• Pharoah worth pulling for

  • By Bob Ehalt | June 5, 2015 10:29:44 AM PDT

Somewhere there has to be a Yogi Berra-ism that would be a perfect fit for Saturday's $1.5 million Belmont Stakes.

After all, American Pharoah is an odds-on, 3-5 morning-line favorite. Of the 90,000 or so fans who will be at Belmont Park Saturday, none of them will be disappointed if he wins and becomes the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years. He's won six straight races since a loss in his career debut, including the Preakness by seven lengths just three weeks ago. He's already beaten every one of the seven rivals that will attempt to tackle him on Saturday.

Sorry, Ray Romano, but everyone loves American Pharoah.

Or do they?

For as much as the Zayat Stables 3-year-old will be an overwhelming favorite on the toteboard and in the hearts of most observers, there's a growing number of handicappers lining up to take a stand against him. They are supported by 37 years of history and 13 near-misses in the Triple Crown during that stretch, including some by horses such as Spectacular Bid, Smarty Jones and Big Brown, who seemed as likely as him to complete the sweep but didn't.

These days, the popular theory says horses are not durable enough to withstand the rigors of three races in five weeks capped by a grueling mile-and-a-half test and that a fresher horse will inevitably beat American Pharoah and extend the insufferable Triple Crown drought into a 38th year.

Mix it all together, and it's a scenario shaped along the lines of Yogi's famous "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."

If that's so and if you're "dining" on Saturday evening, then join the crowd. American Pharoah is going to win the Belmont Stakes.

That would normally seem like a remark ripe for Captain Obvious, since it involves a 3-5 morning-line favorite, yet with so many wise guys opposing him, it's somewhat of a contrarian stand to say he will actually do something no horse has accomplished since 1978.

Just a year ago, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome failed to complete the sweep, finishing in a dead-heat for fourth as a 4-5 favorite. Yet he was not what American Pharoah seems to be. California Chrome was an obscurely bred colt who blossomed into a champion -- and Horse of the Year -- at 3.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, American Pharoah is impeccably bred. He was also a champion at 2, and only a handful of superstars have been able to maintain dominance over their crop as both a juvenile and at 3 years old. Of the 13 near-misses since 1978, the only one who was a champion at two was Hall of Famer Spectacular Bid. Not so coincidentally, each of the last four Triple Crown winners (Affirmed in 1978, Seattle Slew in 1977, Secretariat in 1973 and Citation in 1948) were all champions at 2.

It takes an exceptional horse to dominate at 2 and 3 -- not a freak for a few months, which best describes some of the close-but-no-cigar Triple Crown hopefuls -- and that quality inspires confidence that the three races in five weeks will not humble him.

Lest we forget, 25 years separated Triple Crown winners Citation and Secretariat, so the challenge is indeed supreme. Yet until Saturday's race proves or disproves it, American Pharoah has the look of that oh-so-rare champion that comes along only once in a few decades -- no matter what the trio of sweeps in the 1970s tell us -- and has the right stuff to overcome what's being painted as an impossible task.

American Pharoah may not have raced at Belmont Park -- unlike the four aforementioned Triple Crown winners -- but was new to both Churchill Downs and Pimlico as well and that did not stop him. Owner Ahmed Zayat has even said his homebred colt was not particularly fond of the racing surface at Churchill Downs, but he still won by a length. His solid training at Belmont Park the last few days adds even more credence to the belief American Pharoah will rule the sport on Saturday.

"When he finally came down the stretch he was moving so fluid, just like he usually does. It was a very positive gallop," Baffert said about his colt's training on Thursday. "He looks like he's just moving along like he's always moved along. It was very comforting to see that."

For Baffert, Saturday will mark an unprecedented fourth try at a Triple Crown sweep. Back in 1998, Real Quiet fell short by a nose after leading by a seemingly insurmountable four lengths at the eighth pole. Perhaps Baffert's luck in the third jewel finally balances out Saturday. We'll see.

Meanwhile, jockey Victor Espinoza will take his third swing at a Triple Crown after missing last year with California Chrome. His two previous attempts at everlasting fame in the sport were not the best days for him or his horses (the Baffert-trained War Emblem was eighth in the 2002 Belmont after stumbling at the start). Yet as the 43-year-old rider said Wednesday, perhaps "the third time will be the charm."

There are only seven rivals lined up to face American Pharoah, and that will make matters easier for the speedy son of Pioneerof the Nile. Without a rabbit in the field to push him in the early stages, he just might take the lead at the start, and, as he did in the slop-fest at Pimlico, not look back.

Those who choose to run with the reigning champ will pay a price, including Materiality, who is priced at 6-1 since he closed nicely to finish sixth in the Kentucky Derby after an awkward start. If all goes well Saturday, he'll chase American Pharoah from the start and, even with five weeks rest, will not be up to the demands of keeping pace with him in the stretch.

Frosted (5-1), who closed for fourth in the Derby, looks best for second, and Keen Ice (20-1), who had a rough trip and was shut off for about a furlong when seventh in the Run for the Roses, is the pick to complete the trifecta. Madefromlucky (12-1) is following the same script as 2014 Belmont winner Tonalist by making his Triple Crown debut off a win in Belmont's Peter Pan and can complete the superfecta. Drought or not, just make sure you put American Pharoah at the top of those exotic wagers.

"There was a lot of speculation going into the Derby," said Justin Zayat, son of owner Ahmed Zayat and racing manager for the family's stable. "I just wanted to win the Kentucky Derby, and everything was candy after that. Once we got the Derby, I said we'd take it from there. Once we got through the Preakness, I can't lie, of course, I've been dreaming. The way he won, the way he's been doing things, it's impossible not to dream. "Barring any unfortunate circumstances, I have all the confidence in this world that he can pull this off. Can he handle the mile and a half? You don't know, until you know." And there it is, folks. The Yogi-ism. You don't know, until you know.

After Saturday, rest assured we'll know.


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