seeing. He went through the whole Triple Crown trail and it's a grueling process and usually the average horse can't sustain it. They'll regress and they won't be the same after that. But he's a gift from God. You'll never see a happier horse. The energy we saw in January is the same energy we're seeing now, even after all he's been through. Shipping back and forth, it's amazing how he's held his weight."
Of course, Sunday's work will be the acid test, and afterwards Baffert and the Zayats will huddle and rule thumbs up or down on the mile and a quarter Travers.
Yet for now, Justin Zayat admits it's difficult to contain his enthusiasm about handing American Pharoah a challenge worthy of a Triple Crown winner in a setting as glorious as Saratoga.
"The Travers is a prestigious race," Justin said. "For the horse to win the Triple Crown, the Haskell and the Travers, it could go down as the greatest single season of all time if one horse could accomplish all of that. The horse definitely needs to be ready to roll to do that, and he's showing positive indications now. He just amazes us every day."
In June, American Pharoah put an end to a 37-year drought. Now in August, there's the exciting prospect that he could become the first Triple Crown winner in double that time -- 74 years -- to mimic Whirlaway in 1941 and add the Travers to his list of victories.
It's been a tense wait since the Haskell, but the anxiety will soon come to an end. In just a few more days we'll finally know if that historic possibility is simply wishful thinking or the makings of the biggest event Saratoga has seen in decades.
Stay tuned.